Hello Friend
Well after a rather poor May-October (not good on the flat!) my free 3m+ chase tips are starting to fire again with November seeing a return to form.
8 tips so far this month... 1,UP,UP,1,UP,2,UP,2 - winners at 7/1 and 9/1 have left a healthy looking 8 bets / 2wins / 2 further places / +10.5 points. I would take that every 8 bets through to the end of April.
And the jumps tips are on around +105 points for 2016 to date so not all bad.
But, no time to dwell in this game.
I fancy two in the 1.50 today in what looks a puzzle of a race where nothing would surprise really...
1.50 Chelts
COGRY – 1 point win – 9/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 (general)
RACING PULSE – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (general)
I have repeated all of the post below also...
Good luck with any bets today, Josh
*** Today's Post
No more content to follow today, enough to get stuck into I think! It appears Stephen used the AW TTP guide to back an 18/1 BFSP winner at Dundalk yesterday, so well done to him. Hopefully a few other AW TTP users found him also. That guide has had a good start and Perrett's Maiden runner grabbed 3rd at 50s the other day, not beaten far.
A cracking day ahead and I have no strong views on the BV Gold Cup. I have backed As De Mee for a variety of reasons- I backed him at Aintree, quals on Nicholls micro angle in TTP, and seems fancied in plenty of places- que tailing off!
The 1.50 below looks rather open- I have convinced myself that if Cogry jumps fluently he goes close- but that is a big question with him. 8s was worth a stab.
The story of the day is Jonjo really - you get the feeling he may have a cracker of a day or it will be a day that confirms he is ice cold. My hunch says the latter but there has been so much talk about his form he will probably fire in the hat-trick! If there are no problems with the yard a few of his should be winning/going close. Time will tell.
Good luck with all your bets today.
Josh
TIPS
1.50 Chelts
COGRY - 1 point win - 9/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 (general)
RACING PULSE - 1/2 point win - 16/1 (general)
I can hear Martin muttering whether I have taken my pills today given the letters in these horse's form line but I couldn't resist one more go at Cogry, and RP is just too tempting a price...
So, why these?
Well there are a few stats pointers of interest...horses that ran 16-240 days ago, ran 0-1 times last 90 days, had run over fences here, 0 wins in Grade 3 company (0/34,3p 10 years).
I think that leaves Le Reve (0/9,0p LH), Midnight Prayer (not backing one that age in this), Any Currency (same again,and Coleman would be on if expecting big run I think,13 now) and then the interesting ones... Upswing (jonjo still so cold) , Racing Pulse, Cogry, Warrantor (25s,I may have thrown around £2.5 just in case,albeit I can't see it, but then he is on the shortlist and is 25s)
Fourth Act missed by days run (but poor record LH and big stamina question) and Minella Rocco just misses days run, but is Jonjo again.
Those Aged 5-8 do best and the ideal weight ranges are 10-5 or less on back or 11-3 or more (before jock claims) 1-2 wins/places in chases have good record, as do those 1-6 chase runs. In terms of winners against number of runners.
Anyway...
COGRY...I backed him the last day where he 'fell' - he didn't really fall, he jumped the fence lovely, just came down a bit steep - may have been going too quick. They are expecting rain and some cut would help him, as it would RP. All i am asking for is a clear round as I believe he can win a race like this if he has one. Last year, on seasonal reappearance, he came a fast closing 4th in this race, coming from too far back, to lose by 2.5l. That was behind SS who tops the card. Now he has clearly improved but Cogry is a year older and could have also, but has it to prove. With the jockey claim he is receiving nearly 2 stone. If they run the same race again say, that is a big turn around. Of course if Cogry falls, that won't matter much. Given his place on the shortlist, his unexposed profile, his run in this race last year and fact I backed him LTO, i just wanted to have 'one more go'. 8s/9s seemed ok. And those top 5 in the market have the best record in this. If he doesn't run a race here, i don't know when else I can back him, esp in big field races.
Racing Pulse- well he is more of a punt but Curtis is in great form at the moment and has won a few nice chases so far this season. While you can write off large chunks of last year, this one still had a shocker. He made a howler here the last day, taking off too early and landing on top of the fence- jockey and horse were out of sync. He will like any rain and he is still in the 'could be anything' category. Given the yard form, 6/14,6 places last 14 days, and his place on the shortlist, and his price of 16s, I thought why not throw 1/2 a point at him. And that's it really. he was highly tried at times last year which gives the impression they like him.
PACE- these two will try and be in the front 3rd here and I don't think there is loads of pace, but it should be evenly run. The best horse on the day shouldn't have an excuse, and as we saw with the Pipe winner, if you have a load in hand, you can go wide and come from the back,albeit it is tougher. No excuses, I just hope the jockeys let them get into a rhythm
Warrantor has much more to prove and the trainer has a poor record with handicap chasers 60+ days, 3/39 or so. He really looks up against it but if you have any change down the side of the sofa or a free bet or something, he may be worth some throw away money at that price.
JONJO...well this is a big day for him. Nothing is running well and he has some fancied ones today. I really can't have any of his based on his form and the fact we haven't seen any signs of life really. Minella Rocco looks the most interesting and he is a micro qualifier below. Maybe savour territory if a nice price. But he is so out of form. The winners will return one day though and it may be today. Upswing just looks out of sorts to me.
Others on my shortlist included SS- who won the race last year- but previous G3 winners have a poor recent record and he'd had a run last year, albeit goes well fresh. He has a lot of weight and some effort to win from this mark- he may well do it, not too much I can say to put you off if you like him I suppose. Doctor Harper is lightly raced for his age and was punted off the boards at the Festival last year. There is a slight stamina niggle but we saw what Pipe can do with these unexposed staying chasers. This one is a decent enough price, another G3 winner.
There are a lot of older horses in here who I am happy to leave. Shotgun Paddy is a bit too exposed now and is a one paced plodder it seems. Un Ace and Unioniste seem out of sorts.
It is a strange race. Plenty in here have something to prove it seems, be it their own form or their trainers'.
Nothing would totally surprise me in this race but these two will do. I think all the 'unexposed' ones have been mentioned above, or are trained by Jonjo.
JUMPS ANGLES
Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- live test
Hurdle
3.00 Chelt- Irish Saint (clear top weight)
3.35 Chelt - For Good Measure / Red Infantry (improve for run/fresh)
2.15 Uttox - Diamond Rock (improve for run/fresh)
Chase
1.50 Chelt - Minella Rocco (hnc c debut)
2.25 Chelt - More Of That (hcnp c debut)
***
V Williams Chasers
2.25 Chelt - Aso / Tenor Nivernais
Tom George Chasers
1.40 Uttox - Bun Doran
2.25 Chelt - Double Shuffle
K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)
1.40 Gino Trail (angle 1+2)
Sat TJC- Hobbs/Johnson
1.50 Chelt - Sausalito Sunrise
2.25 Chelt - Village Vic
***
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