Hello Friend
Goodwood has been poor so far but i'm +20.5 points at Galway after an 11/1 winner and 11/1 second yesterday in the members' post, both 1 point EW. Clearly I should have pulled those through to the free post! I'll try and find a winner or two on here today and build on the +161.5 points in 2018 from 'festival races' (big C2+ handicaps mainly) +61 points more from the free posts (mainly 3m+ handicap chases) (i think at an ROI greater than 100%) It's been a decent year so far on the tipping front and hopefully I can build on it today, and drag myself into profit for the week at Goodwood. (-8 currently, urgh) Let's get to it... You can read today's post HERE>>> (repeated below)
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Festival Tips
3pm Goodwood
Tis Marvellous - 1 point win - 10/1 (WH/BetfS) 9/1 (gen)
Silent Echo - 1 point win - 11/1 (gen)
Gunmetal - 1 point win - 16/1 (gen)
I've kept this fairly simple here and stuck with my stats/trends, given I can make a case for them all at the prices... the main three stats I used... 10/10 had 0-1 run at the track (0/81,7p had 2+), 10/10 ran over 6f or further LTO (0/58,6p stepping up from 5f),10/10 were running at the same class or dropping one class (from listed to C2) (0/50,4p were not). Those three stats leave 5...
Foxtrot Lady / Tis Marvellous / Silent Echo / Muscika / Gunmetal
10/10 had won at class 2 or above, albeit those that hadn't are 0/39,6p, and the sample sizes/placed runners suggest that stat should be treated with some caution. This is a weaker renewal than in recent years and maybe it will go this year. Foxtrot and Gunmetal both hit this stat though....Tis Marvellous doesn't on his UK runs, but has won a French group race (which are not picked up in my HorseRaceBase stats, they don't cover form abroad). Running in a non major race LTO is a positive (0/44,6p ran in listed or higher), and running in a handicap LTO looks essential (0/60,8p did not). Having 4-7 runs in the last 365 days is a positive...9/10 had done that, 1/161,20p (from a total of 266 runners in race last decade,40p) had not. Gunmetal is the only one to tick that box.
So, we are left with five. I'd be rather surprised if Muscika won this as he looks out of sorts again, having won an Ayr C4 in a first time visor, the effect of which appears to have worn off. BUT, he is 50s and 'name your price' on BFSP no doubt, and given his place on the stats shortlist I will have some 'just in case' beer money on him, to soften the blow of not putting my tipping stake on, if he somehow does cause a shock!
That leaves 4...
And well,I've gone for the three at the biggest price. Tipping 11/2 shots in a race like this feels a bit dirty and a couple of times this week i've ventured to that end of the market without much luck...no doubt she'll bolt up now and clearly if you like the price etc I won't put you off, but she is short to my eyes. She does have to prove she has the speed for this test I think. She was staying on at York two starts back and again it was stamina that won her the day at Newmarket, relishing the rising ground on the climb to the line as they came out of the dip. It isn't impossible she gets tapped for toe mid race, runs on, but just doesn't quite get there in time. That's the hope for those of us taking her on. I could have tipped her but it just feels wrong at that price. So...
Tis Marvellous... has decent form and ran in the Wokingham LTO which is proving to be a hot renewal I think..it's looking like the strongest recent formline going into this race I think, and i'd rate it a fair bit higher than the race Foxtrot won LTO. The 6th, 8th, 9th, 15th, 16th, 23rd, 26th have all come out and won since. This one ran a cracker in 4th, beaten a length, possibly left with too much to do. It could be this track won't suit but hopefully Kirby can get him more prominent and if he repeats that last run he won't be far away here.
Silent Echo...likewise with this one, who came 5th in the Wokingham. He's just been in form all season and given his wins at Windsor, maybe this flatter track will suit more than Ascot although again he was doing all his best work late the last day. Fanning has been booked and with any luck he gets him a bit further forward before asking for maximum effort. Again if he repeats/builds on that run LTO, he'll be bang there.
Gunmetal... he is the only one to tick all of my stats pointers (inc the 4-7 runs in last year stat) is 16/1 and arrives in form. It didn't need much more thinking than that given my approach to these handicaps. The 6.5f at the Curragh and that still climb just stretched him the last day I think and he also ran up the middle of the track for a time, without cover. If Curtis can get a lead here and he repeats his recent form, he's another who should be in the mix and his price seems a bit big to my eyes. Barron won this race a couple of times in the 90s and maybe he can add another.
I won't bother mentioning much else. If none of those 5 win then I was never destined to find the winner given my stats shortlist... my stats/trends above are solid and i'll put my trust in them again. Clearly I may not have mentioned the winner but if my stats profile holds, I have, and hopefully i've picked the right 3.
Best of luck, Josh |
