Good Morning, Friend

As always I hope your week has started well and you had a great weekend. 

I believe a few of you use the 'ITV Trends' post to land on Phoenix Way, who hit the profile and 'shortlist' of four, (although only 8 runners!), but Harry Fry had won the race previously also. A nice SP of 7/1. 

I remain in ok form, a rare 2 pointer on a shorty in Royale Pagaille. I thought he'd just outclass them but in truth expected him to win a shade more cosily than he did, not that it mattered come the line. I don't think he relished that sticky, holding ground and Charlie never really looked happy. Anyway, he won, which is all that matters. If the Gold Cup comes up testing ground, they have to run him, and he could sneak a place, unless he prefers flat tracks.

That's now three big Saturday chase winners in a row after Prime Venture (20s) and Eclair Surf (12s), and I'll be trying to land on this Saturday's Skybet Chase winner, as well as Thursday's Thyestes winner. Fingers crossed. 

My class 3, 3m+ chase tips are the main 'tipping' focus on my blog but in early December I started dabbling with some 'morning musings' - this is where I use the daily content - stats qualifiers and resident pro punter, Adam Norman's, excellent track side notes (as well as any trends posts etc) as a 'way in' and flag horses I'm backing and why I like them. 

I can't complain with how they're shaping up, posted at 9am, to 1 point win bets, including a 9/1 winner on Sunday who bolted up... 

44 bets / 11 wins / 18 places (inc wins) / +21.5 points (as advised/non bog) 

Best odds guaranteed would have added another 7/8 points on top of that. Solid. Over +£100 to £5 win bets, not to be sniffed at. 

The aim is to build on them of course, and with that in mind I've shared the two horses flagged at Leicester today. 

One has been nibbled at , the other has drifted. But you can see my notes that follow, which includes a chase angle for Tom George, which if you like your trainer stats, may be worth noting. 

So, as posted within the Members' post at 9am, with any luck I haven't cursed them...

Morning musings… (11/44,18p, +21.5)

1.50 Leic – Fresh New Dawn – 5/1

1.50 Leic – Coupdebol – 13/2

Rather than agonise over which one of these two to pick I thought sod it, just back the pair of them! Having two onside in a C5 novice handicap chase may be asking for trouble of course, however…

Fresh New Dawn – one of Adam’s noted horses from when winning at Market Rasen, a repeat of which may well be good enough here. It was his first win over fences in 11 starts but you couldn’t fault him really – he bounced out, made all, jumped well – bar the last where he was slow and gave the others a chance- before finding plenty for pressure, sticking his head down and battling on. It was a likeable performance, and certainly in the context of a race like this. If he came here on the back of that run he’d be 5/2 in this line up I suspect, maybe the odds compilers are overreacting to that PU last time, where he was up in class, down in trip, raced on awful ground and had an inexperienced pilot on. He’s now back on his favoured good ground, back down in class, up in trip and Fergus returns to the saddle. He should go forward and try and make all. If he jumps as well as MR, he may get plenty of these in trouble and that win should have done his confidence plenty of good. 

Olly Murphy has a fine record at Leicester also – 13/35, 21p +42 all runners, 6/12,10p +16 in the last year. Oh, and the form of that MR win has worked out -he beat San Agustin in that race, unexposed – he won his next start and was 3/1 in a later race on today’s card, now a non-runner. The 4th, Steel Wave has since won, and the 5th, Mister Robbo, won his next start also. So some substance, in the context of a race like this. 5s looks more than fair to me.

Coupdebol – a Trainer Track Profiles stats qualifier listed above… why have Terry Warner and Tim Syder kept this 102 rated chaser in training, his third start back after missing 747 days off. I can only think he shows something at home and they think there’s something there. This is ‘the’ ‘could be anything’ horse in the race, he could demolish this lot, it wouldn’t be a surprise. It’s his third run back after that absence, he goes chasing for the first time in his life, he steps up in trip and returns to better ground, which could well be the key also. He ran well in a French hurdle when aged 4, bought by connections after that I think but not a public sale so I can’t see how much they paid for him, but a solid amount no doubt. In Nov 19 he ran in aC3 Newbury Maiden hurdle, and he moved ok there for a time, 16f. He was 6/16, beaten 25l, 10 subsequent winners out of that and a few subsequent 130+ types. 

Something then went wrong and he reappeared on 15th December, again at Newbury in a C4 maiden hurdle, where he ran an eye-catching race. He moved well through it and wasn’t far off them 3 out, before tiring/getting outpaced, possibly outclassed also. Still, it was eye-catching. LTO he may have bounced, or got stuck in the mud, or he does just need a fence now. He does have some size about him and I think he may relish fences, they could transform him, as could this better ground. And this is an awful race, truly woeful.

James Bowen rides, I don’t know where Johnny Burke is, no booked rides from what I can see in next few days, but James did ride him two starts back, so that booking may be a positive, he’s a top jock and riding with confidence.

Some stats… Tom George does well here, 9/33, 19p +8 all runners last 5 years.

I have done some digging in my horseracebase account and stumbled across the following angle…

• Tom George
• Beginners chase, maiden chase, handicap chase, handicap novice chase
• Age 7-8 (indicating he’s given them time/been patient/let them matured maybe)
• Horse had 0 chase runs (so chase debut, in UK/IRE anyway, some no doubt with French form)
• 12/1 or shorter SP (guide, 0/12,2p bigger)
• 2008 >

39 bets / 17 wins / 20p / 48% sr / +48 SP / +62 BFSP / BFAE 2.03

The stats suggest that having waited until they’re 7/8 t go chasing, (whether by design, or injury etc) Tom doesn’t like wasting much time in trying to get a chase win out of them, preferably on their chase debut. Coupdebol hits those stats and that’s lured me in also.

He could just be useless of course, have problems, maybe he doesn’t jump very well! But in this sort of race, he’s the sort who could just lob along and blow them away, with a fair amount in hand. The market may guide. And if he doesn’t, the Murphy horse may have put these to the sword by then!

I didn’t like the rest of them. Adam has noted Just Don’t Know, maybe he will do for me, but now 0/7,1p in carer, 0/4,1p chasing and having watched LTO back I thought it was only a so-so effort. I preferred the Murphy horse, we shall see if I’ve got that right.

The rest of them have even more questions and look a mediocre bunch, but it is a C5 novice handicap chase, maybe something else will be transformed for a fence.

Good luck if following me in, 

Josh