Good Morning, Friend
Below you can find a few notes for today's Catterick card, taken from my members post. I had no interest in today's 3m+ chases for official 'tipping' purposes, but as the flat season gets rolling they'll be more of the below through a racing week. If nothing else, hopefully an interesting read. As is often the case I've used the excellent Geegeez Gold racecards.
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To Catterick...
1.40 – Mokaman – 4/1, 9/2 – may be an ok price here… both his career wins at the track, 2/3,3p around here, so whatever he does today he’s one for the ‘Catterick Tracker’, as he will be winning here again one day. He’s 11lb below his last winning mark which was here last June. He’s now 0/13,2p on the AW, and a chance they’ve been using his last five runs to get his mark turf mark down, which is clever and ‘legitimate’ handicapping, if running him on surfaces he hates. He should race prominently from his low draw and I thought a big run was incoming.
Some stats of interest to note down…
Grant Tuer is 9/26, 15p all runners at the course in last year, +55.
Trainer/Jockey (O Stammers) all rides… 11/52, 18p, +12.
He’s well handicapped and will win again at some point, likely around here. But if he doesn’t take this, one for the notebook, as are some of those stats.
Val De Travers is the main danger/correct fav – horses just shouldn’t do what he did 4 days ago – he pulled for the whole race really, looked tricky under pressure, and still won. IF/when he learns to settle, he’s going to have even more in the tank. He does look very well handicapped. But, he could blow a gasket. Maybe they’ll be fighting is out.
2.15 – Vadamiah – 5/2, 11/4 – I’m not saying that’s value for a 13 runner 5f sprint handicap for all if I was trackside I’d probably have a nibble to pay for a couple of pints, as a chance he just makes all again as he did here 14 days ago, where he beat a couple of these in the process also. At a glance, I didn't like much else, but remember it's usually just a quick 'flick through'.
However, I did want to flag him so that I could highlight a stats…
Do note when P Midgley books P Mulrennan… now 9/20,11p in the last year, +49 points. It may well be worth following ‘blind’ this season, price allowing. You can see the odd big priced sprint handicapper popping up.
Bicep – 12/1 – one for the tracker i think (or maybe he will go well today), second start for Grant Tuer, those trainer track stats above apply of course… and with Sam James riding, 6/12, 9p at the course in the last year, +21.
You may read that stat and conclude this one is worth a go on that basis. He is unexposed, second start for yard, second start of season, and will appreciate a return to better ground. Some of his form for Archie Watson reads well as a 2YO. Time will tell whether he’s trained on, but just the sort this trainer will do well with at some point. Maybe they will be aggressive over this 5f, or they’re getting his mark down – he may want a return to 6f, or as he gets older even 7f+. Bred to stay. Keep an eye on him.
2.50 – Colinton – 7/2 – may be ok here, depending on what War Defender does, I thought Jason Hart may try and make all. The yard had a winner recently, do well in flat staying contests, are 4/15 +32 all runners around here in the last 5 years and…
Jason jumps back on having not ridden LTO. The horse is back down in trip 2f and LTO was only 10 days after his last start, where he won. His form reads well on the AW, and he’s the odd turf run when younger/over shorter. I think he’ll be the one to catch entering the final 2f here, and they may not do. A Micky Hammond shorty will be flying at him no doubt, give me strength.
4.30 – Ghathanfar – 12-14/1 – a shame not 4 places as he looks interesting EW for interest, but maybe 3 places is ok here. He should race prominently enough. What interested me… well he won on his 5th start after a break last season, which may just be random, or he’ll now come into himself. Tom Eaves is back on, and he appears to get a tune out of him, 1/14,7p, and he hasn’t been on his last 5 runs.
He does have a likeable place record in turf handicaps, 2/21, 10p, that’s not bad for one at this level and plenty of decent efforts last season, inc nearly winning a 6f, 19 runner York C4 off 82 (will they be aiming him back there at some point this season?) Of some interest also is that they step him up in trip to this easier 7f- is this what he now wants as he’s got older? A chance that is the case and in any case I can see why they’re trying it. He ran ok at Thirsk 11 days ago on ground he may not have liked. I thought he was interesting anyway, but again, worth keeping an eye on – he will pop up somewhere in the coming weeks given his profile/best efforts last season / this mark. Maybe a 6f cavalry charge is more his thing.
The fav may be hard to beat, for all a quick turnaround, but lightly raced, in form. Still, beatable I think, for all some decent efforts, unexposed, yard in form etc
I thought Ventura Rascal may try to make all, I suppose in his case I thought 7/2 was about right, he is drifting a bit, but could get an uncontested lead. I thought interesting he won on second start of last season, for all his return was much better than this year’s return at Leicester. He could just be out of form for now, that niggled at me. But he may give this a good go.
Safran – 11/1 – worth keeping an eye on for O’Meara, 0/10,1p in career to date here, he did win twice in France when younger, on decent ground/AW. I wonder if his mark has been too high, possibly. He ran some ok races last season, and ‘staying on’ over 8f in a couple – maybe this 7f will be sharp enough today? Or they’ll be ultra aggressive, it could be a pipe opener or he’s here to run his race. O’Meara’s have been far enough forward, plenty fit enough on return. Of further interest, he’s had a wind op since last season, and that could also be a reason for further improvement this year, esp if now more acclimatised. He’s the sort O’Meara will do well with when it clicks. That could be today, but certainly at some point.
That’s all for today’s musing, hopefully something of interest there today or moving forwards – certainly the odd stat worth noting, and horse for the notebook I think. GL if using any of that as a 'way in' to having a bet.
Happy Punting,
Josh
