Hello Friend
One last hurrah, for this week at least! I'll give your inbox a rest for a few days and I'm not sure my members will appreciate it if I keep sending out their content.
But i'm feeling in a good mood and it makes a pleasant change for me to send you in the direction of a few horses who've been running well!
Usually when I email out a fancy or a flagged horse/stat, they run like a drain. Thankfully 1500 of you or so keep on reading these emails though and it's always appreciated. I hope you've enjoyed the last couple of days.
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Today's Flat Pointers
I’m not sure i’ve ever enjoyed looking at flat races/handicaps as much as I have in the last few days, I do enjoy puzzle solving and providing you with something useful to ponder to help find your own winners.
It’s some buzz when you know you’ve helped a fellow racing fan have a good day out at the races and for those of you sat at home. Five winners across the x3 efforts at Brighton, Pontefract (no winners from three picks, sorry Chris!) and Doncaster, including two agonising seconds at 6s and 12s.
Colin has just emailed in...
"Thanks for the Doncaster tips yesterday. Helped me win on the Placepot. Cheers!"
That paid 179/1 I think and just what I like to hear... take a pinch of my musings, add a dash of your own thinking/application, pick some of mine, some of yours, and wallop, the placepot lands which is always a fun way to enjoy a card for little outlay.
That's what its all about, having some fun, that buzz of backing a winner, picking your own winners (sometimes using my content, helping save time/add focus) and just enjoying the greatest of sports.
Even if you haven't backed any of the winners, hopefully you've enjoyed reading through.
And with that said, there's one final instalment this week to muse over below.
I am definitely due a blank on highlighted horses soon, but there is some fascinating stattage below which even if it doesn’t pay off today, will do soon, so get the notebooks out 🙂
First up, to Thirsk…
2.10 – Nodsasgoodasawink 9/1 EW …
As i’ve just mused on Twitter What’s happened at the Linda Perratt yard??! New gallops, yard, staff, owners, someone else training? New feed regime, new horses? They’ve been sick for years? Apparently a renewed focus on more unexposed horses… 2/7,5p last 14 days, 81% rivals beaten, 2/86,9p in 351 days before that, 4/168,20p last 2 years before this run. A purple patch! She has this one today and x6 at Ayr in the next two days, surely some more winners to be found as that does look like a genuine resurgence. This horse… third run for the yard having got her from Mick Channon, who isn’t having a great season as yet, certainly not the last month, and maybe some issues there.
Possibly a shame 4 places not up for grabs here but she’s ever so consistent , 1/8,5p in handicap, 1/6, 4p in 6f handicaps. She was outpaced over 5f 11 days ago, this return to 6f should help and that Lingfield run four starts back suggest any soft in the going should be ok. Only her and Naughty Ana have placed on soft, if more rain falls. Some cut in it already. She is usually patiently ridden which tempers some enthusiasm, I don’t like hold up horses at the best of times, and it is a quite awful race!! Having said that, she’s only one of three horses to have ever won a race and only one of two to have won on turf! (Odd Socks Havana the other) Whatever she does here, 9s does look way overpriced and i’ve had beer money EW on for interest. To Brighton… ah Brighton… 1.50 – Gherkin- 3/1 – if I was doing a ‘through the card’ i’d readjust my value eyes and put this one forward. He is a CD winner and the yard are going well, 1/5,3p last 14 days. I think I put this one up for Doug when he went to Chepstow the other week, I was rather confident of a big run but he was outpaced over that 5f, and at a higher class – it all just happened a bit too quickly in the final 2f. He’s back into a C6 here and back over 6f – when looking for why a horse should improve on a last run, especially if not very good, you have to ask ‘what are they doing differently, and will said changes inspire a better performance’ – obviously you need to make an assessment of whether they’re good enough to compete, are handicapped to do so, and will handle conditions etc. He ticks all those boxes for me and should go very close here if repeating his Brighton best. (it’s the only place he’s won, 1/1) He won’t have minded the rain either I don’t think. I did want to flag him also for the purposes of highlighting Rossa Ryan…He rides for the first time and it could be argued he’s the best jockey to have ridden him recently. He rids this place well, - 14/67, 23p, +18 SP in the last 5 years
- 13/55, 20p +29 in handicaps
- Of those, 9/36, 14p +28 in class 6
He does have five rides on the card today, I haven’t looked at them all in depth, but I like this one, in a weak race. Maybe he will have the odd other winner somewhere, but he can clearly get them balanced around here and has a good clock in his head. * 3.00 – Tin Hat – 14/1-11/1, EW? (4 places Sky, PP, Betfair, if you’re so lucky to get more than 10p on with some of those!) Has this been the greatest Brighton handicap plot job ever known? Maybe, maybe not… firstly some stats, useful to absorb if/when this one does sod all 🙂 Eve Johnson Houghton – she does like Brighton winners… - 17/84, 35p +15 SP in handicaps here last 5 years
- 5/18, 8p +14 when class 4
- 4/15, 7p +14 when aged 5.
The horse… Tin Hat… Well he won this race way back in August 2019 off this very mark, ridding by Georgia D, who gets on well with him. This is the first time since that month that he’s run over 6f at Brighton, in a Class 4. (0/9 above this class). He’s 2/4,3p at the track and it’s the scene of his only wins on turf. He’s 1/4,2p in August, the only month he’s won on turf. He found the C3 hot enough LTO but was out the back the whole way, a tad outpaced, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this had been the plan. Surely it has been. That was his first run in 95 days also.
They’ve got his mark down from a high of 84 last July 2020, the fact it’s only dropped 5lb is some testament to his consistency, connections probably hoping he’d tail himself off some more. Anyway, that looked a tasty price for an interest EW nibble.
There’s an unexposed Haggas horse at the top, first run here and I can hope he’s outpaced over this 6f. The rest look a so so bunch and he’s as good as chance as any, provided the fav doesn’t bolt up, which is possible.
(someone I respect with their flat handicappers likes Minhaaj EW at 16s or so, maybe we will battle it out!) If there’s a deluge and this is on the softer side of good, that would pose a question/unknown, and be a ready excuse for a poor effort. It could be he’s just out of sorts or struggles to win generally of course, not one to go mad on, and that’s true of the whole card here, lots of low grade stuff. Still, plenty of method and logical thinking, if nothing else, for all 80% + of the time that amounts to little, but it’s all about the long term 🙂 It does look a plan, will the horse execute it. Finally…I was digging into the 4.10 and found an interesting Brighton stat for Tony Carroll… with his Brighton handicappers returning within 10 days of their last start, in the last five years here he’s… - 12/35, 23p, 34% sr, +14 SP
- 7/18, 11p when Class 6
- 4/8, 6p when aged 3
He has four such runners today returning within 10 days… - Paymaster (aged 3, C6) (15.35) 16/1
- Hooves Like Jagger (aged 3, C6) (16.10) 5/2
- River Wharf (aged 3) (16.40) 13/2
- Top Boy (C6) (17.10) 7/2
Having had a quick flick through I wouldn’t be shocked if they all ran some sort of race, my own preference, in order… Hooves, Top, River and Paymaster. Maybe. All of those races have some well fancied shorties in mind, but it’s Brighton, and funny things can happen here!
Hopefully they don’t get a deluge, they had 10mm last night, good ground, if it goes soft that will pose question for many. I haven’t looked as in depth at those four as I have the three others above, i’ll leave that to you! Although ‘think less, do more’ can be an ok strategy at times.
Anyway, as always something to digest, use, abuse, or ignore as you see fit 🙂 All good fun, best of luck if you go with any of those and with any other bets today as always.
Have a great weekend and I'll be in touch next week at some point,
All the best,
Josh |
