Good Morning Friend

I hope you had a great weekend, the last of the 'summer' maybe. A definite change in the weather this week, which is good news for the winter jumps horses and those of us who enjoy national hunt racing. 

There's a quick look back at The Cambridgeshire, more jumps winners, a chaser for your notebook and a couple of free posts you may have missed...

Saturday was a decent day, I had fun track-side at Newmarket. It was pleasing to see one of my main three 'interest' bets run well in The Cambridgeshire, Ametist 33s>22s running a fine race in 3rd. 

I flagged the form of Saeed Bin Suroor in the video preview, not that I got anywhere near Bedouin's Story at 40s+ , under a majestic ride from Spencer. The horse winning makes more sense in hindsight when looking back, but then they always do. But, looking back briefly does help improve our chances of being right more often pre race moving forwards. 

He had decent 'big field handicap form' form including three starts back at Sandown in a decent handicap, staying on over 8f off 2lb lower. (and a facile win in a 20 runner handicap on his CV, and good form in Meydan) He had course experience and 9f was the furthest he'd gone, as a reason for improvement. He'd been 'staying' on in most races, clearly crying out for a stronger pace over further. But it was the relentless gallop/big field, and Jamie, that unlocked his true potential. And the yard form of course. Some of his recent Racing Post Ratings were consistent and above his current mark, as an indication it was workable. 

If you're still looking at the flat, Saeed's runners are clearly worth keeping onside at the moment, 4/12,6p in the last five days. 

Those drawn high appeared to do best and the runs of the Irish pair, Zozimus and Fastnet Crown can be marked up I think, draw low on the far side. They look two well handicapped horses who clearly relish a decent field size/strong pace, and will no doubt pop up somewhere when getting conditions to suit. 

Jean Baptiste ran well for a long way on the far side, leading until 8f or so before gradually fading, but a solid 10th. Only 4, he will find weaker races than that in which to make all in and could well pop up before the season is out. Maybe he'd have preferred it a touch softer, but he has form on the all-weather also. 

I managed to flag three winners with my 'Newmarket' notes in my members' post that I backed track side. 7s, 7/2, 9s.  All good fun. 

The highlight of my day was the 3.55 Market Rasen, watching Buster Thomas (6s >7/2) win well enough under an inspired Tom Bellamy (a jockey to keep onside, and with his new job at Emma Lavelle's - they could have a solid few months & years ahead). 

Back-to-back winners for my members' tips after Wye Aye's win at Perth, and a welcome +16-18 points into the pot. I'll see if I can bring up the hat-trick this week. 

It's taken me far too long to realise that my official 'tips' should just focus on 2m7f+ jumps races. Thankfully I realised that around the end of April and with any luck it will be a fun and profitable few months ahead, and forever more. 

I need to check but I think since last October that's around +84-90 points profit in my 'specialist' area to 1 point win bets (+900 to £10 bets), a 35-45% ROI (9am prices, monitored for 15 minutes, non-bog) 

Sadly I didn't just focus on those last winter, but will be this time and hopefully that means even better results again - a fresher mind, knowing the horses and form-lines inside out etc. 

I tried too hard in 'big races/festivals' last winter season, which didn't go well- you simply can't be good at everything in this game - well, I can't anyway - specialising is best for me, my mind and the time I have available/how I like to run the blog. My 'tips' are only one part of the content I try to offer, but they are an important element that has to work. 

It's important to reflect and learn from your mistakes, and then stride forward with purpose.  

I've never been so excited about what's to come as I know at my best I read these races, especially chases, as well as anyone. I'll be working hard to ensure the profits keep adding up long term. 

Looking back at the 3.55, there is one horse to take from it moving forwards...

Prince Escalus - he was the least exposed in the race, a point winner making his rules debut, after a decent time over hurdles when last seen. Provided he stays sound, he will clearly be winning chases. This was his first run in a few months and he was a bit too fresh/keen at times. However he travelled well on the front end and jumped well. I do like it when connections think they've a chaser on their hands and they don't spend overly long jumping hurdles. 

The front two in this race set an ok standard. I doubt he's a world beater, and a minor question over whether a mark of 130 is lenient enough (and some of his form only 'so so') - but he's so lightly raced, and over fences, there must be more to come. He was behind two solid yardsticks in this race. 

He could be even better over 3m+, but I suspect they'll have some fun with him and he's one to keep an eye on in the next few weeks. He will come on for this run and should settle better next time. 

Jonjo's having a good time of it at the moment also, some rare consistency. 

A couple of posts you may have missed and if you're a fan of the jumps, worth a read...

A few straight forward trainer angles looking at those who do well in October & November with horses making their seasonal return. It's useful to know whether the horse you like is likely to be fit or not and these stats will help. 

2. The Jumps: Hot Form & Chasers To Follow 

A few jumps horses for your notebook it could be worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks. 

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I may just give away for free, we shall see. It promises to be some of my best research work on paper, time will tell if that translates into profit! :) 

Have a great start to your week, 

All the best, 

Josh