Hello Friend
Plenty to flick through today including:
1. 4 'Bets of The Day' from today's Members' Post 2. Free Preview/Tips for Cheltenham's Hunter Chase Card 3. Free stats/trends for Thirsk's Hunt Cup tomorrow.
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Bet of The Day...
Well hopefully this will be a 'bonus'... below are my 'bets of the day' from today's Members Club Post. This is where I use my stats picks as a starting point, throw in some of my own analysis/subjective judgement, look at the market, and home in on what I like best. Some days there are no bets, some days there are a few. If I can repeat the jumps stats from every 40 bets, that would be fun...
(a reminder that this is a test, and it may transpire I am a crap 'tipster'- but there really is no excuse not to do well with this approach over time. None whatsoever. I generally look in the 6/1+ range, which will mean a bumpy ride every now and then. I think this is a decent addition to the 'systematic' approaches you can take with the stats selections)
Members Club Bet Of The Day... (test)
(Flat... 0/1,1p, -1)
(Jumps...7/40, +30 points)
Flat
4.20 Chepstow- Urban Space- 1 point win - 8/1 (gen)
4.30 Muss - Vallarta - 1 point win - 4/1 (gen)
5.00- Muss - Adventureman - 1 point sin - 8/1 (bet365) 15/2 (gen)
Urban Space- well it's a bit mad for me to probably be most confident about an 11 year old but he was in the form of his life last year, and on his second run of the season in 2016 lost narrowly. He should come on from his last run. In flat handicaps he is 4/10,9p at Chepstow (a run for money assured??) 1/2,1p over CD and 5/13,10 places in class 6. He is also 3lb below his last winning mark albeit that doesn't take account of claims. He has won off 62 though and in any case, an ability to stay in a race like this is far more important than a pound here or there. He stays. He is fit. He should run his race. I am not sure I can say that about many others in here. The only slight niggle is the yard form but at 8s, in the context of this race, I will dive in. If he runs a shocker then clearly that may be the reason. He looks solid.
The Vaughan horse... well he may run well but the trainer is 0/20,2p with flat horses returning 60+ days off- small numbers, but big in the context of his price. Akavit- well he went down narrowly for the stats LTO, agonisingly so having been 8s in the morning. He received a perfect ride there for me- dictated from the front, slowed down, kicked- really no excuse for me and I can't touch him today. He may win. So be it.
So, the old boy will do here. I should get a run for my money and most others in here have a question or two to answer. He will keep staying on up this straight and hopefully that will be enough.
Vallarta - maybe I will be punished for going under my general 6/1, 7/1 price points for 'bet of the day' but if one of the Carr runners wins, I didn't want to be on the wrong one! Ruth's horses generally run themselves into form and it is hard to detect patterns. This one is certainly doing just that and will apreciate this step back up in trip. He races prominently and should be able to get out and track the pace, or may even try and take it up himself. You generally get a run for your money with him and provided he takes to the course, he should give his all again. 4s just about seemed ok.
Adventureman- I couldn't quite leave him at 8s here- He doesn't run well too often- well, he hasn't had loads of racing but is 1/15 on the flat. That win came here, and he is 1/4,2p at the track. That could count for plenty. He is 1/2,1p in C6 handicaps and takes a drop in class from recent runs. His only win was in May. This could be his time of year. He is only 5. And there was one last piece in the puzzle- I think he will try and make all, and as long as Joe Fanning rides his mount in a way he is usually ridden, he could do so again (hopefully he doesn't want to make all today, as is his want around tracks like this) But, I think he could dictate. It is his first try over this trip, 1f or so further than he normally goes but he shapes as if he is worth a try over it and IF he can get an easy lead, that will help. At 8s there is enough there to roll the dice. Cosmic Ray finished ahead of him two starts ago, but this is a very different track and you never know. 8s seems a tad generous to me.
Jumps
4.55 Font- Soulsaver - 1 point win - 5/1 PP 9/2 (gen)
You are always learning in this game and I am kicking myself for not going with Sendiym yesterday - I had my 'young is best' blinkers on and when combined with fact there was another qual in the race, decided to dodge it. Any users of GG Gold Instant Expert tab will have noted his decent chance and when I dipped into HRB after he won (cardinal sin,lazy as I didn't do that before) and used the profile tool, I was annoyed. He was 3/5 at Sedgfield in handicap hurdles, and ticked numerous other boxes- and he won the same sodding race last year. 3rd run back after a break, chasing LTO, Hughes up, handicap mark fine, etc etc- 7/1. Missed. You need missed winners like that every now and again to jolt you out of analysis slumber and everything today has had the Geegeez + HRB treatment. Cue 0/4!
Anyway, back to this horse...
He is unexposed and having his second run in a handicap. Add to the tracker as he is surely bolting up in a handicap one day. I hope that is today. Honeyball is 7/21,11p, +27 with horses moving in distance by 20% or more from last run. Decent. He knows when to try a new trip to improve a horse. He is also 3/13,9p with horses having their second start in a handicap. (those Geegeez in card trainer snippets are useful) Now, I don't know what to make of his last run- it wasn't say a staying on performance from the back where you would think a step up is needed. He hit the front and then seemed to tire a bit I think- but he was beaten by an inform horse at the time, and old boy who has won since I think.
What has caught my eye is the tongue tie... he wore it the last day. He doesn't today. He has had 53 days of... hmm... has he had a wind op?? Possibly. Maybe his wind was a reason for his effort near the end LTO. I don't know. In any case, this is a weak race, and the step up could bring about improvement. He may not stay of course. But Honeyball has been a decent judge of stamina in his charges. 9/2 or so is just about ok. I suspect he will finish unplaced or win like a 6/4 shot.
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Finally... Blessed To Empress..
Many of you helped decide the name of this 2 Year Old Filly, which I now own 2.5% of. You'll be pleased to hear she won on her first ever start at Chelmsford the other night. A good start and an exciting future.
I may well be back in touch tomorrow. There will be a shortlist for the Hunt Cup and some 'test tips', to use as you please.
Enjoy the beginning of your weekend, Josh
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