Good Morning Friend
Any long term readers will remember I once dabbled with an idea called 'Pace Wins The Race' whereby I would attempt to find front runners that may lead all the way. I forget how that went but I am a better punter now (I think) and in any case I do know that the tools at Geegeez Gold have improved- especially information on draw, the historical success of certain running styles over Course+Distance, and the introduction of speed ratings.
There is no excuse not to make this work, over time. With any luck I will improve. Only in the last few days I have noticed a number of flat runners make all. - Tavener (Muss, 6/1) and Corton Lad (Ham,8/1) would be two examples. Without doubt they won as their jockeys were able to set their own fractions and had plenty in the tank when kicking for home.
I will record a video ASAP which brings this idea to life. But in essence I want to try and offer you something of value, for free, on a daily basis, Monday-Friday. There may not be a bet every-day, but that will be the aim. Hopefully you will get something from the write ups also.
These 'test tips' will be in the 'Free Daily Posts' which you can always find from the home page HERE>>>
All daily posts are complete by no later than 10 AM on the day of racing, Monday-Friday. 11 AM at weekends.
Today's first foray back into 'Pace Wins The Race' is below.
No doubt I will suffer the 'curse of the email'- a couple days back I sent you four losers for my Members' Bet of The Day, and of course then on Saturday, no email, I tipped them a 14/1 winner from my stats. Sods Law.
At The Races... I use Geegeez Gold for plenty, as you know, but I believe At The Races have their own take on pace maps etc. I have never looked at them but for those of you interested in this idea, they may be worth checking out.
Onto today...
PACE WINS THE RACE (Test)
I am going to revive this old area of interest, pull my finger out, and attempt to come out in front (over time) by homing in on those runners that look likely to get an easy lead, and with any luck may stay there all the way...
To kick this off I am just going to repeat today's 'bet of the day' from the Members Post, as the final tick in his box was that I think he could get an easy enough lead here, if he wants it. This 'tipping test' is now 8/50, +35 points to 1 point win bets, and I will be doing my best to maintain that 70% ROI! (that could be a hard task)
8.20 Windsor - Cape Discovery - 1 point win - 8/1 (general)
8/1 seems rather big here to my eye. He ticks plenty of boxes. He is 2/5 on the turf and there could be more to come at some point, those two wins at this course, one over CD. He has won at the course, class and distance (well,over 12f) and he is 1lb below his last winning mark. 14 days ago he returned here after a three month break and he led for a way- he then got in a pace battle, led again, before fading. Evidence suggests that he may have done too much on the front end, and in any case may have needed the run to a point. Having looked at the pace I think the lead is his if he wants it, if the oppo adopt usual tactics, which you hope is the case. Of course something else may try and take him on but hopefully he can dictate. He doesn't have to lead and in any case will be in the right spot, no excuses. Something else in here could have more in hand- Hannon's maybe- but at 8/1 I won't be talking myself out of a bet based on fear of the oppo, that isn't the point really. He should be spot on here and provided he doesn't go too quick again (which in any case could be a tactic to help get his mark down!) he should be thereabouts.
Of Interest... The other pace horse of interest looks to be ICE GALLERY in the 4.00 Ayr - he is the only one in here who does like to get on with it. 7/2 is just a bit too short for me. Were he 5s+ I would have made him a bet. He used to lead for his old connections, this being his second run for the yard. Given they move him up in trip i did just wonder whether they may keep hold of him, to ensure he gets home. Or, alternatively, they trust their judgement on his stamina (breeding suggests he should enjoy every yard) and instruct Lee to get on with it, stack them up, and then kick for home. He may come on for his last run at Donny, fitness wise, and ran there as if he was crying out for a go at this trip. My judgement at the top end of the market is rubbish and he may well hack up now, but isn't 'officially' a test tip for Pace Wins The Race, as the price is just on the short side for me. But he should go well
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If you want to track my progress on this front, you know where to head on a daily basis. I wouldn't dive in with wads of real money just yet, but with any luck results will be as such that in a few weeks/months you may have confidence to back them. Of course I may fail spectacularly, but hopefully not.
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FREE FREE FREE...
For those of you not aware, you can register for a free Geegeez Account HERE>>>
Each day you get free access to some of the Geegeez Gold tools and if you are serious about betting on the geegeez/finding your own horses, these are worth using,.
(did I mention this access is Free? No card details required, just a simple sign up form, HERE>>>)
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Have a great day, Josh
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