Hello Friend
I hope you're having a good week and enjoyed/survived Cheltenham. Some mesmerising performances to savour. Hopefully you found a few winners.
It was solid if unspectacular in these parts, a losing week at the Festival for my tips, -9.55 points. Thankfully The Midland's National came to the rescue with a 15.5/1 winner, making it another profitable 'Festival Week', to the tune of a stonking +4.6 points or so! Still, better than nothing, plenty of placed horses but I could have done with another decent priced winner. Next year.
The Festival Micros I sent out for free did ok, focussing on 'the big four'. Backing all qualifiers... 11/86, 28p = +37.37 BFSP . For all arguably all three of the big priced winners were lucky for one reason or another, but still, maybe they helped you land on a winner or two also.
But that's over for another year and there's still much to look forward to jumps wise before the main season is out. I'll be up in Liverpool for The Grand National meeting, possibly by favourite week of the year. Hopefully the sun shines.
However, arguably The Flat takes centre stage this weekend and so I've diverted from all things jumps.
Below you can find some stats & trends that may help you land on a few winners. First up there are a few trainer pointers, and one jockey to keep an eye on.
There then follows my trends pointers for the two big handicaps.
Let's crack on...
Doncaster Lincoln Meeting
A handful of trainer pointers and one jockey of note for this weekend’s flat season curtain raiser..
Trainers of note…
Richard Fahey
All runners
8/1 or shorter SP
2017>
23 bets / 6 wins / 10p / 26% sr / +22 SP / +29 BFSP
With six winners, Fahey is the joint- winning most trainer at this meeting in the last five seasons.
The market has been some guide, with those sent off 9/1 or bigger now 0/39, 5p. Odds are only ever a guide of course and he’ll have a biggie go in at some point but those sent off 8/1 or shorter are clearly the place to focus on.
Maybe of some mild interest is that all of Fahey’s drawn 1-5 are 0/22,2p.
Those sent off 8/1 or shorter, drawn 6 or higher, 6/14, 9p, +38 BFSP.
There could be nothing in that, or it’s the race types Fahey targets, the distance, field sizes etc, and that being drawn low hasn’t worked out. We are dealing with small sample sizes though.
Fahey was 0/6,0p last year within this ‘micro’ angle. Last season may well have been a time of transition for the yard. I remember reading that Fahey had changed his buying habits, going for the slow maturing middle distance type, as opposed to the early speedy types. He’d concluded that with horses over 10f+ there are more races to be won, with better prize money. Whether that change in strategy bears fruit this season or next, time will tell. No doubt he’ll start firing in a load of 2YOs over 5-6f again soon! Something to keep an eye on anyway.
Richard Hannon
27 bets / 6 wins / 10p / 22% sr / +27 SP / +42 BFSP
Richard Hannon (jnr) has also had six winners in the period inc 2/11, +13 last year when flagged.
The market has been some sort of guide, all winners sent off 14/1 or shorter SP. A 16/1 place though, but those sent off 16/1 or bigger are 0/11,1p in the period.
Those with 6< career runs: 3/8, 4p, +31 BFSP
5 of the 6 winners have been when Richard has targeted just one runner at the race. When he has 2, 1/10, 3p, +2, vs 5/17,5p +40 when just 1 runner.
Others of note…
All runners, last five years…
Roger Varian: 3/8, 5p, -0.29 BFSP
Charlie Appleby: 3/13, 6p, -5
Saeed Bin Surror: 3/4, 4p, +4
George Scott: 2/7, 4p +22
James Tate: 2/3,2p, +9
Ian Williams: 2/4,2p, +12
Phil Kirby: 2/10,3p, +28
*
A jockey of note…
Silvestre De Sousa
All rides: 21 bets / 5 wins / 8p / 24% sr / +6 SP / +11 BFSP
He’s the winning most jockey in the period, although three of those for King Power, who he’s no longer retained for. But he is now a freelance and his rides may be wroth a second glance. He will be wanting winners and at some point may have his eyes on the Championship again in the years to come, if he can find the support.
His six winners have been over 7f (3/5) and 10f (2/6)
He’s 4/8, 5p, +19 in Class 4& 5.
*
Saturday's Big Race Trends
2.25 – Spring Mile Handicap
13/264, 52p
13/13 had 0-1 runs this calendar year (2+ : 0/51,8p)
13/13 had 0-4 wins in handicaps (5+ : 0/48, 3p)
13/13 ridden by non-claiming jockeys (claimers: 0/50, 6p)
12/13 had 0-6 places (inc wins) in handicaps (7+ : 1/109, 14p)
12/13 aged 4 or 5 (6+ : 1/89, 10p) (10/13 aged 4)
12/13 ridden by today’s jockey 0-3 (4+ : 1/74, 14p)
12/13 had 0-6 runs in today’s class (C2) (7+ ; 1/88, 10p)
12/13 had 0-1 places (inc wins) in todays class (C2) (2+: 1/88, 15p)
12/13 top 3 at least once last three starts (had not: 1/73, 9p)
11/13 had 1-5 runs over the distance (0: 0/11,2p, 6+: 2/131, 23p)
11/13 had yet to win in Class 2 (had: 2/84, 11p)
11/13 had never won over further than 1m (had: 2/97, 13p)
10/13 had 1-3 career wins (0: 0/3,1p; 4+ : 3/124, 17p)
10/13 official rating was the same or lower than last race (higher: 3/84, 15p)
Trainers
R Fahey: 2/23, 7p
B Meehan: 2/5,3p
X1: S kirk, E Bethell, A King, P Chapple-Hyam, R Varian, I Mohammed, R Teal, Sir M S, M Dods
3.35 – The Lincoln Handicap
13/267, 52p
13/13 aged 4-6 (7+ : 0/59, 11p)
13/13 had no run in prev 90 days (1+ : 0/88, 11p)
13/13 ran in a handicap LTO (non-handicap: 0/66, 13p)
13/13 ran in race for 3YO or 3YO+ LTO (4YO+ : 0/93, 11p; 5YO+ : 0/1,1p)
12/13 were at least 6lb lower than highest rated (within 5lb: 1/75, 15p)
12/13 ran in Class 2 or 3 LTO (C4/5: 0/3,0p; C1: 0/50, 11p)
1213 had 0-3 wins in handicaps (4+ : 1/94, 16p)
11/13 had won at least once last four runs (had not: 2/117, 21p)
11/13 ran on flat turf LTO (AW: 2/102, 16p)
10/13 drawn stall 9 or higher
10/13 had 0-4 runs over the distance (5+ : 3/160, 29p)
9/13 Top 3 LTO (9/92, 20p)
Other
Horse carried 906+ : 0/48, 10p
Horse ran at Wolverhampton LTO: 0/51, 7p ; Lingfield LTO: 0/28,4p
Trainers
C Appleby: 2/3,2p
W Haggas: 2/5,3p
R Fahey: 2/35, 8p
J Gosden: 2/8,2p
X1: JJ Quinn, M Tompkins, M Dods, J Ryan, D OMeara
*
That's all for today's email, as always, thanks for reading,
All the best,
Josh
