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Well it hasn't been the best of weeks with my Festival Tipping as yet, with a few dodgy decisions and winners missed. But, there are still two days to go. I've only managed to find one winner from fourteen stabs, and currently sit on -1 point across Goodwood (-6) and Galway (+5). Today i've focussed on the 3pm from Goodwood... from the members' post...
Members't tips: Daily Tips (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75) (2018: 18/186,65p, +5.4) (1 point win bets) Festival Tips (2018: +145)
Festival Tips
3.00 Goodwood
Escobar - 2 points win - 13/2 (Coral/Betf) 6/1 (gen)
Isomer - 1 point win -33/1 (Lad/WH) 28/1 (gen)
('the machine' may be worth a look for Isomer. 55s+ not impossible)
*as of 21.50 yesterday...
I have used some stats/trends for this... 10/10 were aged 6 or younger, 10/10 top 3 at least once last 3 runs, 10/10 2-5 career wins. That leaves 9... Seniority, Escobar, Fire Brigade, Repercussion, Cape Byron, Oiginal Choice, Zwayyan, Isomer, Hayadh.
Those drawn in box 16 or higher are 0/116,11p in the last 20 years and if that holds true this year, Cape B, Original Choice and Zwayyan are done for from that list. I'm sure Fire Brigade needs a hydrant to burst on track and so does Repercussion. I think they need more cut and in any case don't look in the best of form, but maybe Bell's will run well. Those that ran at Ascot LTO are 0/50,13p in the last decade. It doesn't appear to be the perfect prep track for this race. Seniority has that to overcome and is short for one that is usually held up. His draw is good on paper but may not be if he has a wall of horses in front of him. Maybe they will go forward and he will do me, but i'll take him on.
That leaves three... I will mention Hayadh (name your price...). I may have had change on at 100.00 'just in case' but I don't think he's in any sort of form or will be good enough. IF he repeated that Wetherby run though, he'd outrun these odds. Fanning is on which I found interesting and in a race without much pace on paper, he may race prominent. If he ran up to his best he may place, i'd be a bit sick if he stayed there and won! Surely he won't, but i've seen a biggie on a stats shortlist go in once at Goodwood earlier in the week...
Escobar... 2 points does represent a certain level of confidence as he ticks so many boxes here. He shows up well on the stats and is well drawn. I'd like to think Tudhope may race him more prominently here and I wouldn't fall off my seat if this had been the plan given the size of pot. At Sandown the last day he was given a rather impossible task from near the back. He was given a very patient ride and the Hannon horse got first run. That horse was thoroughly unexposed and is clearly smart. Escobar showed a good turn of foot mid race to my eye having watching it back and ran like a horse with a bit in hand still. He dismissed Via Serendipity in 3rd who I since tipped at Ascot where he ran a credible fourth in a decent handicap. This former listed winner as a juvenile also showed his class at Haydock three runs ago. He cut through the field with ease and won fairly snugly come the line, beating a lot of in form horses in the process. He has never run well at Ascot so am happy to ignore that run. With any luck they've been holding him up recently to get him to settle into his races. I hope they race him just behind the pace here, pounce a couple from home and win going away. Knowing my luck they will hold him up again and he will find all sorts of trouble, but Danny T isn't usually that stupid in this scenario. His turn of foot may come in handy. The yard is in red hot form and there's just something about his recent runs which makes me think today is the day he may show some real class. He has track experience and he's sure to relish the drying ground, which can't be said for plenty in here. They also put the TT on first time. Maybe they don't want to leave anything to chance! Oh, and he's top rated on Geegeez with a big speed figure and second in on HRB. The numbers back up the visuals. 8 of the last 21 (8/35 runners or so) were sent off at 6/1 or shorter.
Isomer...a bit of a flyer but he ticks plenty of boxes and I found it interesting that Norton has been booked. Given the lack of pace on paper his draw could be ok (a horse has won from this wide in the last decade) and I expect Norton to get him racing prominently. He seems to run very well or not so well but it could be that rattling fast ground has done for him on two of his recent runs. It is drying out here but with the addition of some fresh ground also, it shouldn't be ratting quick just yet. If he repeated his Newmarket run from earlier in the season or even that Chelmsford win, he'd out-run these odds I think. He could take it up deep into this race and be the one to pass. He appeared to be too free the last day and as I said may have hated the going. He could just be in and out but he hits the main stats and is an interesting outsider. I was happy to have a stab. If he ran to his best here, he'd be in the shake up.
Clearly I may not have mentioned the winner but hopefully they can both run well. Poet's Society is interesting given he is the only out and out front runner in the race, drawn 7, Dettori booked. I'm not sure why she should bounce back to form here though. He did have to use up too much energy earlier in the week and this easier 8f may just be fine. He may be another interesting outside for the in form Johnston yard.
*
Best of luck,
Josh
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