Good Morning Friend
I hope you had a great weekend and hopefully a few of you used the 'ITV Trends & Trainers' post to land on a winner or two.
Below I've a few pointers for Ayr, possibly useful for today but certainly moving forwards.
Following that there's one final shout out for the Crypto Webinar/Freebies I mentioned the other day. They've posted a recording for free, no need to enter your email address etc. I watched it live and found it informative, and if you've any interest it's worth watching, or even if you're just curious.
First up... the horses... to Ayr..
in today's members post I flagged the form of Nick Alexander...
An ‘in-form’ trainer to keep an eye on with 7 runners on the card, for all a few monsters/unfancied as yet… Nick Alexander... his are worth keeping an eye on up north in the coming days… 5/28, 12p in the last 30 days… 1/11,6p in the last 14 days, but 71% rivals beaten – so they’re going rather well and maybe unlucky not to have had a few more winners on the board.
His last runner on 22nd Nov, which was at Ayr, won. If you wanted a ‘way in’ for the day, flicking through his runners may be no bad starting place. For all I know what happens now! He's got a few runners who's odds suggest 'not today', but a couple nearer the top of the market. But if you like playing at any Northern/Scottish tracks, his runners are worth keeping an eye on in the next couple of week's as they're clearly going well.
There's a few horses running that Adam's previously noted from his track side /paddock side adventures. Specifically the 2.10...
Schalke – AN 5.11.21 -Ok type quite athletic, matched earlier form and better expected once sent handicapping. Will stay 3m.
Kiss My Face – AN 21.10.21 – Compact, strong, being brought along very steadily but this was a step in the right direction, held together off the pace before staying on late. Mark no gift, however.
Theflickeringlight – AN 17.11.21- Off the track a long time and nowhere near fit.
They're a good starting point and Adam posted a comment under today's members' post with his thoughts on Schalke...
2.10 Ayr Schalke is a horse I’ve been waiting to be sent handicapping and this race looks a good fit. He showed really consistent form in four bumper runs for a horse that wants a trip, and has swiftly resumed that level over timber, not knocked about over Kelso’s quick 2m and then shaping nicely in a good race at Hexham over this sort of trip. The handicapper was happy to give him a mark of 105 on the back of those two efforts which could seriously under-estimate his ability. When I went to interview Becky for my blog more than two years ago she was pretty sweet on an unraced horse by Malinas and that was Schalke. Basically, his career starts today.
James B posted a reply... "I’ve been having good success with Adam’s notes, Schalke was the one I backed last night based on those, will top up now after further positive comments, fingers crossed for a good run" JB
Another members fancies Time Leader, so we shall see if either is right! Or something else does for them.
In any case, Schalke will win races at some point, whatever he does today, and is one for the notebook.
My weekend ended up being a bit 'meh' - Dolphin Square was a nice winner on Friday but then I spent Saturday & Sunday giving it all back.
I got the ground wrong at Newcastle, assuming it would be much softer and ignoring what the Clerk said officially. He was right, it actually rode nearer good/good to soft, despite the rain they'd had. I assumed it would be testing and that swayed me away from Aye Right and into a couple of bigger priced other sloggers (who could never go the pace on what was good!) - silly boy.
I had Fiddlerontheroof in the 'Ladbroke' who ran well. Remastered was probably going to win, thankfully he got up. Other days for him. I then thought only a matter of time before the Tizzard horse won, but he could never get there/got going a bit too late, for all the winner did it well. One for Venetia, and I wasn't anywhere near! Gulp.
I also played in the 2.05 Fairyhouse on Sunday, 3rd the best I could there at 12/1. A weekend of frustration, as is the way in this great game. Always a tomorrow.
If you like your staying chasers, and like dabbling in Ireland, I'd add the top three to your trackers (Smoking Gun, The Dabbler, Fairyhill Run). All three bounced off that winter 'good' ground and I think have more chases in them one day, somewhere (maybe next spring if/when the ground goes). There was talk of The Kim Muir or The Irish National for 'Smoking Gun', who has some decent back-form to his name and won easily enough. He's got something half decent in him over fences when it all drops right, still unexposed. I missed him here sadly. Next time.
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Moving on...
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Have a great start to your week,
All the best,
Josh |
