Hello Friend

'Through the Cards' 

A couple of my members, Pat and Chris are off to the races today and I'm always happy to take requests for 'through the cards', which I put up within the daily posts. Something interesting to read that with any luck will add to their day out. 

I haven't done too badly this season with such efforts. There has been one complete blank which I rushed (Geoff hasn't spoken to me since!) but usually there's 2-3 winners highlighted. I'm yet to land on more than three but i'd bite your hand off for x3 winners every time! Harry S has been my lucky charm, x3 winners at both Aintree and Haydock on his last two visits and he's off to Notts next Tuesday, so maybe i'll bring up the hat-trick of hat-tricks! (he's got his request in early)  

Of course there's plenty of caveats, the time I've spent on these is what you'd apply to 1 or 2 races if doing them proper justice/proper 'tips', but sometimes its best not to over-think things. There's always some method to my madness. 

However, even if they all fall out the back of the TV (likely now, given the 'curse of the email') there's always a stat or two to absorb, usually track related, that will be useful moving forwards. 

Have a read though, ignore, or use in any way you please. Some of my members throw fun £1 bets around, the odd forecast, or very small change L15/31, all good fun with the aim of brightening up a weekday afternoon at the races. 

With all that said, let's crack on. (prices correct when posted on the blog) 

Brighton ‘through the card’

Moderate stuff today, low grade, inconsistent animals, all the caveats! 🙂

1.52 – Boom The Groom 6/1 – i think i’d go with the current outsider of the party here at 6s or so. He doesn’t win very often these days but he’s finished 2nd twice over this CD on his last two runs here (penultimate run and four starts back) and those efforts would entitle him to be bang there. He ran in a C3 LTO and over 6f, which he doesn’t fully stay, but ran well enough for a long way. He is the only out and out front runner in the race also and Ray should be able to dictate. He rides this place well enough, 4/17,6p +10 in the last year, and when teaming up with Tony C on all rides in the last year, 5/22,8p +16 SP . It’s the first time he’s ever ridden him and maybe he can have a positive affect. It’s a trappy race where you could give a chance to all of them at their best but he’d do for me, looking a shade overpriced and without wanting to steam into any of the ‘shorties’.

2.25 – Pour La Victoire – 17/2, EW – hmm, a classified stakes for 0-50 horses, all running of the same weight, 3YOs with an allowance, as moderate as a race as you’ll find- a few of these have yet to win a race, those that have don’t win very often at all. I’m not sure who’s steaming into Jaffa at 7/4, braver than I am and most of his better form is on a softer surface, now a 15 race maiden. It is that sort of race! Anyway, anyone with geegeez ‘instant expert’ may not be surprised for why the old boy is a pick at his odds, and again Ray rides for the first time. The horse is 10/35, 20p around here which is quite some record. It could be he’s fully on the downgrade now but I’m sure he will pop up again here one day. He can need a strong pace these days which i’m not sure he will get here, who knows. A repeat of his run here in May would put him bang there against these. A quite atrocious race but maybe it’s his time again.

3.00 – Junoesque – 2/1 – value is in the eye of the beholder and i’m not sure if 2s is big or not here but I don’t want to oppose the x5 course winner who’s in the form of her life at the moment. She will try and make all, or sit second behind Productive for a time (he’s now 0/15 in career) before hopefully pressing on. She’s won of marks in the 60s before and this is a weak race. She sets the clear standard and if runs up to her best I think will be tough to beat. When you go racing, ‘winners’ are sometimes more important than long term ‘value’, that doesn’t mean wading into a jolly in a C6 Brighton handicap necessarily but she’s as solid as you’ll get around here on paper anyway. One to chuck in multiples or placepots etc, poor sod.

3.35 – Esspeegee 7/4 – much the same comments apply as to the one above, and maybe this is the ‘shorty double’ on the card. He looks the one to beat here and maybe even more bombproof (on paper!) than Juno above. A repeat of LTO should be enough against this motley crew, front two miles clear there, bumping into one who won on his next start. He’s 4/6,5p at Brighton and J Parr is going well, 4/13, 7p +28 SP in the last 14 days. Jane, as per yesterday’s notes (typically a blank for Dascombe, it had to be!) is riding well also. The rest are a so so bunch, Seagulls is 0/10 in career, Channon is 0/36 last 14 days, 2/81 in the last 30. Silent Partner 0/6 in career but has placed and gets 1st time blinkers, so you never know. Temur is 0/11,0p on turf but has won on the AW, Teemlucky 0/15,2p in career. 7/4 could look quite good here, famous last words. It’s either playing him, throwing him in a double, or leaving the race – as it’s hard to make a case for any of the others

4.10 – Larado 12/1, Urban War 12/1… i’ve a headache looking through this race and I may well be nowhere near the winner here. Larado makes his first start for Mick A, over from Ireland, and the market may or may not guide – I do hope Ray Dawson has a good day! (we know what happens now) Mick improves plenty of horses into his yard for all the market has caught up with them when running for him first time up, but 41/255, 85p in the last 5 years. A repeat of his Leop and Cork runs a few starts back would put him bang there against this lot I think, decent efforts, in and around a few subsequent winners. The last twice hasn’t gone to plan but over 7f may have been sharp enough for him, certainly at Limerick, his run LTO not the best. Still, 12s has tempted me in for interest change. (whatever he does here, add him to your trackers, Mick will get wins out of him at some point) 

Amy’s Urban War arrives in form at least, that Beverley effort over 7f decent enough and maybe this 8f will prove ideal, especially if a more waiting ride on the front end from Pat C, who rides this place well – 5/18, 8p +9 all rides here in the last year. Amy was trying to make him into a juvenile hurdler I think, hence the experiment at 10f which he didn’t stay but was up there deep into that Sandown race, maybe having done too much also. She’s 5/27, 7p with her handicappers here, 2/9,3p aged 3.

Maybe Kayfast Warrior wins again but surely these efforts will catch up with him soon, but what a run of form. Mercurius Power beat him when meeting at Chepstow, up in class here though and very patiently ridden that day – maybe now they know he stays Hayley will be more aggressive, but that running style put me off at 5s or so, for all he could be the answer. First run here also and this doesn’t suit every horse. Chief of Staff is unexposed, 6s, maybe hated the AW LTO, Saeed in form, he won his maiden here over 7f – does have stamina to prove but still in the ‘could be anything’ camp, for all he’s clearly not one of Saeed’s good ones, hence why he’s at Brighton. Saeed and Marco are 6/12,7p when teaming up, maybe he’ll be his stable #1 one day. Zulu has been whacked 10lb for LTO which seems harsh and was inconsistent before that.

4.45 – Pentimento – 4/1 – he looks worth a go here I think, appearing to appreciate the break and running well on his first start since November over 8f here 29 days ago. He should strip fitter a tad and drops back a furlong, so maybe young Fallon will be aggressive on him in a race where Eastern Star is the potential pace setter but up in trip/yet to prove stamina. The John Best string are going better than they have been for some time and he could have a few well handicapped sorts on their hands now, including this one who used to be rated in the high 70s. 2/13, 4p in the last 30 days, and trainer/jockey are 3/8,4p +17 SP when teaming up, a combo to keep an eye on in the next couple of weeks maybe. He is a 15 race maiden but this is only his 4th run on turf, lightly raced in turf handicaps and that race LTO was ok, one of the horses behind him since winning at least. If he builds on that he should be thereabouts in another weak race.

5.20 – Holbache – 3/1 – hmm, Desert Marathon has a few more questions than the other three and it could well be between them, but who knows which is he right one. If I was track side i’d play the Carroll horse here, mainly as he has course form and the two above him in the market are running here for the first time- and also, he is the pace setter here, Mollie will try and make all and dictate from the front, unless one of the other three mixes up tactics. He’s running well, fit and in form, and those two factors would make me prefer him to the other two – but they both arrive in form also, they’re higher rated, but at 7/4 and 2s I couldn’t wade in with confidence. A trappy race, maybe time to hit the bar to spend winnings or drown sorrows, but Carroll's will do at 3s, maybe Mollie can steal it.

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Pontefract ‘through the card’

2.35 – Scarlet Dancer – 10/1 – I’ll leave the gentleman’s amateur race! And maybe this one is best left also but the market can guide in these 2YO races and this one is being nibbled at. Fahey is 5/26, 12p with his 1st time out 2YOs here in the last 2 years, so he’s of interest, as is Ravenglass – the latter is drawn wider which may not be ideal, esp if not quick away. Tony Hamilton has a better record on Fahey’s 2Yos here, 9/26, 16p +26 SP in the last 5 years, non-handicaps. 1/4,2p in Nursery handicaps. That’s an angle that may be worth absorbing, for all Hanagan does well enough on them also. They’re both unraced so who knows, but those who’ve races only set a so so standard.

3.45 – Little Jo – 11/1 EW – a vets handicap that looks trappy enough but this CD winner, way back when for Brian Ellison, may be worth an EW nibble. Certainly if he got back to the form of his Beverley 3rd and big field Thirsk win he’d be on the premises in a race like this. I don’t know what’s happened the last twice, not ding much at York or Newcastle. That’s the 2nd time he’s tailed off at York in his life but has won at Newcastle, so no track excuse there. He has had 40 days off though, maybe freshened up, and the yard are going well – 3/9,5p +19 in the last 30 days, Gemma 3/10,5p in last 30 days also, riding well, most of those for her mum. Drawn in 1, she may try and be aggressive enough. He’s versatile ground wise and has won off higher.

4.20 – Destroyer – 9/1 EW – these handicaps don’t get any easier, but he looks interesting enough here, assuming he badly needed the run 11 days ago, first start since October. He’s a CD winner (and along with Sands C the only course winner in the field, Harry George the only other to have placed) and is now 1lb below his last wining mark, which was at Leicester back in June 20, coincidentally the last time that Patrick Mathers rode him – so it could be significant that he’s been booked today, and they return to a course they know he handles. He’s drawn wide here but does like to go forward, in a race lacking loads of pace on paper. Sands Chorus will blast out and try to dictate if he’s the pace to do so, dropped in trip, but Destroyer could get out and across before the bend appears. He’s one of only three horses with any win on Good to Firm ground (Sands C, Dreamseller the others) Tom Tate does ok with his handicappers here, 4/23, 7p +30 in the last 5 years, including this lad with one of those wins. Dreamseller is being nibbled at but I’m not sure where a better run comes from on recent evidence, unless the quick return, 6 days, does the trick – it could well do.

I’ve mentioned Sands Chorus plenty above also, and given the pace set up maybe he’s worth a saver at 5s, for all that something could be better treated now – but if he builds up a decent lead he may not come back to them, in superb form on recent starts.

4.55 – Canford Bay 6/1 – hmm, what a trappy looking race. Van Gerwen is solid but he has never won back to back in his career I don’t think and the rest will be hoping he continues that profile. There could be some pace on and maybe Canford can track it, he was outpaced at Notts 15 days ago but this stiffer 5f/stronger pace may suit him. His Chester run was very good, not beaten far in 4th, he front two now 3/3 between them, so bumping into a couple of well handicapped horses who came into that C4 rated 80 & 81. Cam Hardie rides this place well enough, 5/15, 6p +31 in the last year. He’ll do.

That will do for Ponty, the final race, a C6 handicap, threatens to give me a headache, and I wasn’t overly enthusiastic about attacking the other two races i’ve skipped either (2pm – Gentleman Amateur jockeys, and 3.10, a trappy staying contest).

As always, GL with any bets but hopefully something above helps you land on a winner or two. Or an interesting read if nothing else. 

Josh