I've focussed on the two class 2 handicap chases I played in and i've tried to say something useful for the future.
There's another reminder of how important pace/race position can be in chases, thoughts on who may be worth following, which horses are now below last winning marks and I talk over the race replays.
Below you can find a handful of thoughts from last week - I'm trying to add something of interest to read/absorb in the daily posts, especially for those who like stats angles etc - and just jot down the odd pointer that catches my eyes.
From last week's posts...
Demachine looks worth keeping on the right side of, it will be interesting how high he can climb the handicapping ranks and whether he's got a decent staying pot in him over the next couple of seasons. A Warwick Classic Chase or Welsh National type horse in the making maybe.
It may well have been better to just back all her handicap chasers for a while (those with 0-3 handicap runs have always been the place to focus)…
8/24, 9p with all chase runners so far in 2020, 7 different horses winning.
I think they’re back in rude health.
She had quite the lull with her chasers for a couple of years pre 2020. Again, maybe the cyclical nature of handicapping – ageing chasers, caught in the grip, regressing – new blood taking time to source, run and mature, ready for fences. Still, good to see them go well as they do know what they’re doing. Her brother, Tom Lee, helps place them also, and Richard is no doubt still imparting advice. They tend to jump and gallop and it will be interesting if more unexposed chasers appear in the next few weeks, having had quiet times in maiden hurdles etc. They could all be worth keeping an eye on.
*
These were some thoughts pre that 1.50 Uttoxeter last Thursday, which could be a chase worth keeping an eye on given the number of runners, yards represented and lightly raced chase profiles. I'd be surprised if a few winners didn't come out of it.
Killer Clown hit a Lavelle angle of mine, but sadly his jockey was knocked out the saddle early on. He didn't have much of a race at all, for all that he was keen enough through the early stages. I'd be shocked if he isn't winning chases in time though, but there's another Lavelle angle worth keeping an eye on...
Killer Clown... the purpose of these occasional segments isn’t to sway you either way as such, but to put some ‘meat on the bones’ esp if you use any of the content as a ‘way in’, while also offering the odd snippet which may be useful today, but moving forwards… notebooks at the ready again 🙂 Or just something of interest to read!
This is a Novice handicap chase and with 18 runners at that! Plenty of educated guessing but trainer stats/methods can be useful…
since the start of 2015… Emma Lavelle, in…
Novice Handicap Chases / Horse had 0 chase runs (under rules)
26 bets / 9 wins / 12p / 35% sr / +25 SP / +30 BFSP / AE 1.84
They’re decent. They include a winner at Uttox and those with 0 runs this season… 5/15, 8p, +13. So, the evidence suggests they try to get these types fit first time up – it makes sense you’d want them to be sharp on first run over fences, to reduce risk of accidents/tired errors late on.
Emma’s overall record with ‘handicap debutants’ is solid in the last 5 years, the win/place % remaining consistent in that time… 14/59, 23p, +24.
The horse... well just to note he ran in one PtP and he hacked up in that. Pres was in 3rd that day, and while such form may not amount to much, he’s now a 120s chaser, having won at Fontwell on his seasonal return a few days back. It may be significant that Ben Jones is here riding here. The horse has had a wind op. The market may well guide, we shall see.
Killer Clown looks like he will win races/chases. I should also note that he’s makes Paul Ferguson’s ‘Jumpers To Follow’ book, when touring the yards – that is significant, given I think he visits most yards when pulling it together, and does talk to connections – Killer Clown is one of 6 horses mentioned for this yard, which makes me think they like him/excited for the season ahead. Time will tell. In any case, that novice hncp chase ‘micro’ angle above may be worth keeping an eye on moving forward.
*
Posted on the 15th Oct...
For those of you who make be keeping a notebook of various musings/angles…
After Nigel Hawkes winner at Wetherby (always after!) I had a look at his record with... Juveniles… in the last 365 days…
Hawke + Noonan + National Hunt + Aged 3 = now 8/16,8p, +33 SP.
May be worth noting, if we haven’t missed the boat!
Dan Skelton... some talk after his Shan Blue hacked up at Wetherby, and hopefully for connections he will go very high in the chasing game. Given the power of the yard – certainly numbers wise- you’d have to think his time will come at the top table. When that is, we shall see. Maybe this season, and with this horse.
I say that having looked at his record with chasers, in Grade 1/2/3 races (all, inc handicaps)… since the start of 2018 he’s 1/78, 16p, AE 0.13, performing 87% below market expectation.
That may be some indication of how tough those races are to win, how hard it is to get those horses, and indeed to get them in tip top condition for a big chase.
As a comparison, his old mentor, Paul Nicholls is 26/176, 60 places in the same period, AE 0.91. Of course Dan is at the early stages of his career and you’d think his star is destined to shine. Still, room for improvement there, including the buying/sourcing of said horses maybe. Then again, it’s hard work competing against Mullins (75 G1/2/3 chase winners since start 2018), Elliot (39), Nicholls (26), Henry De Bromhead (23), Nikcy Henderson (23) and Colin Tizzard (19), who occupy the top 6 slots. The other two with 10 or more are Noel Meade (12) and Jessie Harrington (10).
*
A trainer angle/idea to absorb/muse over…
David Dennis quit training this year, after a relatively quiet time… 14/209 since start of 2019.
Adam Norman informs me that he’s now assistant trainer to Tom Symonds. Which is interesting. Arguably both have struggled to a point, and the former certainly hasn’t hit the heights having shown earlier promise. Whether together they can improve things, time will tell. Maybe the change of scenery/routine will do something for the horses and indeed David. I don’t know how many have moved with him to Tom’s but possibly most of them.
Before Innisfree Lad won the 3.10 Hunt (arguably lucky to do so) ALL horses who were having their first start for a new trainer, having been trained by David Dennis on their last start, were… 10/46, 19p, +68 BFSP
Whether those running for Symonds are worthy of more caution, I don’t know. But said horses may bounce back. Any running for other trainers may be worth keeping an eye on, as they could show improvement. Dennis may have had illness issues, although maybe he just wasn’t that good, rarely breaking above 8% win sr, and/or never got decent horses in the yard.
Anyway, use that how you please
*
All the best,
Josh
