Hello Friend
In today's free post I have had a look at the Royal Hunt Cup, which you can read HERE>>> (repeated below)
Yesterday I put up a couple of fancies from Dr Nick Hardman which included a 5th placed finisher at 100/1. I know a few of you had an ew nibble with Paddy Power. A good end to the day.
ROYAL HUNT CUP
My top 6 stats:-
20/20 carried 9-5 or less after claims
20/20 0-3 wins at distance
19/20 had 0-2 (3: 1/58,11p
20/20 had 1-4 runs this season
10/10 yet to run above Group 3: (had run at Group 1+2 in career: 0/79,7p)
10/10 running at same distance or drop in distance from LTO: not moving up in trip (0/67,9p)
10/10 had won at least once in last 5 starts (0/92, 9p had not)
(as an aside those with 0 handicap wins are 0/61,5p)
Those leave: Banksea / Another Touch / Ballet Concerto / BoomShakerlacker / Fastnet Tempest / El Vip / G K Chesterton / Withernsea / Cote D Azur
4 year olds are the place to focus and older horses rarely win this, which removes Boom and Withernsea.
Claiming jockeys are 0/25,0p... that will do for Another Touch :) (Fahey also 0/11,0p in the race)
Ballet Concerto ran in a G3 LTO, 0/21,3p. It could be argued he doesn't look that well handicapped now either? And he looks a bit out of sorts although was badly hampered the last day. Dangerous taking on Stoute/Moore but you can't back them all.
Horses sent off 50/1+ are 0/135, 6 places in last 20 years. Cote D Azur looks up against it in general to my eye. (not impossible he snatches a place)
That then, would leave 4:
-Banksea - in form and chance there is more to come. Also a chance the handicapper may have got him now or in any case there are better treated rivals in here. Of interest that Spencer picks El Vip for me. He goes well fresh. Fast ground fine.
-Fastnet Tempest - another in form horse who seems to be going the right way. Conditions look ideal and like many in here will need luck in running. Has 3 distance wins to his name now which is a slight neg, suggests may be more 'exposed' at the trip than some. Those with 3 dist wins 1/58,11p. I wouldn't just let that stat put you off though.
-El Vip - Could well receive a Spencer special here. I like him as a jockey. You may not. But you should note that he is 5/24,13 places, +31 SP in 8f handicaps at the track. He rides these big fields well. His MO is to settle the horse, get them into a rhythm, and ensure they finish off their race. Often that means he can leave it too late or run into traffic. It can be frustrating but I know what I am getting and I have to take the medicine sometimes. But most jocks would like his hanicap stats over CD here. He is 1/17,3p in the race over the last 20 years. This one needs settling and they usually go a sound enough pace in these races. He can track GK below and Cote DA who should be up there. He won with any amount in hand LTO. I have no doubt he is ahead of the handicapper still. 8s is as short as you would want to go I think.
-GK Chesterton -another unexposed in form horse. He races up with the pace and has been able to dictate the last twice which may well have contributed to his victories. But there may not be loads of pace on here and as long as Buick doesn't get into a pace battle he could save a bit. And he may not have to lead. He has only been doing just enough and there could be more to come. Given the form of connections in general and how they have started this meeting I will find it hard to leave him at 14s+.
The pace does seem to be middle to high so low drawn horses may struggle here. But then I have been made to look silly with such views before here on the straight course.
Do with that information as you please. I won't be 'tipping' as such in this but I may well have a nibble on all 4 of those. I will definitely be having a 5va on El Vip and GK. This meeting is a bit of fun for me and if I can make some beer money then even better. It's no Cheltenham :) (on the staking front, and in general. I'm a jumps man at heart)
Good Luck with any bets today, Josh
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