Hello Friend
Will the Lion Roar? 9/1 fancy below...
It's a new week and it could be a busy one at that. The less said about Saturday's efforts the better! Overwrite ran well, but was rightly disqualified, some bookies paying first past the post, some not. But officially a loser on the day. The other three were woeful. I'm not sure what's up with BlackHeath, but no excuse there to the eye. That Yarmouth win and how he tanked through The Bunbury Cup makes me think he's got something in him, as another cliff edge looms into view. Lomu was stuck on the wing, which I knew, so can't use that as an excuse... I was surprised Paul made not attempt to drop him in/get cover. He pulled like a train and had nothing left 2f out, although the effort suggested something else may have been troubling him. Both well backed, both well beaten. Both back in the notebook.
We move on. Today's tip from the blog is below and we shall see if he can break the 'curse of the emailed out tips' - i forget when I last emailed you a winner. I've also included the write up and various other musings you may find useful, all from today's blog post...
We have the Ebor meeting this week and as you read this email i'll be diving into HorseRaceBase to see if I can find any trainer / jockey pointers of note, as well as any other stats pointers of interest. They'll be up on the blog later today. I'll tread carefully on the tipping front, with the mauling from Glorious Goodwood nagging at me, as well as other recent Saturday/big race efforts.
Onto today...
Tips
The Flat 2020
(112 tips/17 wins/37 places (inc wins) /+77.6 points, advised/ +74.06 Betfair SP)
#1 - 2.20 Catt - Lion Tower - 1 point win - 12/1 (bet365) 9/1 (BV/WH)
(posted at 8.46 but prices holding)
Some Stats...Firstly, before I get to the write up, some stats of interest, for today and moving forwards... using the excellent Geegeez reports , and this time the Trainer/Jockey Combo report, there's 3 at the top of the pile for their track record in the last year, all race types... - Catterick: O'Meara/Tudhope - 5/10,7p
- Uttoxeter: Dr Newland/Sam T-D: 5/13,7p
- Uttoxeter: Jonjo O'Neil/ Junior : 5/10, 8p
They've 7 runners between them today. I haven't looked at them, I'll leave that to you! But possibly of some use either today, or moving forwards. Geegeez -don't forget you can have a free account, all you have to do is register. No payment details etc - each and every day you get free access to various content including the reports and the odd 'free to air' racecard etc.
Its the no brainer of all no brainers, especially if you like picking out your own winners - and in fact, whatever the free access is on said day, is a decent 'way in' or focal point in itself. It will improve your punting... Today's Races of the Day are: (free access to the geegeez racecards, which are on a different planet to anything in the Racing Post) - 13.30 Tipperary
- 13.45 Catterick
- 15.00 Tipperary
- 15.40 Uttoxeter
You can register for free on this page HERE>>>* Write up...
Lion Tower... (MJs sire stats qualifier in today's post as the 'way in')
I'm pretty convinced he's chucked in off 77, it's just a case of when it all clicks again. He dotted up in a couple of Southwell races earlier in the year - that looked to be riding deep there and takes some getting. No bother to him and he looks a unit. He returned at Ponte four starts back off 80 - fluffed the start, out the back, and somehow flew home up the straight into 2nd, winner long gone. Plenty may have needed the run but it was still an effort which suggested the handicapper doesn't yet have him. The Newmarket run was decent in a much deeper race than this, a C4 3YO only handicap, 80s horses. That race is working out well, 7/16, 9p since. This is weaker.
Strangely for this yard, and this sire, i'm not convinced he wants fast ground. At Newmarket he didn't look comfortable to me, and he definitely didn't at Leicester - i'd need to watch it again but on first viewing he appeared to change his legs a few times, didn't really pick up for pressure, wandered around - that can be a sign of them feeling the ground, and he was a bit wobbly at Ponte also, and Newmarket. It may be no surprise that his best runs have come at Southwell, and his best run on turf was two starts back at Ayr, on soft. Well, it was his best run in terms of RP Top Speed figure, and ignoring LTO he posted three consistent RPRs (Racing post ratings), 79, 81, 80. His last win an 85. He's off OR77 today. He was a bit buzzy there and got caught in a pocket for a time - he does look a proper galloper. But encouragingly he was staying on all the way to the line, not beaten far, in a bunch finish. They put the blinkers on him at Leicester which may have had an adverse effect, they try the visor today. But at least he's now used to some sort of headgear.
The other positive/what lured me in... was his draw in 1, and the fact that Kevin Ryan's horse is the only one in this to have lead on recent starts. In this visor, and given its Joe Fanning, i'd be shocked if he didn't boot him out and try to make all- the jockeys may decide to cross to this nearside rail which they can do when its soft, and if he can lead, and bag this rail up the straight, we could have some fun. Of course he may blow a gasket again or just be out of form / a bit of a monkey. And he may not handle coming down the hill. He has questions to answer obviously, hence why he was put in at 11s or so. But, for me, there's enough there to cling to at his price. This is the weakest handicap he's run in on turf, and this 7f could be right up his street. Hopefully he doesn't fluff the start - and if he's too keen again, so be it, but I think they should try and settle him on the front end - he enjoyed making all in his final Southwell win. And he's in the right place in HorseraceBase ratings which is always a positive, esp for a bigger priced one.
An interesting outsider for me and I couldn't leave him at that price, given the above.
Of the rest...
I was happy to take on the top two in the market. Tudhope's is unexposed but the ground a complete unknown - if he handles it he'd be thereabouts, but 4s to roll that dice. Not for me. His two runs on Gs not great, his win on GF. I'd want a bigger price I think, but he's lightly raced, from this yard, so a danger. Soaring Star is unexposed on handicap debut, but has had a wind op, 57 days off - and testing ground if you've a wind niggle may not be ideal. If he's A1 he could go well. And Stott may be aggressive - hopefully not. The market may guide and he's weak enough as I type, and he's yet to win a race - 5s or so always seem short enough to me in a 10+ runner race for a maiden, whatever they do.
Tadaawol - the proper 'been there and done it' horse in this, a CD winner, he is very very well handicapped now and arrives 'in form', having been 'running on' LTO. He does handle soft although his jockey could have a better record here... 1/46, 11p last 5 years. From this draw they may be more aggressive with him. I can see the case and why he's being nibbled at , and he could be the main danger. Maybe I haven't mentioned the winner but it did feel an open handicap to me,nothing leaping of the page as 'the one to beat'.
Pace/running style... you do need to prominent over this CD ideally (yes yes, as you do at Ripon in sprints, doh) and there's no excuses for mine - surely Joe will know there's a lack of pace on paper in this, and it's there to be dictated. In any case he should be in a 'no excuses' position if breaking on terms. Some of the others who can race prominent are drawn wide, those in boxes 9/10/11 - their jockeys have a dilemma. Go forward/fear getting trapped wide, or use up too much gas to get a position, or take them back and ride for luck.
We will find out soon enough.
All comments welcome, do say hello and let us know what you fancy today. You get public praise if landing on a winner, and no one says a word if its a loser - i mean, most of our picks lose, that's the game. Thankfully the winners make up for them long term.
Geegeez Gold - don't forget to register for your free account. If you like picking your own winners I don't know why you wouldn't sign up, given how good the tools are.
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I think that's it for today... ah no, i'll mention 'From The Stables' for one final time.
Around 50 of you have signed up to give the 28 day trial a go and I hope the trial proves successful. Some of you will really enjoy it and for some it may not be for them. That is the point of risk-free trials.
It's a very unique service and if you like the idea of having access to the daily thoughts of 15 top trainers, + the views of Tony Stafford, it's worth a look.
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All the best,
Josh
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