Good Morning Friend

Well that was a fun trip to the seaside yesterday... 2nd (nose, agony!), Won (17/2<6s), Won (2s), UP, UP, 2nd, 3rd, Won (3s). Solid. Pontefract not so good although the unexpected deluge decimated the card, and 11/1>4s 2nd the best of the three, the other two may still be running! 

Although the first one was a maiden and both of Fahey's ran well to a point and I wouldn't be surprised if they did something on their next couple of starts, back on a sounder surface. Hamilton's mount (Scarlet Dancer) cruised around but couldn't pick up in the slop/drained his fitness & stamina in the final furlong. 

Pat was the member who requested the Brighton musings and he appeared to have a decent day which is what it's all about... 

Hopefully you enjoyed the read if nothing else.  An element of my approach has always been part 'magazine' subscription (whether members club, this email list etc) and you may have picked up the odd snippet on how I think about a race, horses, trainers, jockeys, trainer/jockey combos... and pace... knowing who may get an easy lead, and who may slot in where, is vital in this game - I wouldn't have had the 2/1 and 3/1 winners without pace maps, but the prospect of their jockeys dictating made those prices not too bad, especially as 4/5 runner races. You're not going to find 8s shots in those very often. 

There were a few stats there to note down also. 

We move on, a new day awaits. 

And in truth I'm dreading what follows! It can't go as well as yesterday, surely. 

One of my members, Richard W (who also had shares in Really Super, top fella) is off to Doncaster this evening, where I think he's a life member if memory serves me right, his local track. 

The card is a right old puzzle - all 12 runner handicaps. As challenging a card as you'll find. (i'm getting that in early!) 

There's also added extra caution here today, there is rain around, who knows how much may fall, if any. A 60-80% chance of a deluge which could turn heavy, so who knows what the ground could be come this evening's fixture. Proper fast ground horses will be hoping they miss it.

So, it could be good, it could be proper soft come the latter races. That always spells danger and some educated guessing required - well, more so, just guessing! 

Let’s crack on, part ‘through the card’ part ‘flat pointers’ given I try to flag some stats /pace of interest and not just list horses…

There are 4 places available in most of these races with a fair few bookies so always EW options, which may well be wise. 

17.42 – Tenaya Canyon – 7/1 – Ed Walker’s in form here, 6/25, 8p in the last 14 days, 58% rivals beaten. He’s done well at the course in the last year also, 5/22, 8p and Saffie has done well for him so far, 3/12,5p together. (although it’s the Racing League so there will be some ‘odd’ jockey bookings given the teams etc) The horse is in form with a progressive profile, career best RPR LTO over the CD, a solid enough win the time before that. She’s is up in class, but a lightly raced 3YO, for all any soft ground would be an unknown. She ran well with some cut as a novice and plenty of her dad’s offspring handle soft. A prominent racer who could outrun her odds here and looked shade overpriced to me.

18.13 – I Am A Dreamer – 12/1 – he may be interesting at a decent price here, in 1st time CP which may have a positive impact. He used to wear a visor when with MJ and that worked well the first few times it was worn. Having said that he’s enough efforts this season to suggest he would be thereabouts at his best, esp three starts back when not beaten far by Commanche Falls, who’s since won The Stewards Cup. The Thirsk and Hamilton runs not too bad either. His last two wins have come off 82 so he is on ‘his’ mark and will pop up at some point for Midgley. This is very ‘micro’ but he is 5/20,10p with his 5YOs handicappers at Donny, +24 SP. 2/7,4p when over 6f, 3/7,5p in Class 3, all in the last 5 years. The horse also won’t mind how much rain falls and he does stay 7f, just in case this turns into a slog, for all Donny drains ok and never gets horrendous.

18.48 – Foxtrot Sizzler 5/1 – I’ll side with this one to bring up his hat-trick. The pace angle has lured me in as on paper he’s the only out and out front runner and has made all the last twice. JG may get to do her own thing on the front end here. His last two wins have been on soft and good to firm, just the sort of profile you want given the forecast. His last two races are working out well also, x5 winners between them including Mr Tyrrell winning his next two, who he beat LTO. Menuisier is in fine form, 5/18 last 30, 3/10 last 14 and his horses can tend to keep improving as he does take his time with them. Jose Gordon has done ok on his also, 2/9,3p. He should give this a good go from the front in a race where plenty have questions on recent evidence. There are a 5th 4 places with many bookies and I would be mildly surprised if he doesn’t place at least, for all it’s his first run here.

19.20 – Tahitian Prince 10/1 – i’m what you could call ‘baffled’ as to why this one is 9/1, answers on a postcard, any ideas?? I suppose he’s yet to race on anything with ‘soft’ in the going and if it really rains, he could be in trouble. However, he’s won his last two at Kempton, and four starts back won a 18 runner 7f handicap here, having fluffed the start and coming from the back. 15 subsequent winners have come out of that race and as per his last two runs, 8f looks fine. That was a career best RPR LTO, 90, it’s only the 10th run of his life (3/10,5p, decent record) and 5th on turf. He’s still improving. He’s a strong travelling horse who Sean has been both patient with and more aggressive – there’s very little pace on paper in this and it may well pay to be handy enough. I must have missed something, as 10s is leaving me puzzled. Maybe the numerous 3YOs and the weight they’re getting is keeping his price big.

I will mention ‘Air To Air’ at 10/3 or so. Do I think that’s value? Maybe not, not when comparing to yesterday’s winner of the last at Brighton, 3s in a 4 runner race, hacking up. 12 runners here in what looks a deep enough race, with loads of other 3 year olds of which he is one. But with ‘winners eyes’ rather than ‘value eyes’ I wouldn’t put you off him as such, ultra progressive before his run at Royal Ascot, hacking up over this CD and versatile ground wise. His Ascot run was decent enough, drawn the wrong side, high dominating. Three of the horses his side, two in front of him, one behind, have all won since. A slight freshen up, Nicola has won on him, down in class here. I can see why he’s fav.

19.53 – Khagan 9/1 – this looks the trickiest of the races so far but having now said that, this one will no doubt be my only winner on the card! Although at 9s, it wouldn’t be too bad. There’s something about this ex French raider and I do wonder if this has been a plan, given the league/prize money. These races will have been targets for many of these horses mind, rather than an afterthought/just fitting into a horse’s programme. He’s a 12f winner in France in soft and shouldn’t mind the rain. However, that was a maiden and they no doubt went a walk>sprint, as they do over there. Having watched the last two runs I’m not sure he stays 12f and this drop to 10 may be ideal. Three starts back in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar he led the field 1.5f from home, before tiring, beaten 4l. That C2 race turned out to be deep for the track, with 9 subsequent winners, plenty at C2 level. Solid form. That was also his second run of the season, having run at York after 500+ days off. He may well have still needed it. O’Meara’s are going better now also off the top of my head. He led deep into that Chester race LTO also, and there’s not much pace on paper at all in this. He should now be used to the tempo over here. Danny may try and lead but in any case will sit handy. Trainer/jockey do ok in Donny handicaps, 8/55, 24p +15 in last 5 years, 2/8,4p in C3s. The horse has dropped 11lb since coming to the UK and David will win something half decent with him one day no doubt, maybe starting here!

I will mention Pitchers Point 8s for Johnny G and Frankie – he is in the ‘could be anything’ category, including ‘could be average or could just be an AW horse’ but he’s lightly raced, has had another break, may well have matured, and his only win was under The Italian. The yard are in form and do well here. His only run on turf was naff, I don’t know if softer ground is what he wants or not but in a race with a fair few more exposed handicappers, he could be interesting for a mild interest, for all the market may well guide. Frankie will have him up on the pace also I suspect, if here to run his race.

20.25 – Amir Kabir – 11/2 – this 4YO looks interesting enough,. 2/10,6p in all handicaps and still unexposed over the trip, for all I suppose he still technically has stamina to prove, if winning form over a distance, at a good pace, is your barometer. However over 12f two starts back he was beaten 1/2 a length so I’ll edge on the side of him staying. That run was also in soft and it could be he’s best with cut in the ground. He has course experience, big field experience, for all he needs to leave LTO behind but maybe the ground was too quick. Charlton’s in form, 11/40, 20p last 30 days, 3/16, 7p last 14, and he’s building up a good partnership with Trevor Whelan, 5/16,7p in the last year, 2/5 in the last 14. He’s riding with confidence also. He should sit in a prominent enough position also. A few of his races have worked out well enough for me to think he can mix it here today.

So, a competitive looking day, 12 runner handicaps, everything/most of them, there to run their race and unpredictable weather!! A recipe for a bloodbath, but with any luck one or two winners above which at the odds would make for a very good day. Fingers firmly crossed! But you have been warned 🙂

Josh