Hello Friend
We if it's not broke, don't fix it.. and whereas in months gone by emailing you a tip seems to have been a curse, I can't stop emailing you winners at the moment. So, i'll repeat today's free post again for you, below...
Yesterday went to plan and I know a few of you had the 46/1 forecast so well done. Some of my members combined my tip, a tip from one of said members who is a fine judge himself (over +100 points since September for his tips in the comments of members' posts) and the tips from SP2A to get the tricast up, over 300/1. Madness. One had £5 on it, not a bad return!
Anyway, no time to dwell...
TIPS
(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 2/7,4p, +17.5)
2.35 Catt -
Gonalston Cloud - 1 point win - 11/1 (gen)
Itstimeforapint - 1 point win - 9/1 (gen)
I think there are reasons to take on the top two in the market and it's just the sort of scenario I like - if/when one of them wins I will not be sat here cursing wondering why I didn't back them. I also don't want more than 2 points on this race and I fancy two, so the staking sorted itself out. I will not tip 1/2 point each way, not in my nature! :) (I try and always get at least 1 point on the win side...an analysis of my tips in the first year indicated that approach won a lot more than 1/2 point EW betting..mainly as I land on enough monsters over time, but not enough placed horses)
Anyway... I Just Know may make all and win this well.. IF he stays. Which he may do. But I don't like backing horses 6/1 or under in marathon chases that have stamina to prove. I find that hard to do. It is an unknown. He may relish every yard of it and he is one of the best jumpers of a fence you will see. I'd like to see him over the National fences one day, and if he is to ever compete in a race around there, he should be winning this. I'd prefer Cook to be on and I don't know where he is...suspended or is he injured..no ride since 6th of Jan. So, there may be nothing in that booking. He is 3/1 and in a race like this that is too short for me. He will be a joy to watch on the front end though, and if you can't watch this race and appreciate his jumping, you're betting too much! :)
Sun Cloud..well he is long in the tooth now but does arrive here at the top of his game. That resurgence has been over hurdles though and I think he was sent back to timber due to running poorly enough over fences,maybe having lost his way. It is possible his mind just needed a change/freshening up. He has hacked up in this race before and his handicap mark is no issue. But again, at 4/1, I can live with him winning. That isn't a price i'd like to take on a horse aged 10+ with a few miles on the clock. He should run his race and the top two may fight this out.
Gonalston Cloud...
Everything indicates that this has been the target...a run over an inadequate trip,in a novice hurdle, with headgear missing... that run must have been to get him spot on for this, having come a decent second in this last year. It is also of interest that A Tinkler has been booked as he is 2/3,3p on the horse and his regular pilot, Adam Wedge, is riding for his boss. He has the best recent staying chase form on offer in this. Any number of his placed efforts over marathon trips last season would be good enough to be bang there in this line up. I am miffed that he is such a big price, which may indicate all is not well. But on the evidence we have he was a must bet. Carrying a big weight is no problem for him, he has course form, he stays, and the ground is fine - his better efforts have been on a sounder surface but he has run well on soft, and the price was too tempting. Provided he can track the pace/settle/not get detached, he will be thereabouts, staying on dourly come the line. While he is 11 he is only 4/11 over fences under rules, so not exactly over-raced. Sun Cloud has had more than double that number of chase runs, as a comparison.
Itstimeforapint...
With any luck it will be as 2.45 draws near... again, 9s seems an insult here..no idea why he is 3 points bigger than Golden Investment really.. like Gonalston Cloud he ran in this race last year also, coming a gallant third on lively enough ground. He should prefer the soft here. This horse stays 4m no problem and is a dour stayer. He is tough, responds for pressure, and will keep plodding on. Now, 2 or 3 others may have kicked away from him by then.. I can picture him pinging the last but not quite getting there, the line coming just in time for something! It could be agony. Given his run in this race last year, like Gonalston, i'd like to think this has been the target. He has run well in the Kelso National after a break and she can ready them if needs be. Again, the price lured me in. Russell is also in the best form she has been in for quite some time, 3/13,6p in the last 14 days. Solid.
I am more than comfortable with those two...
of the rest..well I have mentioned the top two in the market and if you like the price there isn't much for me to say to put you off. Milborough is 12 now and has a poor record first time up. I'd like to think he will need this run. Not for me. Alto Des Mottes is just out of form to my eyes and needs to find something from somewhere. Nope...
And then we get on to three 'could be anything' types over a marathon trip. I will not fall off my seat if either of them win but I do not like backing horses this inexperienced in races like this. Billy Bronco and Point The Way just don't have enough chase experience/form for me to be tempted at the prices. They have 'sexy' profiles but that isn't the sort I want in these gruelling races. I want battle-hardened, generally speaking. I'd also want some winning chase form over 3miles, and neither has that as yet. So, we shall see. I can live with either of those winning.
Golden Investment has a bit more experience and is unexposed at this trip. I don't think he will stay, esp in this ground, but I can't be overly dogmatic about that. He has nothing on his back but does have a class question also, looking a C4 animal. I wasn't convinced. Were he 8/1, 10/1+ I may have stared at him for longer. I'll sleep just fine if he bolts up. He is a 'S4' qualifier in my Members post..that is my best 'advised strategy' and is arguably the bread and butter on that front. They have done well in recent months. He may add to it. I wasn't convinced but I could be wrong. 6s didn't feel overly generous.
PACE.. well I Just Know could get an easy lead here. Dangerous. When Gonalston won at Market Rasen they raced him much closer to the pace- I hope they do that here, sitting in 3rd/4th. Itstimeforapint can be up there also... hopefully they are both in the right place when I Just Know's petrol runs out.
GL if you play.
Josh
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