Hello Friend

It's been a tough few weeks in RTP headquarters (it's just me, a desk and a computer :)) - woeful really. Plenty of near misses but also many darts that haven't even reached the board. 

One thing I can't stand is 'tipsters' who make excuses. 90% of what happens in this game is predictable, 5% is down to animals being animals and there's maybe 5% which will always leave us puzzled (maybe higher). But that's the game. I/we have to work harder, study harder, review positively, and crack on.The error is usually ours, either in the approach, process and/or mental fragility at times - that's the reality. And not being prepared for the bad days. This game can tame lions, and while i'm in the process of being tamed (not for the first time and it won't be the last) i've clung to some positives. 

My issues may be down to being too foolhardy with the big 4/5 day Flat Festivals. Too many bets, too gun-ho.  Did I get lucky at Royal Ascot with a 33/1 winner? Maybe - but after Royal Ascot the wheels fell off at Goodwood/York and Donny so far this weak...

46 bets / 2 wins / 12p (inc wins) / -6.4 / +11.43 BFSP.

Remove Scarlett Dragon (who was 55s or so BFSP) and that pile looks even worse.  I've had a few monsters go close mind. Still, not great is it. 

I do take some confidence from the 'normal' tips, outside of those Festivals which are the most competitive handicaps around (seemingly I can't help myself, and we go again today)... those daily flat tips are...

105 bets / 17 wins / 41 places (inc wins) / +52.5 advised (non bog) / +30 BFSP

That is decent and this is the first season i've properly attacked the flat daily, tipping wise. Which in part is why everything is still free to air. I've enjoyed it, for the most part. And the challenge is part of the fun. It would be boring if it was easy. 

But, as a collective, i'm on a -40 point drawdown from my highest point. (those Festivals to blame) I don't know a 'race advisor' around who doesn't have -40-100 drawdowns at some point over a 2-5 year period (and more than one), especially when regulalry playing in C2 handicaps - if and they say they don't, they're telling fibs. That, or I need to get them posting on my blog! :) That's not to look for excuses, but to realise these runs can be part of the game - but how you deal with them, reflect and improve,  is important. 

This is a long game, and i've bottled a couple of recent Saturdays.  (missing out on Lucander 14s York and Documenting 12s last week in the process - unforgivable in this small corner of ours, but the human mind is a funny beast) 

I've not bottled today, and time will tell whether that's wise or not! 

So, with the bluster out the way, let's crack on... from today's blog post...

Tips

The Flat 2020

(152 tips/19 wins/53 places (inc wins) /+46.1 points, advised/ +41.4 Betfair SP)

#1 - 1.15 Donc - Diocles Of Rome - 1 point win - 11/1 (bet365/WH/BV)

#2 - 1.15 Donc - Misty Grey - 1 point win - 14/1 (bet365 / WH /888/BV/Unib) (since lost a leg, big price on the machine, if you're playing, head to betfair) 

#3 - 2.40 Chest - Victory Chine - 1 point win - 6/1 (bet365) 11/2 (gen)

#4 - 2.25 Donc - Hans Solo Berger - 1 point EW - 28/1 (SkyB/WH/PP - 6 places)

That's all for today, #1/2/3 as of 08.47, #4 as of 09.59,(when posted on blog) 

write ups...

1.15

Diocles Of Rome

11/1 was all wrong for this Trainer Profiles qualifier, who also hits my race trends. He has some solid form to his name and arrives here on the back of a decent run, his seasonal return. He tanked through that and got tapped for toe to my eyes, but stayed on very well, doing all his best work late. He closed there like a horse who's got something to play with off 87 and many of Beckett's would normally step forward for the run. He could be one of these progressive 5YOs, the year that flat horses often fully mature. He does have to prove his stamina but he hasn't raced over 8f since he was 3 and how he shaped LTO/his breeding suggests it may be what he wants - his trainer clearly thinks it is, and he's in solid form again - and does well here.

The wind has played havoc this week - into their faces all 3 days so far and i'll assume so again - unlike York/Ascot, Donny don't seem to have as in depth info - they set the standards for their Festivals, links via BHA site to various info, and all tracks should be required to do the same. Anyway, this one is high, on the wing - stalls up the centre. But the pace - Teston/Overwrite is middle to high, he could get out, and tuck in behind Frankie. No excuses.

He was overpriced, whatever he does here. I expect a big run.

Misty Grey 

He's since lost a leg since posting (esp on the machine), so no doubt 1 point loanedback for now... He's got some questions but at 14s (now 18s), I found it hard to resist. MJ is 1/9,4p in the race , he hits my limited trends and 3YOs do have a solid record. He was rather eye-catching LTO and clearly has wins in him from this mark. He was sent off 50s there, held up cold, staying on very well in a solid C2 over 8f at Kempton. With a more prominent ride/stronger pace, he would have been very close, but I doubt that was the plan.

Joe jumps on today, he rides this place well, and on MJs handicappers here, returning within 10 days, he's 4/9,5p. A random stat but still, every little helps!

His 2YO form is rather good inc getting close to Pinatubo, and various other Listed/Group runs, including here on Good to Firm, it was a 3 runner race but he got outpaced again over 6f, stayed on, beaten a nose - by Lazuli. He's had a solid season, listed win, now rated 109. Brad The Brief behind, and he won a listed race a few days back.

The form is there to suggest 96 is workable, and of course he's an unexposed 3YO. Breeding suggests he wants a trip. The ground is a niggle- Dark Angel's can like cut, he handled Good/Firm last year, but if he's bigger/stronger now a chance he feels it. But i'm educated guessing there, for a 14s shot. I'll roll the dice. He's one to track for the remainder of the season, whatever he does here. Could be one for the winter AW championships also. If he loses, hopefully just 1 point loaned!

Of the rest... one of the top two may win, but have questions at the prices for me. Maybe Walker's will have too much, but a chance he gets outpaced, and he needs more, although a solid run LTO given he was keen/trapped wide. Prob the right fav but he's low on the wing, hopefully battered by any wind. La Trinidad should go well- maybe they'll race him more prominently. The yard are iffy at the moment but the horse was in form when last seen. Still, 11/2 for horses who can be held up and seemingly 'finish strong' is short enough for me.

It would be typical for Overwrite to beat me - conditions may be ideal. He'd be the annoying on given my history with him this season, inc LTO (what a stupid bet, 10f in soft). 8f on decent ground is his thing. I'd have thought Joe would have the choice but who knows. If the headwind is as strong as yesterday he could have his work cut out on the front end. Still, he's a lovely horse and deserves another win. The market is suggesting I may have picked the wrong MJ horse (10s>7s), but the selection is open to further improvement and he's open to attack from something better treated.

*

2.25 - Hans Solo Berger

Well with 6 places available with SB/WH/PP -  (with any luck you still have at least one of those in use if following) - I had to go EW I think - having said I want to stick to just 1 point wins (and that will be the norm from now on) - i decided it would be over-confidence, or stupidity, to not go EW with these placed terms. IF he runs his race, gets a run, i'll be surprised if he's not top 6, (+4.6 points on race or so if placing) but i've said that before (well, usually with 5 places, said horses then finishing 6th!)

His price is just all wrong here to my faltering festival eyes.

He doesn't appear anywhere above in the blog content but as it's a trends race /feature handicap i've had a good look, and he was the one my pin landed on.

Firstly I think he's in the right place on the track - with Ornate out, there is no pace for the high horses to tow them into it - Mountain Peak, Jawwaal and Soldier's Minute 'could' be marooned up this side, and have their work cut out.

Hans is right next to Meraas, Just Another Bottle and Momentofmadness who generally like to go forward. Yimou can from 13 but i'm not sure he's quick enough to sustain it. Barbill to his left can go forward also, and I suspect Konchek may blast out from 1, in 1st visor (which put me off, decided he needs more to cling on here, but he's interesting). He should be able to sit prominently without being rushed off his feat, behind all those horses, with cover. George seems to have admitted in his RP quote that he rode him wrong two starts back - well he was too far back. It was his first run at York though and in a C2. That was a deeper race than this IMO, Jawaal behind him there. Tarboosh has franked the form, as has Hyperfocus. Soldier's Minute re-opposes (this could be sharp enough for him, and no pace his side) . The pace held up that day also, which surprised me -ah if only the winner had folded, as my two 50/1 monsters chased him home. Fine margins. I have the same feeling - both gut and head - as I did for Tarboosh and Soldiers M at York, but of course I went win only there, lured in by the big exchange prices.

Really, he hasn't run a bad race all season and has been very consistent. He's clearly improved massively this year as a 5YO. He ran a stormer at Newmarket LTO - soft enough for him and shouldering 10st. It was a C4 but the unexposed 3YO came into it on the back of a C2 win at York in an ok apprentice race- and with the jockeys claim, Hans was giving him 20lb! Beaten 3/4 of a length. That's a big run. And also a career/seasons best on RPRs. He also has course form which helps. The ground will be fine and I expect a monster run. Whether this is one trip to the well too many, we shall see. But he's 28s.

His trainer is in red hot form- the most in form trainer in the race I think, 3/12,5p the last 14 days, 7/28, 10p the last 30. He's actually had 3 runners in this race, 2 of them have placed.

Looking through this, he was the standout at the prices.

I could go through many of the others, but I can't be bothered really. These races are what they are. I didn't like the prices of all those under 10/1 and they all have various questions to answer - in the context of price. They can beat me, which maybe one will.

I suppose the annoying two would be Mountain Peak and Konchek, who appear above in various places and do well against HorseRacebase ratings. Still, MP has his draw to overcome (but I may have read that wrong) and does need more, up 4lb in a deeper race, and K has 1st visor which I don't really like in races like this - and he was stuffed in this last year-  that's what put me off, and stall 1 doesn't have a great record in this race /trip /field size. And being prominent, if the wind is the same as all week, may not be ideal. But, maybe it will now be a tailwind and he'll get out and stay out! Barbill is a previous losing tip from Goodwood, then left LTO. Damn. I wonder if this ground may be quick enough, and in any case he needs more/has the odd question now in a race of this nature.

Clearly you can make cases for many, that's the nature of the beast. But he just looks the wrong price to me. Way too big, in a race that often throws up a decent priced winner. Here's hoping. I could do with another monster landing.

*

Victory Chime - 

Hopefully I won't need him to get me out of another Saturday hole (i can't stop digging) but i'm confident he will. I think he just wins. Maybe that's too confident but in any case, 11/2 gen was big in this line up, esp after Maydanny came out. That makes this a weak enough C2.

He ran LTO as if there's more to come from him this season - a day of the 5 year olds! Maybe. That was a deeper C2 than this and he was poorly positioned - too far back in a race where it paid to be handy. He used a lot of gas to get into a challenging position, but was still running on at the end. That Windsor win is working out ok and Beckett has booked Hanagan - they're 3/7,5p when teaming up in the last 5 years - 2/3, 3p at Chester! Solid. In we go. (PH can't do the weight for Fahey's runner in this, 8-6 the lowest he's ridden in last year) The visor also returns - 2/3 when wearing it - and he is maybe the sort that needs it changing up every now and then. But he's nothing but consistent. Or has been. Let's all pray for The Beckett double! Chester another track he does well at.

He should race handily - further forward than at Sandown, no excuse here.

Lawn Ranger will try and lead - the form of his race LTO is working out well, with Straight of H winning here this week in a decent handicap. But he is 0/5 0p at C2 level, 0/6,1p OR 91+, and a new jockey on. Pass.

Prejudice - I just don't like him - he may well beat me but I can take him on at the price - to my eyes he dogs it in when challenged - well, maybe that's harsh - just a bit too soft/backs out - he should have won the last twice for me. He's 1/11, 2/1. Nope. (obviously he'll now show true battling qualities) If he has to pass Victory Chime - he should do if PH rides him properly, he could be in trouble. Mine will fight him off, I think. Be More needs more I think, I could leave at 9/2. The Dr's two have even more questions.

This is VCs for the taking I think. In any case 11/2 was silly. He should be 7/2, 3s in this line up for me.

*

So, four pokes. Hopefully one of them can get the job done otherwise we are getting into horrible territory given this run. But having bottled a few Saturdays after poor form in previous days/Fridays (mental weakness, missing 2/3 decent winners), that isn't the way forwards. This game is for the foolhardy, and the brave. On we march... possibly to 'normal' races, but this is the last of the big 4/5 day flat festivals at least. It will soon be the turn of the jumpers for me to anguish over :)

All of the above, the rest of the content (inc stats/trends pointers etc) and reader's wisdom, is in the usual spot HERE>>>

As always, GL with any bets, 

Josh