Hello Friend
Festival 'through the card': AYR
(Chelt +36 points, Aintree +24points)
From my members' post, some 'Festival Through The Card' selections/notes from Ayr.
1.50 - Galvin 5/4
2.20 - Equus Millar 13/2 / Roachdale House 14/1
2.55 - Before Midnight / Land Of Smiles 6/1
3.25 - Members Tip / Beggars Wish (of those 10s+, most interesting)
4.00 - Peppay Le Pugh 7/2
4.30 - Angel Of Harlem (NM tip)
5.05 -My Way (Nicholls Micro) 10/3
Galvin - he does look the most solid fav on the card to my eyes and he is the one to beat. I liked the fact he has small field form, and is thus tactically versatile/has a turn of foot. I'm sure the next two in the market may prefer a stronger pace but maybe i've got the Nicholls horse wrong. Connections of Seddon really like him but he hasn't gone on and has had a few chances now, and runs as if he wants further than this. The Elliot horse will do for me although of course I won't be shocked if one of the other two takes it, but on what they've done/how this race may be run, he's the one for me.
Equus Millar - he's solid here and is still open to improvement over 2m. He will need to improve again but that's possible and it could be he's best fresh/on his first couple of starts after a break. I'd like to think this has been the plan. Roachdale House looks a lively outsider. He had 400+ days off before his return this season and he looks as if he wants decent ground. He's run on soft plenty in Ireland when seemingly floundering late on but has some ok form to his name, inc at the Galway Festival. Coleman is 6/16,8p with all his rides here in the last year and the odd Irish Raider does well at this meeting (well, i'm remembering Crosshue Boy who won a race here last year) He's no forlorn hope at a price. I like the King horse, but I don't like his price, but wouldn't be shocked if he runs a big race and is still open to improvement. He hadn't been asked a question in the Greatwood when coming to grief 2 out (still a long way to go/omitted hurdles up straight) and he needs a solid pace to aim at.
Before Midnight - Henderson has had a few places in handicap hurdles at the meeting but no wins in recent years however this one has been crying out for 3m to my eyes, and even more so when you look at his breeding/relations. He's got plenty of improvement in him over this trip. He pulled far too hard in soft at Sandown LTO and will clearly need to settle better, but at 6s I thought he was worth chancing. My starting point at this meeting, as it should have been at recent Festivals and wasn't, was can I make a case for Festival Trainers X horses... well the three at this meeting at Nicholls, Henderson and Skelton. For Chelt/Aintree/Irish meetings, if you add in Colin Tizard, Gordon Elliot, Willie Mullins, Jessie H and Henry De Bromhead then you have 'the eight' I think, who's runners should be top of the list for initial analysis, with JOB creeping up the list. I like Rhythm Is A Dancer, but I don't like his price - the Nicholl's horse in the last looks better to my eyes at the odds- this one is unproven over the trip and while I think he may improve for it, it's a short price to find out. He's also never raced LH before, which is odd, and I wonder if that's been deliberate. Money is coming for Landofsmiles and I can see why, given he arrives in form, fit, and was staying on over 23f LTO. He needs to improve but is unexposed over this trip and in decent ground. Actually, at 6s the pair, it may be wise to have both onside!
3.25 - If you want to add another one to my members tip from last night, it's a toss up I think between Forth Bridge and Beggars Wish, the latter the bigger price at 12s/14s. The former was transformed for a change of tactics LTO and they may work again, but the idea of knowingly backing a hold up chaser, in any race, gives me cold sweats. They really are not the type to back for long term success and I can only think they will ride him cold again. That may make 8s about right,but if he has turned a corner, he's a danger- i'm still not sure on him in a battle though, if he has to get down and dirty. Beggars Wish.... well his wins last May and in October are some of the best performances in this race, from any of them, in their careers to date arguably. The break may have done him good and i'd like to think he'll be primed for this. He does clearly stay 20/21f+ and I did have a concern about whether this would happen too quickly, but it probably means Sean will be aggressive on him, and have him handy. If he's travelling comfortably near the front he could give my tip something to think about over the last couple.
Peppay Le Pugh - he hits the Skelton pointers and looks solid enough. He can be keen but his the form of his last chase run four starts back is solid enough. 2m on decent ground are ideal for him, and if he settles, he won't be far away. He's hard fit and they may have been running him in novice hurdles to try and teach him how to race, without impacting his chase mark - i'm not sure if that's working or not but there could be some pace to settle behind here, esp if Cook is aggressive
Angel Of Harlem - i've deferred to Nick's tip (a member who tips, and who most of us follow given his superb record) in this, he explains his case in members' post, and I can't disagree with that. He will do!
My Way - he hits my Nicholls' handicap micro angle from the report above, the yard are going well, and I can make a strong case. 10/3 looks fine, even more so for an 'at the races' poke. He runs as if he will relish every single yard of this trip and improve for it. He does look the most interesting in this line up to me.
So, that will do. 9 'through the card' pokes, Chelt and Aintree went very well on the 'through the card' front, sadly much better than my handicap 'tipping' which still keeps me awake at night. The betting gods will strike me back down again with these soon enough, but hopefully a handful of winners/profit above to add to the +60 points from this year's Jumps Festivals so far. We shall see!
Best of luck, Josh
p.s >>>
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