Hello Friend
I hope this email finds you well. I was away in sunny Cyprus last week, hence nothing much from me.
Below you can find the race preview I've sent to The Plumbers' Owners. I won't send these out every time of course but thought you may find it interesting.
As I'll be there along with 22 owners and their guests, I thought I'd also produce a 'through the card' , so we shall see how those picks run! You can find that further down.
Fist up...
Thanks to those of you who took part in the Royal Ascot tipping competition, around 78 of you. It was a tough day but three of you landed on a couple of nice winners...
1st: Paul Morin , +23 points (+£25)
2nd: Malcolm Pendry: +17 (+£15)
3rd: Michael Helm: +15.5 (+£10) (I think Michael also had x1 2nd place, and as per the rules when a tie, that puts him ahead of Malc Jannaway, who had the same total points, sorry Malc!)
Once this email is sent I'll be wiring the prizes.
*
8.20 Stratford - The Plumber
The going is officially 'good', they had 3mm yesterday, sunny and breezy today. ... it looks like being the firmest ground he's run on since Market Rasen, certainly no soft in it officially unlike his last two runs, so we will learn something there also. I think he'll enjoy this ground more than Worcester and Southwell...
I won't repeat in depth the context of my last owners email - some trepidation given he wasn't at his best on his last proper gallop, for all Amy was more concerned with it than Jack was, and we'll get his thoughts pre race later on. There's a chance he's just not quite himself this week but there isn't a reason not to run him on what the team can see at home. If he runs very flat without any other excuse (over-racing without the hood, wasting energy), we will know something is up.
However...
Since then he's shown enough zest in his schooling, the video shared in the Owners WhatsApp group. He certainly knows how to jump and having watched the last one or two runs of every opponent today, of those with hurdles experience, he's been by far the best - so far! Of course they are all entitled to improve dramatically from one start to the next.
Our lad is here to run his best and to win, however as previously discussed we are using this race to try and learn something about him, with two major changes...
The hood - this has been removed and it remains to be seen if he can settle when in and around horses. Amy thinks he should be fine in the prelims , for all he still can get spooked by the odd thing when on the way to the gallops, which isn't unusual. He's still growing up, or that's just him. Amy has no concerns pre race, as he's very professional, it's just what he does in the race and none of us really know what's going to happen. Hopefully he shows plenty of enthusiasm but in a controlled way.
Tactics - on his last three starts he's had to lead. There hasn't been loads of pace and Jack's been keen to put his Irish Point experience to good use/his professionalism, and in the context he should stay further than 2m. I've always thought he's shown the most life at home when he's been working upsides horses, enjoying the competition and/or having something to run alongside, keeping his competitive juices flowing. I say that in context of how he fought and battled at Market Rasen when others came to him.
We are keen to see what he does when held onto, in and around horses. Combined with removing the hood, this could backfire if lighting him up too much but there's only one way to find out. There's the odd horse who can go forward for all I think that if he's at his most enthusiastic Jack may struggle to keep him behind if they dawdle, and he may have no other option than to just unleash him. I'd like to think his legs just move quicker than some of these but it's whether he allows Jack to go at his pace through the first part of the race. We shall see!
The other thing to say is that this course and distance may be sharp enough for him, and it's not impossible that turning for home he gets outpaced, before running on. That's if he's not streaked clear of them by then, you never know!
There is also the potential impact of the rail - the hurdles course is on the inside and they can race up against the rail the whole way, including up the straight. This is the first time he's had that scenario since Market Rasen also and maybe he'll enjoy the comfort of having something to run up against, and it may stop him drifting left under pressure. It was one of the reasons I was keen to come here rather than say Worcester again. We should learn something on that front also.
I should mention that this is his first start over conventional hurdles on course also, Southwell being 'fixed brush hurdles' which are more like mini fences. There's no reason he shouldn't fly them.
So, that's where we are with him. Anything could happen. He could just have far too much for these. I remain convinced his Market Rasen effort was very good, but the 1st, 3rd and 4th have yet to run since, the rest in behind don't look a great bunch.
As was his effort at Southwell. He has bumped into two decent horses now, and without them he'd have been a comfortable winner both times. Makthecat, who was well stuffed in that race, took a massive step forward yesterday and won, which is great for his Geegeez owners who've had to be very patient, and any boost to form is always a positive. That does just show you the giants steps forward these immature jumps horses can make from one run to the next.
As per above, there are reasons why he 'could' run flat, and not run his race. And we do all need to be prepared for that (his last piece of work which was so so against his usual high standards, and removing the hood - will he waste too much energy through the race, or will it have a positive impact and spark him into more life, but controlled, showing the zip he does at home when at his best?)
What of the opposition...
4/1 the field would tell you everything you need to know about how open this looks on paper. While open, I'm not convinced it's the strongest bunch and a few have been given ratings already. If I'm honest I'd like to think in time The Plumber will be a fair bit better than this lot, with the possible exception of Fountain Cross, who was behind us last time and of those with flat form (plenty in here) was the best. That doesn't always translate though.
If I go in market order as I type...
Patient Dream - this lad needs to learn to settle and when he does, he will take a decent step forward. He pulled fiercely at Worcester and it's to his credit he was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths. He did the same last time at Huntingdon, but did far too much, plodding on from before the last. They have tried to settle him behind horses, they've tried to settle him in front- I'm hoping he's the main pace angle and he'll just run away with his jockey again, but I'm not convinced. We shall see, but if he keeps pulling as he has done, he won't be winning this. The 1st tongue tie may help and the yard in ok form. He is only 4 and was a x4 winner on the turf, the ability is there somewhere. Connections paid 68k Guineas for him at a horses in training sale last October. Not that I take note of such sales figures! (The Plumber cost £10k all in) He's 0/6 since and they'll want him showing something more soon. He already has a jumps rating of 103 and I suspect they're waiting for him to learn how to settle before pitching him into a handicap.
Barenboim - one for Fergal O'Brien here and he shapes as if he'll get better with racing. He's an ex Flat horse also who's now 0/11,3p in his career. He has shaped the last twice as if he wants further than 2m but he's been given a mark of 104 already. They remove the tongue tie here, and maybe now Paddy knows him he will decide to put his stamina to good use and go forwards. In saying that there is a chance he just doesn't stay, that remains to be seen. He wasn't exactly strong at the finish last time. Again though, he's only 4 and should take a stride forward from run to run as he learns more about the jumping game and as the team at home learn more about him. And as he matures physically. Fergal's in decent form as always. Still, he does need to step forward. He cost £20k at a horse in training sale, arguably a better buy than the one above on evidence to date but time will tell. He's out of Derby winner Golden Horn, whose offspring are generally doing well when sent jumping, for all I doubt never plan A!
Fountain Cross - IF we run our race, he could have him to contend with here. Tom was very kind to him last time I thought, keen to settle him and get him jumping. He did over-race and his jumping was scrappy at times but he's just the sort to take a big step forward here. I also think he will appreciate this better ground. I think he'll run a big race if following up but again he is inexperienced and if our lad runs to his best he's a bit to find. I'm not sure he will come on fitness wise from last time, but more so mentally.
Larusso - he's a six race maiden (yet to win) who has some ok efforts to his name but needs more. Again he shapes as if he may want much further than this, another who's been given a mark after two starts, of 99. He did run well at Uttoxeter when last seen, however the 3 hurdles up the straight were omitted due to low sun and he wasn't exactly fluent at those that remained. He has improvement in him jumping wise but when/if it clicks, he should step forward. That could be today. At least he arrives fit and in form and he did find for pressure there, maybe in front too soon.
Crews Pitch - he has a Point win over 2m and he did show something in an Exeter bumper for his previous trainer. He showed plenty on yard debut 13 days ago at Uttoxeter, where he jumped ok, and stayed on all the way to the line, showing a good attitude. He shaped there if he may want further in time but there's no reason why he shouldn't run his race. With no handicap mark yet, and without a grip on the form of his last start, he's a bit of an unknown quantity here and at 8/1 could be a lively 'outsider' / danger. This is a canny operation who may well now decide to get him handicapped. It will be interesting to see how he goes.
The others look to be unfancied at the moment.
One Last Dance - makes hurdle/jumps debut. Many unknowns with him including stamina but he has won on the AW over 8.5f, suggesting his attitude is fine and maybe he can stay 16f over jumps. I'd like to think they'll give him a quiet introduction, get him jumping, and to see what they've got. But you never know.
Gold Wing - h'es 0/15, 3p in his career and makes hurdles/jumps debut here also, another ex flat horse. Plenty of unknowns - can he jump, will he stay, can he settle? These ex flat horses can take a while to get used to slower jumps tempo. Milton Harris is having a fine time of it though and just the sort he'll have some fun with in time.
Reams Of Love - A son of Frankel, another ex Flat horse, 1/14 in his career, 0/3 over hurdles. He hasn't shown enough in three starts to date, however the first two runs were on soft and his run last time was his first start in 70 days, so he could come on for it. He stayed 1m4f on the flat and is no forlorn hope I suppose but it depends what connections' plans are with him. He was 13l lengths behind Larusso and on that basis I'm not sure why he improves past him. Just the cool £80k as a yearling, D J Jeffreys having picked him up for £22k.
Inajiffy - he wears a first time tongue-tie, his 6th career start but has yet to get within 31 lengths of victory. His last start was his first in 1248 days and maybe they'll be bringing him along slowly. Although he is aged 9 and has clearly had plenty of issues.
Pace - who will lead/where will they slot in?
It's always hard to know in these races. Patient Dream has gone forward and may pull himself there (connections can't decide whether to settle him in front, or behind horses and Henry Brooke may have his own ideas), Paddy Brennan may change things up and be more prominent IF connections have decided he wants further. Tom C may have Fountain Cross more forward with that experience under his belt. Larusso was up there last time also. SO, hopefully they can go enough of a gallop for Jack to be happy with a more patient ride. IF The Plumber over-races, Jack will have a dilemma - either trying to keep hold of him and teaching him to settle, or just letting him go and trying to do so on the front end. My fear is they may not go quick enough for him and he may well have to take it up earlier than planned. We will soon find out.
All horses I've been involved with usually win when I'm on the fences/least expect it! At his best, even on what we've seen so far (at home, Market Rasen, Southwell) he's more than good enough to beat these. 7s is a tad insulting, but of course with all those caveats above.
As always, if you've any questions or thoughts, don't hesitate to email in.
I will be track-side and if you're going, I'll see you there. Any problems give me a call.
*
Stratford ‘through the card‘
prices as of 9am when posted on blog...
6.20 – pass, either could take that. For placepot purposes i’d just prefer Jonjo’s.
6.50 – Sir Tivo – 10/3
7.20 – Justified – 9/2
7.50 – On Springs – 11/4-3/1
8.20 – The Plumber – 5/1 EW (now 7s, bigger the better)
8.50 – Shady Daisy – 5/2
*
Notes…
6.50 – Sir Tivo –
I had a brief chat with Adam Norman on WhatsApp last night who asked if it was public knowledge that Sean Bowen is going all out for the jockeys title this season… in truth I wasn’t! Chris Dixon is now his agent, which given his form/race reading abilities is no bad thing either. If that’s the case he’ll clearly be trying to get his foot in the door with many more yards and it will be interesting to see how that plays out.
In the last 30 days he’s 13/53, 24p, +24 SP. Brian Hughes is 15/68, 28p. It will be some tussle if they can keep that up.
This horse… a CD winner, x6 chase winner who’s been running well. In truth, unless track-side, I’m not sure you’d dive in to what looks a competitive enough race. X3 LTO winners oppose and some of their form ties in. Sir T was ahead of Pipes before he the won, Larch Hill and Atlantic Storm have faced each other recently. I concluded Sir T may have more class than the others in here and his recent efforts may well just be better, a repeat of which could well be good enough. But, it does have an open feel. He should race prominently.
Sean and Gary H are 12/25, 14p, +56 when teaming up in the last year and the trainer has a decent course record.
7.20- Justified –
Hopefully the first leg of a double for Jack! I don’t like asking him about his other rides etc so there’s no thoughts from him here, but with my own eyes I did like how this one won last time. He’s ex Mark Johnston and you could tell that by how he put his head down, responded to pressure and kept going. When it clicks over hurdles these horses can just take off and the hope is that he does here. He is up in class but I thought well on top last time. More experience and better ground has worked for him – they handicapped him on softer, clever, legitimate handicapping. This is over slightly further also and he shapes as if he could relish the trip. I couldn’t see why he wouldn’t run his race and we will see if that’s good enough, but as yet we don’t know where his ceiling is.
Neil is 11/45, 21p with his Stratford runners in the last 5 years, +27 . And he does well with LTO winners, 9/35, 17p, +26 in the last 2 years.
7.50 – On Springs –
This is a tight race also. I’ve gone with the one who’s in some sort of form, has a chase win/experience, and in theory there should be more to come. He’s clearly a bit lazy at times which may not be ideal around this tighter track but they swap the headgear again, 1st Visor this time. He bolted up two starts back and didn’t run badly at Fontwell – however that was only 6 days on from his win. He tanked into the race but was flat from two out, so maybe it came too soon. 20 days off here.
The yard in fine form – (7/20,11p last 30 days, +16, 3/10,5p last 14, 68% rivals beaten) and Ben P does well at the course… 8/28, 10p, +31 all runners in last 5 years.
Cremant is a clear danger IF he takes to chasing. He’s tried it twice before and was a bit scratchy but he was entitled to be I suppose. He didn’t look a natural but arrives here on the back of a hurdles win and may leave those previous efforts behind. Still, I’ll go with the chase form this time, but he could win well if jumping. I didn’t like the others for various reasons.
8.50 – Shady Daisy –
Far from a confident poke, given the fav bolted up last time but there’s quite a weight swing here which may make a difference (inc the mares allowance) – it’s never easy winning a bumper under a penalty.
Jamie Snowden’s filly was arguably unlucky on debut but his usually come on bundles anyway – 9/39, 22p, +56 with horses having 2nd career start for him in last 2 years. He also does well here. She could give the fav something to think about, for all I don’t know what the form is worth as yet. Maybe they’ll be fighting it out.
*
That's all for this email,
All the best,
Josh
p.s we still have a few shares left in Give Me A Boom, who we hope will be a proper winter jumps horse in time. If you'd like to join in the fun, click here to find out more >>>
