Hello Friend
A trip to Ludlow today and as there isn't much else going on i thought i'd email you today's post...
(I have used the term 'hack up' below...which equates to a 1.5 point bet this time and not the mortgage! I like to be bullish as it's the right mindset to have. You can't lack for confidence if you want to win in this game. It's a turn of phrase, and not an indication that you should be betting the savings on her... she may well fall at the first! Her price looked big against her chance, to my subjective eyes)
There are also some views on a few areas i'll be working on this year, to improve my tipping further...
TIPS
(2016: +75 points ; 2017 18/185, +79.5; 2018 1/5,2p, +12)
3.00 Ludlow
TB Broke Her - 1.5 points win - 7/2 (Lad/Coral) 10/3 (gen)
Goohar - 1/2 point win - 8/1 (gen)
Urgh, Rolling Dylan was painful viewing yesterday. He was the right tip, the right price, and should have won. Sadly he idled/pulled himself up in the dying strides, losing by a nose. Awful scenes. Still, you can't mope around in this game. More than happy with how I read that race and these things tend to even themselves out as the season progresses. I will win a race when a horse in front looks set to win but clatters a fence, and I will win the odd race by a nose. What a game.
I've 'tipped' a shorty for me in the Members' post today and I have done so again here. This day will go one of two ways no doubt! This record is long broken but as we all know i'm a crap judge at this end of the market and I really need to up my game if I can. In an attempt to drive up my win SR with the free tips I am going to try and make a better judgement of those near the top of the market. Usually i'd just be bullish and pig headed - 'i want to take on any shorty in a 3m+ chase, let me at them!' - that isn't a bad approach to have and I have done well enough. However, clearly 33% or so of the time I am taking on decent favs who go on to win. And my 'win only' approach on a bigger priced outsider can leave me floundering. In this scenario I have three options -
1: i leave the race completely (fav looks too good, I can't make a case for anything else, just leave it... i find that so hard to do with any C4+, 3m+ handicap chase, I just can't!)
2. I back the 'shorty' (under 6/1!) provided i still think they are 'value' (overpriced against their chance,to my eyes), and maybe another- but make sure I am on.
3. I back my outsider Each-Way... fearing a shorter priced horse or two, I should try and protect myself and endeavour to get some return on my bet.
I will work on those three points as the year progresses. I am happy with my profits and ROI, but a 10% win SR is a bit choppy at times, and i'd like to get that in the 15-20% region if I can. I won't be abandoning my main principles, but there are always things to work on this game.
With that said...
TB Broke Her - barring a fall or bad luck I think she hacks up here. (i like to be confident with any bet, it's the right mindset to have...but she isn't a machine, and my 'she will hack up' mindset only equals 1.5 points- not the mortgage!) Having looked through all the runners I concluded she has the best chance by far and I was surprised to see her this 'big'. She could easily be a 2/1 shot here. If she was guaranteed to complete and run her race, i'd give her a 50% chance of winning this, which means she should be Even money. That's subjective. But it makes 7/2, 10/3 look appetising. There are no concerns with race conditions. She jumps, gallops, stays, will relish the ground, and she races prominently. She should track the pace and there will be no excuse, tactically. If she were a hold up stone last merchant, I may have just gone EW on Goohar, as you need more luck from the back, in the context of price. She is also unexposed and looks progressive. This is her third run for Matt Sheppard and he does well with LTO winners also. She dotted up the last day and I think she will do so again here. She is a mare in form, and they are to be feared! Looking at my three ratings sets (HorseraceBase/Geegeez Speed- Dr Peter May/Inform Speed) which I use as a guide... well she is miles clear top rated in HRB, clear top in Inform with some other good pointers in their racecard, and second rated in Geegeez. Visually and on 'the numbers' she looks very good, against this bunch. She looks to have plenty in hand still. My bullishness also stems from an assessment of the oppo,which i'll get onto in a moment.
Goohar... worth a smaller dabble at 8/1 given the race is named after his trainer and this must have been the target. Of course that wasn't enough to have a bet although it could well be for many. Plenty of logic there! This horse is unexposed over this distance and as he has got older it could be what he wants. This is one of the easier 3 miles also. It's no Exeter for stiffness. This is his 3rd run of the season and with any luck he is spot on here. Henry Daly is in superb form. He also can track the pace/race mid div, and if TB fluffs her lines will hopefully pick up the pieces. Albeit if either wins it will be the same profit on the race. His run at Cheltenham over this trip indicated he stays it now and he looked the most interesting of the others.
Of the rest...
Well in general I don't really like wading into 3m+ handicap chasers that look woefully out of form/out of sorts...and quite frankly most of the others don't look in great nick at the moment. I was struggling to work out why any of them would suddenly bounce back to life. If the fav doesn't run her race then it does suddenly become very open, and something has to win it. As well as being out of form, a few in here don't look to like soft or stay this trip in it. Bendomingo and Brandon rock are just too inexperienced for me over fences, esp the former, and the latter was poor LTO.
Of the bigger ones that look most interesting I suppose Nansaroy should be given a mention... a decent chance, esp on a run here last season where he came second. But 11/2, 6/1 didn't seem overly generous in the context of his last run- it was over 19f, (has won over 20) and his second start of the season, but even so, it was just a bit too poor. And he is now 0/8 over fences. In that price range I don't really like horses that were going backwards when last seen. I won't fall off my seat if he wins but I don't like the price against how I perceive his chance. Gorsky Island is worth a mention as the trainer has farmed handicap chases here in recent seasons and the horse is a CD winner. He hasn't won since 2014 and has been very lightly raced. He looks regressive to my eyes. He is 10, ran an awful race LTO (has won fresh before) beaten a long long way from home, and I think he may prefer a sounder surface. Given his profile i wanted at least 10s, if not 12s, before considering him. I may have that wrong, but I think i'll live with it at 8s, if he wins. I was struggling to see why he would bounce back enough to take this. It would be quite the turnaround. While George is now in better form, he wasn't wildly out of form when this one last ran, so that's not an excuse (unlike with Rolling Dylan yesterday).
This is about TB Broke Her I think. If she runs her race and builds on LTO I think she should win this. She has more improvement to come and I doubted any other horse really running up to their marks in this. I thought she looked over-priced and I didn't really think that about many others, bar the Daly horse who could be a tad shorter. If she fails then it does become open. Hopefully Goohar picks up the pieces, but Nansaroy or somehow Gorsky, may not be far away! And if I haven't mentioned the winner then so be it.
*
Good luck if you play,
Josh
|
