15.35 Ayr - Daniel Deronda 9/2 - (weak-ish in the market since posting but he doesn't know his price) well he's still unexposed in handicaps for me, especially 8f which he tries for the first time (and shapes as if he'll relish) and I think he's well handicapped still. That's always a useful starting point, not that you need me to flag any more well handicapped flat horses for the notebook! But yes, he will be winning more handicaps at some point. I don't think this is a great race and he drops down in class here, and up in trip - both moves could do the trick. He hacked up four starts back at Leicester over 7f, outpaced out the back but coming with a withering run down the centre and well on top come the line off 6lb lower. I'm not sure they went quick enough NTO and Doncaster was a no show. His trainer blamed the super fast ground there, this is officially Good to Firm but I'm not sure Ayr ever gets rattling quick and i'll trust connections, they'd pull him out if deemed unsuitable. LTO was a decent run also over 7f at Thirsk, drawn wide, taken back to the inside then switched out up the middle, he rattled home there. The winner was unexposed, coming in on the back of a win, and better positioned. The horse behind him in 3rd won his next start as has the 7th, a few others have placed also. It was a deeper race than this for sure. 

I thought 9/2 looked more than fair given his profile/form and that of the opposition. He may be able to hold a more prominent position over this trip also and looks a straight forward sort who tries for you.

16.10 Ayr - Golden Melody 6/1- i'm not sure if the Easterby's have tried to put everyone away with jockey bookings here, Allan on Bollin M helping keep this one's price bigger - or maybe not, and the aforementioned is thought by connections to have a better chance. Jason Hart has ridden winners for them before and these owners from memory, rides this place well and is a top jockey, so I won't over think that at 6s. She's another unexposed handicapper who will leave behind a mark of 72 at some point I think. She won back to back in early August, races that have produced 5 subsequent winners including the horse she just beat at Beverley hacking up on his next two starts, the latter of which he posted an RPR 81 from a mark of 69 - she was beating a well handicapped horse that day. Things haven't gone right since, hence why she's been put in at 6s - if she was here on the back of that Bev win she'd have been put in at 5/2, 3s. I think there are valid excuses. York was a 12 runner Class 2, beaten 3 1/4 lengths, Sandown she was eased when not getting a clear run and LTO at Muss was a 4 runner dawdle, which I'm not sure suited. That was a class 3 also, now dropping into this C4 fillies handicap.

She also makes a quick return here, 4 days later, and I've flagged Tim's quick returners before, usually when David is on (a tick for Bollin M I suppose also) But with 3YOs / handicaps / Ayr / 10< days, he's 3/10, 6p +7. 

There is more to come and I thought she'd be better handicapped than her stablemate. She is unproven over the distance, but unexposed over it, trying it once in that York race. She's bred to get 10f, plenty of relatives did, and it could be the reason for unlocking more. At 6s more than happy to have an interest nibble to find out. She's usually more patiently ridden but that's not Jason's usual style and maybe over this trip she can hold a position more easily further forward, and they may well try and switch things up anyway. I did think Alyara was the main danger, and that Golden looked more interesting than Celtic Express who is also a qualifier above. We shall soon find out if I've got that right.

17.50 Ayr - Eclipse De Luna 4/1- probably the one I'm most confident on, for all that Nakeeta won this race last year and while he doesn't win that often, he's consistent and maybe this has been the plan - it could well be between the two, but it may not be the strongest run and the selection could be better placed when the tempo increases. He's another 3YO who's still unexposed in handicaps and well again I think room in this mark of 70. It's his runs at Haydock (beaten 2 2/4 lengths, Miramichi won there, and he's since won twice more) and more so York which makes me think there's more to come at some point. He chased home Chalk Stream in the latter who's since won twice more, including an Ascot C2 LTO and looks smart enough for Her Majesty. He then won easily at Catterick, not beating much mind but an MJ horse got loose on the front and he cut him down quickly enough and was only pushed out off just 2lb lower than today, 68, posting an RPR 76. 

LTO can just be ignored and it's that run which is why he was put in at 4s here, rather than 2s in my opinion. I think it can just be ignored. It was his first run right-handed and I think he hated it, as well as the track. He hung to the far side, action was choppy on that undulating/cambered track/climb to the line, and he just looked to hate every minute up the straight. Given 29 days to refresh and now dropped into a weak enough C5 from that C4, I really do think he's the one they all have to beat. He should track Euro Implosion here from his low draw and be in the perfect place to strike up the straight, getting the run on Nakeeta who's out wide, may be held up further back but will be running on.

One more... away from Ayr...

15.50 Yarmouth - Crystal Starlet 9/2 - I should stop with those three above really and this is a race packed with unexposed types, and as such probably one to watch (although I have had a small nibble on this one for interest). You can give chances to Jasmine Joy, Future, Princess Nadia and indeed a couple of the others, Summertime a LTO winner. 

However, Stoute and Moore team up again here and I should have taken the hint when Ryan bothered to head over to Yarmouth for the listed race yesterday. I suspect if Stoute didn't want him here he may well have had a lie in.

Although, he does have 6 rides on the card, including Liberated Lady in the 5pm for Hugo Palmer (3/7,6p for him) and I only mention her as she was a NR yesterday when Buick was jocked up - maybe they were waiting for the ground to dry out although I'm not sure 3s looks generous but that's an aside)

Back to Crystal Starlet who looks a classic Stoute project, slowly slowly, getting better with experience. X3 runs in novice races over 10f, including 2L behind Future two starts back. LTO she was outpaced but stayed on in 3rd, beaten by two geldings who've both run well since. The winner, Candleford, chased home Chalk Stream in that Ascot C2, before being DQ for jockey weighing in light. The second, Tall Order, won a Haydock novice on his next start comfortably enough. The 5th bolted up in a C5 handicap on his next start for Palmer, off 66. So, some substance there making me think 72 is surely workable at some point.

Now she steps up 2f on handicap debut (Stoute 16/84, 36p with handicap debutants last 2 years, with an impact value of 2.00, so twice as many winners with such types as the training ranks as a whole). Then there's her breeding of course, out of Frankel/Crystal Zvexda (Dubawi), her dam a half sister to Crystal Ocean, who Stoute knows rather well! He wasn't bad. There's plenty of stamina on the dam side and Frankels stay well.

I just thought we could see a different animal here today in conditions. We shall see, maybe she's an even longer term project or just not very good, but she must be so much better than 72.

*

Do with that lot as you please. I did spend ages looking at 'Just Hiss' in the 5.10 Ponty which I thought looked very winnable, but then a NR, I assume due to ground. He is so well handicapped now, has shown promise this season and while he doesn't win too often, I suspect Tim will find something weak for him in the coming days and he's one to keep an eye on - he needs a race full of exposed and/or moderate types but could win hands and heels when it clicks again.

Hopefully a few of those above run better than yesterday's lot, but it's a tough game at the best of times and you have to keep chipping away. Or it was the betting gods retaliating after flagging an 8/1 winner the day before. (or hinting I should now just stick to jumps!). 

I'll keep my fingers crossed for better. 

Best of luck, 

Josh 

p.s you can find my 'jumps horses to follow' post HERE>>>