Good Afternoon, Friend

You can find today's post HERE >>>

It now includes my own notes, which I've reproduced below.

Do Note: I'm doing by best to get stats content posted the evening before, by 6pm, esp Wed>Sat, maximising time for you to flick through when convenient. At the moment I keep everyone updated of new posts/content via the free telegram group >>> , but if you like flicking through and finding your own winners, just bookmark the blog at stop by after 6pm most days, any 'notes' follow 10am-12pm. (blog here >>>) I can't email out every time of course, for all it won't be remaining free for too much longer.

Thanks to those of you who expressed an interest in potentially getting a horse with out RTP Syndicate, to be trained by Toby Lawes south of London, and to be campaigned predominantly in Central/Southern England. Toby has 47 winners so far from just 326 runners, but in NHF races is 7/32,16p, and over fences, 20/92, 35p. He can train a chaser, which is what we like. He's young, hungry and great fun also. (which is important to us, we like to have an enjoyable time trackside/yard visits etc)

If such a proposition interests you, do let me know using the form HERE >>> (don't forget to click 'submit') If we get enough interest, we'll go shopping! :)

*

Today’s Tips & Notes

A couple of chase pokes today...

1.25 Bangor – Autonomous Cloud – 6/1 (Lad/Uni, 7.2 Betfair X)

1.25 Bangor – Celebre DAllen – 9/1 (10.2 Betfair X)

3.35 Bangor – Might I – 9/2

*

Notes…

Autonomous Cloud – 6s looked more than fair to me and I wanted a 2nd season chaser onside if I could make the case, with the promise of much more to come this season. This lad had a pipe opener in a Novice hurdle LTO (such types 3/3 in this) and I can only assume with this race in mind – that fitness advantage could be worth bundles here today. 3m around in here soft should be just fine, with decent enough runs last season, especially at Uttoxeter when beating Iron Bridge ( subsequent 2nd Welsh Nat, close in Haydock G3) in a solid enough race. His run in The Midland’s National was very good also for one so inexperienced, the trip maybe stretching him on heavy, and he was probably feeling that race when running at Ayr, for all it may have happened too quickly too early there, as they do go hard for the first circuit on better ground. He wants softer ground, hopefully he tracks the pace, and he should be leaving this mark behind at some point over fences. He had a wind op in the off season before Worcester and that could elicit further improvement also. This lad appears on the stats list above also, and Fergal is 8/22,11p with his handicap chasers here in last 5 years, 4/9 last 2.

Celebre D’Allen – whether this 12YO finds this all too much we shall see but he was in career best form last season, is lightly raced for his age, has claimer ‘of the moment’ onboard after his Badger Beers heroics, the yard are in fine form (4/16,8p last 14d) and the horse goes well fresh. He bolted up on his return last season in a Vets race, before cruising into contention in the Becher chase from 2 out, before that trip/very heavy ground (almost unraceable), found him out on the long run for home. Still, he moved like 140 may be workable, and he gets a useful 7lb claim here. He signed off with a 2L defeat in The Topham, suggesting there’s plenty of life left yet in these legs. I thought he’d be primed here, unlike a few, and may creep into this and put down a challenge, if repeating his best efforts from last season. He looked overpriced to my eyes.

I didn’t really like much else, if the 10YO Shan Blue wins this at 9/4, so be it. He may do, but his last couple of runs didn’t suggest this mark was a gift, and he’s older again. Pull Again Green keeps running his race but it doesn’t suggest he’s got much, if anything, in hand and with the rest there are the fitness unknowns on seasonal return, and they all have various other questions also. I did stare at Bretney for a time who may try and make all, but up in class here, and he has needed his last three seasonal returns, but his form took off last season and it’s not impossible a bit more to come this year. He may give it a good go and if nearly fit enough, could hold on for a place, but hopefully not blasting off never to be caught. A chance he struggles to get away over 3m at this level. But a likeable type. I suspect he's got another regional national in him somewhere. If this were proper Good/GS (maybe it will ride like that but they water plenty over the summer so it could be soft enough), i’d be more interested in Monte Igueldo, who will pop up at some point this season over 2m4-3m.

Might I – I couldn’t leave him at 9/2 here, from the stats list above (on the blog), Harry in decent form 3/8,5p last 14d, and 2/5,3p with Bryan C in that time. This horse is lurking on a dangerous mark of 135, and if getting back to his hurdling form of Jan-March 2023 off 142-45, this field simply won’t live with him. He’s won fresh and was obviously a decent novice hurdler, beaten only by Constitution Hill and Jonbon in a couple of his earlier races. He was then 2nd in the G1 Mersey Novices Hurdle at Aintree 2.5 years ago. There’s a chance he got over-rated after those efforts, 145 his upper limit, but he got beat 4l in the Martin Pipe of 2023, lugging 11-12, in a race which had depth. If he was rocking up here on seasonal return after that effort, 10lb lower, he’d be an odds on shot against these. Of course, last season they tried to make a chaser of him and he didn’t look a natural in his first three starts. They reverted to hurdles but the damage was probably done mentally by then and I’m not sure Fry’s were firing fully earlier in the year. This horse's wins have all been Oct-Dec also, so maybe this is his time of year. He didn’t run badly at Aintree, given far too much to do, before back up to 3m at Haydock, a distance he doesn’t stay for all bang there 2 out. He’s won fresh before and this looks a weak C2 to my eyes, for all more to come from Jipcot and Itsnoteasy, but they have questions also. As there is Aston Martini for all Henderson not firing on all cylinders and maybe still some issues there. Hopefully Harry has him tuned up, I suspect the break has done him good, as will being trained as a hurdler, and he really should pick up something from this mark, still only 8. He will demolish these off this mark if returning to his best handicap hurdle form before last season, we’ll see if he does! (assuming he's now just not a pace-less/ trip-less boat!)

*

Good luck with any bets,

All the best,

Josh

p.s don't forget to register your interest in a horse with Toby Lawes, HERE >>> (obviously it isn't binding! But will give us an idea)