I hope you had a great weekend. I was lucky enough to trek across to Bristol and catch up with some old university housemates. An enjoyable trip and I do like that part of the world, but it's back to business, for all that the blog kept ticking over.
It's quiet on the jumps front over the next couple of weeks which is annoying, especially as I found some form in July with my 3m+ tips but the jockeys & staff deserve a couple of weeks respite. It will slowly crank up again when they return as we hurtle towards October/November and the 'winter' horses. I can't wait.
However, there's plenty of flat action to muse over and I like to try and highlight something of interest on the blog, today's 'Flat Pointers' repeated below. These are not 'tips' as such, but hopefully I flag something of interest and it's an enjoyable read nonetheless...
Let's crack on...
Flat Pointers
One trainer in focus today, and that's Tom Dascombe...
I/we may well have missed the boat but he's been firing them in recently and shows no signs of stopping just yet, 10/34, 13p in the last 14 days, +6 SP, 60% rivals beaten which is 9% above the yearly average. 20/74, 32p last 30 days.
He has one runner in the 16.45 Ffos Las, and x4 at Notts (17.20, 17.50, 18.50, 19.20)
Where should I focus... (cue a blank day for Tom!)
I should mention The Nu Form Way in that FL race, although at 7/2 could well be short enough. I did find it intriguing/odd that Jane Elliot goes there for one ride (her only ride on the card) when she could have had x4 for Tom at Notts I assume, but maybe not best to over think that.
Tom/Jane are 5/13,5p +8.8 in the last 14 days, Jane 5/19,5p all rides in that time and she's a jockey to keep on the right side of, the sort the market may continue to underestimate.
The horse... well i'm not sure there are many holes in the fav hence why he's 5/4 (unless he's tricky/needs knowing/may not follow up- possible), but this one gets 1st CP which may help, is down in class and 2nd run of the season and will no doubt strip plenty fitter for the return 15 days ago. The winner of that race went into it with a mark of 80 and the second has since dotted up so off 64 probably did as well as to be expected, esp if rusty.
His previous two maiden races had some depth, 11 subsequent winners between them. There's no pace on paper in this and I wonder if Jane may try and steal it from the front, not impossible, especially with the 1st CP on. He was at least 'running on' when last seen.
Anyway, that's probably enough for a 7/2 shot but he could give the fav something to think about, especially if it's tactical.
There may be more to get stuck into at Notts for those who like an EW price...
Skittlebombz goes in the 17.20 for Dascombe/ Pierre, but is 7/4 so not much to shout about there. Maybe that will be there only winner today on the card but there is one more Dascombe horse of interest to my eyes, at the odds...
Almighty Rave... a 15/2 shot, maybe more here to get stuck into at an EW price - it's a nursery handicap after all.
Some stats though...
- Tom D is 4/21, 11p +22 SP with all runners here in the last 2 years.
- He's 3/13, 7p +27 in that time at Notts with his 2YOs (both of his Notts runners mentioned so far)
- Of further interest, in all Nursery Handicaps in the last 2 years, Tom is 12/53, 20p, +26 SP, and 1/5,3p at Notts.
- Pierre- Louis Jamin is 1/2,1p on Tom's horses, that winner coming on 23rd July.
- The jockey himself looks like he knows the time of day for a 5lb claimer, 4/13,6p +4 SP in the last 14 days, 65% rivals beaten, the best form he's ever been in to date (14/147 all rides in 341 days before that) (he's got one for Karl Burke in the 18.20 also)
Almighty Rave... well the jockey rode her LTO which is a plus, he makes handicap debut and arrives in form- a running on effort at Thirsk over 7f suggesting this 8f trip could unlock plenty more - doing something different at least and getting better with experience. Her Newmarket maiden on 26th June had some depth, beaten 5 1/4 l at 125/1, the winner Inspiral has since won a listed race at Sandown, RPR 102, and the 2nd is now rated 85 after a recent win also. She ran as well as could be expected there.
To my eyes (admittedly mainly 3m+ chase eyes these days!) if she builds on that Thirsk run and improves for this trip, she should be bang there in a race like this, which looks weak enough.
It is a C5 nursery handicap mind but she may provide some entertainment for EW change on a quiet Monday. Take a look and see what you think.
As could...
Lady Ziana in the 19.20, with 4/5 places to aim at, 6/1.
My 'way in' to this race was looking at the Dascombe horse but she's got questions galore, for all down in class and maybe the yard form will rub off on her one day.
Lady Ziana - that run 15 days ago looks one of the better recent efforts on show here and she's interesting from a pace angle also, I think she will be in the front 2/3 through this, in the perfect spot.
Plenty of her form reads well and many of her races have produced winners galore, the Muss run two starts ago over 8f when outpaced/hampered early - 3 of the front 4 have won x4 between them. The Beverley run before that the two in front of her both then won again and that Notts run over this CD was very hot for the grade...
..7 subsequent winners including the horse who beat her then racking up a hat-trick, the rest well beat - fair to say she bumped into one there, last winning off 71. The 4th, 5th and 6th have won 4 between them also.
This could well be the weakest race she's ever run in, certainly last four starts.
Some trainer stats...
- David Brown is 11/55, 25p 20%, +11 in handicaps with horses aged 3 on turf, in the last 2 years.
- Within those stats he's 4/12, 7p +12 when Graham Lee rides, and 0/1,1p on the AW. (he now knows the horse having ridden her LTO)
Maybe she wants a road but it should be drying out all day if the forecast is correct. (good, good to soft in places as of 9am)
Again, it's a C6 3YO handicap (the lowest grade, inconsistent animals, the age group where they can take a big jolt forward run to run, all in theory 'unexposed') so not one to re-mortgage on but I thought 6s looked generous enough in this line up on most of that form mentioned above and if GL can get his fractions right, and the ground is fine for her, i'd be mildly surprised were she out the first 4 here, 5 places with a few bookies also. If running her race of course.
So, a few thoughts there to mull over as you please.
A couple of interesting EW pokes I think, to my eyes at least, and I may have some beer money on them EW for interest. But as always a few trainer snippets to tuck away if you like that sort of thing.
GL with any bets as always,
Josh
