The Flat 2020

(113 tips/17 wins/37 places (inc wins) /+76.6 points, advised/ +73.06 Betfair SP)

1.45 York 

#1 - Lahore - 1 point win - 14/1 (gen) (15.5 betfair exchange)

#2 - Soldiers Minute - 1 point win - 50.00 (betfX)

#3 - Tarboosh - 1 point win - 50.00 (betfX)

#4 - Leodis Dream - 1/2 point win - 150.00 (betfX) (if not getting that, BFSP the alternative, I can't see him collapsing) 

3.45 York

#5 - Rajinksy - 1 point win - 12/1 (gen)

#6 - Just Hubert - 1 point win - 15.5 (betfX)

prices as if 8am when posted...write ups

1.45

The first thing to say is that obviously Jawwaal or Arecibo may take this but their prices are ridiculous esp for the former who won LTO for us at 12s. He did breeze through that as if he had chunks in hand but the nearside was favoured. They are both hold up types that will need luck, which is fine for bigger prices, but surely not at those odds. They make Staxtons 6s at Ripon look a gift given his rail draw/pace - alas! Anyway... I could have gone EW as I do fear the fav, but that would mean having too many points on the race and I really don't like doing 1/2 points that often if at all, a rare dart with Leodis who i'll get onto. IF the top 2 don't win and I haven't landed on the winner, well i'll have gone from a predicted A* to an F in a matter of strides... or seconds... but then I did attend a mediocre comprehensive...

Lahore

A winner for us two starts back here and he won that day with authority come the line. Scott has since lost his 3lb claim so he is in effect 6lb higher but he has everything in his favour again and, like Just Hubert who follows later, I just couldn't cope with him going in again at this price. He's best in a big field, buried away, settling off ferocious fractions and running through horses. Like Tarboosh he was lit up/too keen in that small field at Hamilton but did stay on in a manner to suggest he hasn't gone out of form as quickly as he came into it. His win here two starts back produced a career best RPR 110, TS 93. IF he runs his race, he will be bang there, with luck in running. He shouldn't be 3x+ the price of the fav in this. Both very similar types.

Soldiers Minute

Like Lahore he hits my 'trends pointers' and he's also Top 6-8 in HRB and it can pay to try and make a case for those lodged there in these races, which I failed to do at Goodwood. I don't understand his price at all. His two runs this season have been decent - he was last off the bridle in The Wokingham, he tanked through that before flattening (got squeezed also but suspect he needed it). He ran a cracker here LTO off 9-12, running on what appeared to be the wrong part of the track for the first half, Musicka setting sail up this rail, the stalls having been miles away. He ran well, hit some traffic, stayed on. He's in form. Or was, when last seen. He's a course winner over the 6f here and is versatile ground wise. (well, GS is fine) Any rain isn't meant to arrive until after this race though. The jockey knows him well enough, inc riding him in one of his York runs. He has the form to win this and from this mark. His demolition job in a handicap here last May still lives in the memory. A repeat of that and he's no 50s shot. The question is the trip... this is 5.5f and in a race with so so much pace on paper. I hope Shane isn't overly aggressive and just tracks the pace around him. But he will be mid/low and prominent. Lahore will be mid/low and held up. In many of those 6f efforts he's been in front at the 5 pole and is pacey. The yard aren't having a great season as yet but the horse has run two good races, and he's a 50s shot, I won't use that to talk myself out of him. He could cause a surprise here...

Tarboosh 

As could this one... he's bordering on G3 class I think and I won't be surprised if he nabs a listed/G3 at some point this season. He is classy. He tanks through his races, finds for pressure and is a ridiculous price for a trainer who's won this previously. In October 18 he hacked up in a 22 runner Donny handicap off 104 (9-10). This mark/weight will not be the reason for defeat, and he's just as good as back then. He ran in this race last year when the pace was middle/low, his side behind from halfway. He cut through his group no problem and smashed them to pieces, sadly the others had gone and the pace generally held up that day. He also lost a shoe which wouldn't have helped. Two starts back he'd have won that Listed race here if getting a clear run, and would have beaten 105+ horses in the process. Trainer/jockey are 5/14,8p together in the last 30 days, 3/8,5p in the last 14. Lee was previously a, how should I phrase it, 'get their mark down' jockey for the yard I think - well he didn't ride many winners, and maybe not many fancied ones. But he does seem to be a go to man this season, no doubt helped by the '1 meeting per day only' rule for jockeys this season.

His chance is enhanced by the pace - if something leads/makes all here then i'll doff my cap but on paper this should be scorching, and should set up for those more patiently ridden... Watchable / Jabb/ Momentof ... the highest drawn, all like to make all/get on with it. They will toe the high numbers into it. To Tarboosh's left a few stalls away is Copper Knight - he should be up there. For those middle/low... Acclaim The Nation will blast off and is the quickest handicapper in this race from the front, over 5f. Majic J will go forward also and Leodis D may be up there, Soldier's not far off. Those low/mid will all merge up the middle I think, possibly two groups, the other stands side. I've got most bases covered /pace/draw/style wise. That leaves one more..

Leodis Dream

Obviously a proper poke, even more so than the two above, but I couldn't leave him at those eye-popping odds - i'll probably declare him to his BFSP price as that 150.00 didn't last overly long. 90.00 as I type but I think he should drift out some more. Always tricky. On the level of his form earlier in his career, this is a silly price. His new trainer does well with stable switchers 1st time up, (11/44, 18p, +30) and trainer/jockey are 9/34, 13p, +35 in the last year. Come on Hollie! He's clearly lost his way a bit but his 2019 form would give hope that new connections have a decent handicapper on their hands, if/when they relight his fire. He is only 4 and 6/13,7p in his career, another to hit my 'trends shortlist'. It may amount to very little today, but that's the game. I think he will be up there from the off and IF he's here to run his race/fit, will outrun these odds. One worth tracking whatever he does here.

So, that's that. I really didn't like anything else at the odds in this. If the front two in the market fluff their lines and I haven't landed on the right one, I will be a tad annoyed, which is silly given the race type but you've got to have high standards in this game. It looks fiendishly competitive but I didn't like the likes of Majic J (one of the few unexposed but hopefully the blinkers light him up too much, he can be keen and over-racing did for him LTO) or Aplomb (wants further/softer?).  I suppose either of Tim's would annoy me but i'm not sure this extra 1/2 furlong is ideal for Copper Knight and I don't think it will be soft enough for Hyperfocus. But I could be wrong on both fronts. They're handicapped to win again and both like it here. And typically, I probably haven't mentioned the winner! I didn't think Justanotherbottle would be good enough, but maybe that's what i'll need come 13.47.

*

3.45 

Rajinsky - i'd be mildly surprised were he out the top 5 here but instead of going EW i've thrown in another one which is my preferred method if I can make the case. And it's not like hes 25s+. I'll cope with him placing with no return, just.  I can't understand his price. He will race prominently, is in fine form, stays, gallops and won't mind if the rain has set in by this point, which is possible. That Ascot run was solid, the front two miles clear, staying on. LTO wasn't too bad either. That was the first time Richard had ridden him over 16f+ and I suspect he'll have learnt plenty from it - I suspect he was annoyed with himself after, having waited too long on the front end to get stuck in. All he does is respond for pressure and having got tapped for toe, was staying on again come the line. I think 92 underestimates him over this trip and he's no 14s shot. Hopefully he hits the front at some point and just grinds it out. Rain would help just because I think he'd handle it better than many in this, but the current going is no excuse. He hits my 'trends pointers' also although as with the race above they may have excluded the winner. He's solid. And a silly price.

Just Hubert - as is my old friend who i'm destined never to get right. But if he were to win here again, at 14s, on the back of the best recent piece of staying form in the race, you'd hear my screams of anguish, much like at Goodwood. The pain. By all accounts he's just taken a while to come to hand this season - Muir admits to not being hard enough on him at home, in a way running him into fitness/form on the track - smaller yards/those without many potential stars/90+ horses, can tend to do that, nervous of leaving their race at home. He's talked off as a possible Melbourne Cup horse and if they're right about that, he will be going close here. I thought he won fairly cosily come the line last time. He always does just enough and can idle when in front, but Tom knows him now. I also think he needs a bit of bullying and can take the mickey out of his jockey if allowed. This trip shouldn't be a problem and Tom has ample time to wind him up. He won't mind cut I don't think, although proper soft a question of sorts - although ran on well at Chester in it a while back. I saw no reason why he shouldn't repeat/build on his last run, and as such his price was also insulting.

Of the rest...

Here And Why is interesting to a point given he's won this race before, and easily. It seems a race that Ralph targets. This may have been the plan but LTO he returned after 600+ days off and has since had another 64. I can't think that was the plan, but maybe he's fragile and they only have so many darts to through through a season. Softening ground would be an unknown, but the rain may not arrive. I was on the fence at 12s but have gone for the ones where they're wellbeing is more assured - but he could run a big race at 12s...as I hunt for more change down the side of my sofa...

The rest can beat me at the odds. Beckett has the fav also but up in class, up in trip, and 2nd run after a big effort on seasonal reappearance. I do think he's well handicapped, and he may storm away (shapes as if will relish it), but i'm both happy to leave at 4s or so, and take on. The unknowns are the reason for why he may progress (trip mainly) but also why the price, for me, is short. He's as yet proven to stay, and i'd want bigger.

As I am Monsiur L at 8s - he is interesting but up 2 classes, up in the weights and any soft is a question/unknown. Were he 12s/14s, maybe a dilemma. He needs more here and the two selections have a proven higher level of form already, for all that he did hack up LTO and clearly likes the track. Although he's 1 of 4 to hit the 'H' 'strategy' (section 2/3 qualifiers with a H next to their name). So, I won't begrudge him, if i've got it wrong.

Clearly those three winning won't shock me. The rest may do. I'll leave MJs pair who have some questions to answer now and I didn't like the rest at all.

Pace wise... Summer Moon may try and lead, Richard K can sit handy on mine from that draw, in a no excuses position SDS may try to get out and across from wide... the rest tend to be mid div or held up further back. I suspect Tom may try and get Just H handier over this distance, but we shall see. Fingers crossed one of them gets the job done.

I've decided to start with a bang and if it all goes to pot, tip toe through the rest of the week licking my wounds... maybe... or i'll follow Martin's advice and focus on some mundane meetings, C3s &4s!

GL with any bets as always.

If they all fall out the back of the TV i'll be licking my wounds, and will likely next email out on Saturday, hopefully with a decent Thursday/Friday behind me. Here's hoping. 

All the best, 

Josh