I’ve highlighted a few handicap chasers that it may be worth keeping an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. I enjoy pulling posts like this together and will endeavour to write them more regularly. 

I’ve dived into my HorseRaceBase account and their ‘hot & cold’ races tool, as my starting point.

My aim has been to find chasers who I think have more wins in them, who may still be progressive and well handicapped. They all have recent enough runs in races that have worked out well, producing subsequent winners. This helps give substance to the form, their ability and whether there could be more to come from their mark.

As always with everything I do on this blog and with my emails, my purpose is to add to your enjoyment of this great sport. 

As of 09.06... To the wet sodden turf at Sandown I go first, which will hopefully dry out a bit as the day goes on...

... where I was going to mention Madame Tantzy, who's just been pulled out! Maybe they think the ground will be too soft but I thought she looked big given her LTO win, which was comfortable enough come the line. One for the notebook as Eve should find something else for her, a well run/stiff 8f could be ideal. She's not the easiest but still well handicapped for me.

2.15 Brunnera - 8/1

Could be worth pondering at an EW price. One for Palmer/Steward who are now 5/15 in the last year when teaming up. Palmer does well at Yarmouth more generally but has a decent record with his 3 year olds, 12/43, 20p, +43 in the last 5 years, 5/15,7p +18 in the last two. He's 5/17, 9p with all runners here in the last year (he's got one in the 13.40, and another 3YO, under Buick, in the last, who's being nibbled at around 7/2)

I suppose it's hard to get a grip on this one's form, but she bolted up 2 starts back, only a 3 runner race but a 100 RPR, from what was a mark of 86. Interesting that Palmer pitched her straight into a Listed race at York, over 12f, where fading late. It was still a career best RPR, 101. Dropped back to 10f here, she can race handily and could run a big race, in what looks an open enough race on paper. They're all unexposed though and big yards represented.

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3.50 - Typical Man - 9/2

I've used 'William Buick' as a 'way in' here, finding it interesting that he's not at Sandown on what's a decent card, with a few horses he's ridden previously. The fact Appleby has one in the 1.40 here may be the reason why but he still hasn't given up the fight for the jockey title and his agent will have been desperate to get him on a few winners today. No shock he's on a few shorties with five rides on the card. He could well have 2/3 winners here today, just a case of picking the right ones!

I've homed in on the Ian Williams horse at 9/2. There's no doubt this horse has more wins in him, given his demolition job four starts back at Doncaster over 7f in soft. Cut in the ground is important to him. He found Windsor's 8f on good happening a shade too quickly for him but still moved like a well handicapped horse, not knocked around. He ran well at Newbury, bumping into one who won again and may have been favoured by racing up the nearside, before he ran 74 days ago at Sandown, hating the headgear apparently, falling out the stalls, never travelling. To his credit he kept going, in a race which has thrown out 5 subsequent winners and counting. That was a C3 also, back into a weak C5 here.

He's had a break, I assume for an autumn campaign on soft. Maybe he's here for a day out but Buick's been booked and he rode him two starts back. He's done well at the track all rides last two years, 12/58, 24p, +33 SP. 2/8,6p in 8f handicaps (inc 1/1 for Ian), 4/12,8p all rides over 8f, +42 SP. (a ride over 8f in the 3.20 also)

This is an atrocious race, the first three in the weights the only ones with wins on turf. Horses #4 down in the racecard have one win between them I think, Eyes (on the sand, but has placed x3 on turf). This looks much weaker than all four of Typical Man's recent runs. I think he will leave behind a mark of 72 at some point in the coming weeks, hopefully today, but if not, it won't be long. There was lots to like about his Donny win and he's unexposed over 8f, a trip he shapes as if he'll relish.

This horse will try to make all here and I thought this stiff 20f may be ideal. I'm not sure much else will pressure him on the front end and he's had a break since beating beaten at MR. He had been busy/a few hard races before then, which may have caught up with him. His facile win at Market Rasen in April (when thumping Shetland Bus) was after 74 days off. 

I still think there's room in this mark and he ran a screamer at Aintree in May finishing a close 3rd, a decent C2, where he had Shetland Bus and Ask Paddington behind him. 7 subsequent winners have come out of that, inc Shetland winning x3, the second has run well twice since also. Shetland is 12lb higher than for that day and IF they both ran their races again, I wasn't sure why he overturns it - he does have assured fitness and we do know he's in form I suppose. Still, this may well have been the plan and I think this climb to the line will suit, as he stays further. The horse likes decent ground so they probably think they've 6/7 weeks in which to strike before being put away for the winter, or they need to get his mark down in soft.

Of some stats interest... Walford/Hamilton have done well in all 'hurdles' races in the last two years, 12/61, 26p, +144 SP... 7/34, 15p, +45 in handicaps. Hopefully they can add to it with this one. IF he's fit and this has been the plan, and he runs his race (first time here, has travelled 140 miles) I struggled to see him out of the top 3 in what doesn't look the strongest of C2s. Hopefully he's the one to catch over the last and he just doesn't come back to them.

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That's all for today, best of luck with any bets as always,

Josh 

p.s don't forget my new free 'horses to follow' post, HERE >>>