Hello Friend
I'll jump straight to it...
3.35 Ayr : Scottish Grand National
Takingrisks - 1 point win - 25/1 (lad/BV/Coral) 32.00 BetExch
Chic Name - 1 point win - 20/1 (gen) 30.00 BetExch
Brian Boranha - 1 point win - 33/1 (WH/BV/BetfS/PP) 44.00 BetExch
Chidswell - 1 point win - 22/1 (BVBetfS/PP/) 27.00 BetExch
That's all for this race! As of 09.20 when posted on blog HERE>>>
I'm fast running out of time today, a busy day ahead, but in general I like to go with a handful of pokes in this race. In the last four renewals i've landed on Wayward Prince at 25s/33s (forget which) and Joe Farrel last year at 40s. I could do with landing on another like that as it's been a while since I landed on a jumps biggie.
My 'win only' approach isn't for most in these race types and staking is very much up to the individual. Historically at least 1 point win versus 1/2 point EW, has pulled in far more profits over time for me, but of course it means the losing runs/no return, can be very long, especially so after last year's heady heights where everything went right. The betting gods have been slapping me around the face for a few months now, in what mathematically is a correction from that barmy run last March-July. Anyway...
Takingrisks... he hits my stats profile for this, which is only helpful to a point, but he will stay. He runs as if he's been crying out for a go at a marathon trip. He's been in the form of his life this season and is lightly enough raced for his age. The CP helped him LTO and he arrives in form. He's run well on good ground and his staying on runs at Haydock (had beaten Vintage Clouds two strides after the line) and Wetherby are decent form. There's a chance this happens too quick, he makes the odd error, gets too far back and that's that. That's a concern for a few of mine in truth, but I get big prices to find out. He shapes as if he will devour this trip, whether he's in a good position to get rolling as they turn for home, we shall see.
Chic Name... well if he jumps off prominently as with LTO, he should be right up there all the way through this. His run LTO was a career best on the figures so he arrives at the top of his game, and he's only 7 and still open to improvement especially over a marathon trip. He seems to come alive at this time of year, had some decent hurdle form to his name and ran well in last year's X Country at Aintree, but outclassed by much higher rated rivals, off level weights. He's won the National up at Perth, and I don't think the trip will stop him. Removing the hood appeared to work wonders LTO, and it remains to be seen whether it will work again. But that was an impressive win at Newbury, beating last year's winner of this, not stopping come the line and the front two miles clear of the rest. He gets a 1st TT here which is interesting, maybe it will help, albeit it seems odd to add it now. Burke has ridden the horse before and i'm excited to see how he runs. IF he can hold a position near the front and jump as well as LTO, i'll be on the edge of my seat as they turn for home.
Brian Boranha ... I couldn't resist him at the price here given that he's shaped like a through stayer all his life really. It's no shock that his career best was when stepped up in trip at Sedgefield earlier on in the season, in the Durham National. It was a facile victory, admittedly in a mediocre enough race maybe. This has been the plan since and he relishes fast/good jumping ground. He had a decent prep LTO, staying on at Donny, and he could out-run his price. The fear, like the one above, is that he simply doesn't have the pace to hold a position at this level, and he then starts hitting fences. That is possible, but at 33s+ I couldn't help myself. His trainer has long thought him a Scottish National type, we will find out if he's right!
Chidswell... he was the last one I added, having originally landed on the three above. However I decided to take his recent runs at face value. His connections have always been pessimistic about whether he's a stayer but the facts are the two best chase runs of his life have been the last twice, stepped up to 3m+, 26f at Donny LTO. He somewhat hacked up there, putting Dingo Dollars in his place. His stablemate came down at the last there but he'd have still won easily enough. He's another that is all about rhythm and his chance will come down to whether he settles, and gets into one. If he can hold a position in mid div, and he jumps as he can/warms up, he will out run these odds I think. Whether he stays beyond 26f is a question, but there's only one way to find out! Richards has been having a decent season and remains in form.
So, those are the four for me. Of course, as always, and has been the case many many times (too many for my liking) this season, I may not have mentioned the winner.
This is a game of odds and I simply didn't like anything at 12s or below, those prices just not big enough for me.
Crosshue Boy has a chance if he stays, and he stayed on well to win at this meeting last year. I can see the case, but he did hit a fence that day and stamina is a complete guess. Guessing is fine, but not at 9/1 in my view, in a race like this. I won't be shocked if he bolts up I suppose, he has that sort of profile, but I'd want 16s+ i think. And sadly I haven't got that.
Vintage Clouds is probably becoming a cliff horse for many in these sorts of races. I'd applaud him home if he wins this, as he'd deserve it. However he hasn't had the perfect prep and that first fence fall in THE Grand National may have left a mark mentally. In any case he is a slow old boat and I think something will have more toe than him from 2/3 out here. I could be wrong- he may have jumped and galloped them silly by that point, but he was never a big enough price for me.
Dingo Dollar... neither was he. He has stamina to prove and is getting a bit disappointing now, but King knows what it takes to win this and he will race prominently. He's unexposed, goes well here, the ground is ideal,. and I can see the case. But again, not at his price for me.
The same with Cloth Cap, who does look intriguing. He is one I fear but his price just couldn't lure me in given his chase inexperience and the 140+ day break. It's hard to win races like this after such an absence. I won't be shocked if he went very close here as he shapes like a through stayer, but I just couldn't be lured in at 12s/14s. Maybe I have him wrong.
Big River... as I may this one. A quite extraordinary run LTO. My issues with him are the same that niggle me with three of mine, however he was 10s, now drifting to 12s. He struggled to hold a position LTO in soft at Cheltenham, his jumping partly to blame. On this drying ground my concern was that he may get too far back, errors will creep in, and that will be that. All said in the context of his price. Were he 16s+ i'd probably have had a go, as how a horse finishes as fresh as he did LTO I have no idea. He was sprinting past tiring horses, which made it look more impressive, but if he holds a position and jumps well, he's the one I fear most of 'the shorties'
Such is the nature of this race I may still have not mentioned the winner! Horses that PU or UR rider have an awful record in this in the last 22 years or so, and I never like one who's done either of those LTO, going into a race like this. If one of them wins, then so be it, but while I looked through every runner in this in some depth, I was happy to discard those.
If something else wins that I haven't mentioned, then so be it. It wasn't meant to be this year! :)
Best of luck, as always, with any bets,
Josh |
