Hello Friend
The Wokingham is the big handicap of the day. I have yet to find my 'sprinting feet' in these races so what follows is a bit experimental but hopefully an interesting read nonetheless.
Hopefully you may have checked out the blog on Thursday where I posted up my Royal Ascot trainer micro qualifiers from the Members' post. Winners at 20/1 and 9/1 ensured a +24 point day on that front. Hopefully you had a piece of that.
Wokingham Handicap
18/21 Top 4 LTO
20/21 Age 4-6
OR 107+: 0/35,7p
21/21 0/62,7p had 0-4 wins at distance (5+ 0/62,7p)
21/21 0-4 runs this season
that leaves a certain list...
10 years: 0 distance wins: 0/35, 7p (would remove Steady Pace/Harry Hurricane)
Ran 1-20 days ago: 0/73,11p (removes Culturati)
I think that would leave: Donjuan Triumphant / Raucous / Shanghai Glory / Polybius / Muntadab / Amazour
My approach to flat stats/trends isn't doing much at the moment, and it didn't have a great record last year so maybe a re-think is needed. Anyway, those stats looked interesting above and that is the shortlist. No idea as yet if I will test 'tip' in the race, depends on time in the morning. It is quite a puzzle.
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Wokingham 'test Tips'
Muntadab - 1 point EW - 22/1 (gen) (1/4, 5 places)
Amazour - 1 point win - 16/1 gen
Polybius - 1/2 point EW- 40/1 / 33/1
(4 points total)
I will stick with the stats here as you know the moment I leave them and attempt to just look at the race 'cold' one of them will bolt up. Maybe.
Muntadab - well he hasn't done much wrong here, get's a top jockey on, and interestingly gets the visor. Hopefully he responds well to it and doesn't do too much. He is only one of three front runners I can see in this- there are so many hold up types- to be frank IF he is going the speed Crowley wants and isn't over-racing, I struggle to see him out of the top 5- based on the pace set up, his consistent big field form, and the fact he stays 7f. 22s seems big to my eye, cue tailed off last! Hopefully he isn't marooned up the middle of the track, which seems to be the slowest- but you never know today, it may be the quickest strip! Crowley could decide to go either side. That decision may prove decisive.
Amazour- well he is in decent enough form but will need some pace to aim at. He faded over 6f here a while back but also race well enough in the Brittania one year. He is drawn low so that side is covered. He ticks the stats and is a decent price. I thought he may be doing his best work late but he may be on the fastest strip of turf. Birchwood and Steady Pace may take the lower numbers into it. Of course they could always be more aggressive on him. Worth a dart.
Polybuis- a big price and he ran well in Dubai for new connections. I struggle to see why he should do better than he did in the 2015 version but he may have strengthened more and in any case is 40/1, on the shortlist, and you can make some sort of case that he may out-run these odds. Worth a dart.
I was happy to leave the rest on the shortlist. We know what will happen now.
These are 'test tips' really, still to find a decent approach to these sprint handicaps. Think we are on 0/8, or maybe 0/10 ish this season.(and I didn't do great in them last year. Work to do, albeit they are tough races and you don't need to find the winner too often to do well over time)
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Good luck with any bets today, do post a comment on today's blog if anything has caught your eye.
Josh
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