Hello Friend
I am on a bit of a 'test mission' with big field flat handicaps this season, using trends/stats etc as a starting point. I say 'test' because I have no historical record of success in this sphere.
Today it's the turn of the Hunt Cup from Thirsk. The idea is that over the season I may improve/develop with these types of races. Time will tell whether that is the case or not!
TEST TIPS (Flat Handicaps)
Running Total 2017: 0/2,0p, -4 points
3.40 Thirsk: Hunt Cup
Heir To A Throne - 1 point EW- 9/1 (PP/BV) 8/1 (general) (10/1 general in morning>)
Bryouni - 1 point EW- 16/1 (general)
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Stats/Trends HERE>>>
Shortlist:
Not the strongest of profiles but decent pointers are horses aged 4-6, OR 86-91, 1-2 runs this season: That would leave just 4...
Calvados Spirit (NR) / Bryouni / Heir To A Throne / Rousayan
Other pointers are 0-6 career wins/1-5 handicap wins / ran in race worth X£ as per notes above/Not ran on AW LTO.
Heir To A Throne is the only one who ticks all of those boxes. He is also trained by K Ryan who has the best recent record in this race, as is Bryouni also. He comes here in form and could come on for that last run. He is lightly raced and runs up with the pace. He looks interesting. Ryan is in ok form also.
Bryouni .. well he is on my main shortlist and given the other big priced one is a NR it makes any decision a tad easier. He is 16s and there isn't really a reason to not back him here- his last run may have been a tad disappointing but if it was a prep for this, then maybe that is an excuse. He ran ok to a point. He had a decent enough 3yo campaign and this is only the 14th run of his life. 8f could bring out more and he has course form. He looks interesting enough EW. This is a test section and I should trust my stats approach- ignoring it, picking another, only to see one bolt up at a price would be a bit of a downer.
You can read today's post in the usual place HERE>>>
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Good luck with any bets today, Josh
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