Hello Friend

I did ponder going all American and shoving some dodgy deals down your throat but if your inboxes look like mine this morning, I suspect you're already sick of such things. 

So, I thought i'd just share some freebies/free content instead. Hurrah! 

Plenty to muse over and use/ignore as you please. As always. Hopefully I can help you land on a winner or three.  

Next week I will shout a bit louder about my Members Club and I'm pondering doing a fancy Christmas prize giveaway for any new trialists and existing members, with various prizes up for grabs as a thank you/bonus. 

I'll save the 'selling' for next week (how lucky you are! :) ) but in terms of useful information... there's a 30 day trial, and I've made more explicit a 'no questions asked, 30 day money back guarantee' for first subscription payments post 30 day trial, so in effect a 60 day trial! (you can check that out here>>>) 

I did also record a 'behind the scenes' look at the blog, in an attempt to bring the content to life. 

If you get very bored this weekend, you can watch my 'behind the scenes' video of how I try and add to your enjoyment of this great game on the blog, HERE >>>  

Right, enough of that, some freebies to ponder... 

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If you missed Kieran Ward's excellent free report, grab it HERE >>>

This won't be available for much longer, do don't miss out. 

It found a well backed winner yesterday, 6/1 BFSP, and a 28/1 close second. It's worth absorbing, even as a 'way in'. And not many of the usual names you'd expect. 

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For this week’s trends offering I've focussed on the big three ‘staying’ handicap chases live on ITV. (including the 'Hennessy') You can find those pointers below, including my own shortlists against the trends and trainer pointers. 

Below that you can find the ‘TV Trainer Pointers’ for all the other live ITV races, horses representing trainers who’ve won said race previously in the study period (up to last 13 renewals in horseracebase) Have the trainers targeted the race again??

These are a great 'way in' for Saturday's ITV races, including if you play the ITV7 or like a placepot etc. 

if you've any fancies on Saturday, do post them in the comments :) 

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I shouldn't really do this as often when I send out members' tips they fall out the back of the TV! So apologies in advance and to all existing members/trialists. At least I'm in ok form, it's been a profitable 7 days but I could do with building on it. 

Below you can find my x3 picks, posted at 9am, followed by my write ups, which may be worth a read... (I focus on jumps races, 2m7f+, C4+) 

#1 – 2.50 Doncaster – Paricolour – 1 point win – 13/2 (gen)

#2 – 3.00 Newbury – Lisnegar Oscar – 1 point win – 13/2 (betF) 6/1 (gen)

#3 – 3.35 Newbury – Dolphin Square – 1 point Each-Way – 15/2 (1/5,5p, WH) 7/1 (1/5,5p, Sky, PP, BetfS) 15/2 (1/5,4p, 888, BV, BetF)

Paricolor – I thought 13/2 underestimated him here and he should be much closer to the top two on form. Aged 5, he’s 8/22,11p in his career to date, a winning machine. Most of those have been in sellers but he ran a stormer LTO in his first ‘proper’ race/handicap for some time. That was a C3 around Cheltenham, 2m5f, they looked to go a decent pace and he stayed on really well up the hill. The front 2 were clear of the rest and the front 3 well clear, in a race packed with unexposed sorts. Jonjo’s was fav that day but came down early, he won at Taunton yesterday, the only horse to have ran since. I just think that handicap hurdling performance is the best of what any of these have achieved to date. He does have to prove his stamina but that effort LTO suggest 3m around Doncaster, with good in the going, should be within range, and it could be what he now wants. He did stay on well up the hill LTO. There’s also little pace on paper, I’m not sure this will be frenetic, and he can race handily. He may even try to make all, and if saving plenty, should have no excuse for not getting home. He arrives fit, in form, down in class, up in trip and I thought a lot to like at 13/2. He’s taken his racing well in the past so the 14 day gap shouldn’t be an excuse either, unless that was such a big effort LTO he folds, and needs an extra week or two, but guessing there. Pipe does ok with his Doncaster raiders, 4/25,9p all runners in the last 5 years.

Moon King and White Walker look the main dangers but short enough. The former was fancied on his seasonal return LTO, he was a smart flat horse, and ran well at Chepstow. But was beaten, when clearly fit I think, and has gone up 5lb for his troubles. He is unexposed in this sphere and it looks like he stays well but his jumping could tidy up also. White Walker needs both of those to underperform I think, coming in here off 95, still well handicapped just whether his legs are fast enough to beat those two, and I wasn’t sure. his form only so so in recent weeks, he needs more here but they clearly fancy him. I didn’t like the others for one reason or another.

Hopefully Paricolor can run as he did at Cheltenham and build on it, he’s no 13/2 shot in this line up if he does.

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Lisnagar Oscar – what’s that I can see approaching, another jagged cliff edge! This may be the 3rd time i’ve tipped /backed him, it’s definitely the 2nd having had a go in last season’s Stayers Hurdle – he was swinging away when coming to grief down the back. It was still some way from home but you can just tell sometimes given how horses are moving, and given he won it the year before, I’m in no doubt he’d have been thereabouts over the last. He hasn’t done much wrong since his Stayers win (he and Paisley the only G1 winners in this line up today). His two runs after that were under par but he had a wind op after, suggesting a problem. He then returned and nearly won a G2 at Haydock, losing to Third Wind who’s a solid horse, 3/4 length and he probably needed the run a bit also, and he had his 6lb penalty, which he doesn’t any more. There was then that fall at Chelt when cruising before a drab effort at Aintree, I suspect feeling the effects of that cruncher. He returned at Aintree on the 6th, first run 210 days, 20f, outpaced but stayed on pleasingly enough like a horse running into form. This will have been the plan.

Rebecca’s are going better now also, 2/6, 2p 59% rivals beaten in the last 14 days. Apparently they had a problem with feed or something which is why plenty had been running below par, hopefully they’re over that now. Most of hers have been badly needing the run so this one’s effort LTO could be marked up further. There’s little out and out pace on paper in this either and he can race handily. It’s not impossible Adam hits the front at some point and stacks these up, all playing to his tune. The ground should be fine, he stays well, and is now free of that 6lb penalty, and now receives 6lb from Paisley. I thought he looked the overpriced one in this line up, with proven G1 class and this isn’t a great race. I thought he should be second fav here, but maybe it’s telling he isn’t.

Of the rest… the jury is out whether Paisley is on the downgrade now, or not as good as he was. Of course, he may not need to be to win this. I suspect he’ll strip plenty fitter for his return and the 1st CP may help him hold a position through the race. I didn’t think a tactical race, which this may be, would suit either, unless Aidan goes sod it, tries something different and bombs him forward. He is the most thorough stayer in the race. Hopefully he runs well but Lisnagar may have too much this time, slightly younger legs and in receipt of that 6lb.

Of course both may underperform, which I think they need to for Mrs Milner to take this. She is unexposed, a Festival handicap winner and did it well on return LTO. She does have plenty to find on ratings though and has to prove she’s up to this class. 11/4 looked very short to my eyes. I’m not sure what Indefatigable beat LTO, Paisley clearly underperformed and I’m not sure it took much winning. But that’s not her fault and she did it well. She’s fit, in form, stays well, should run her race. Just whether something else has a shade more class, but in any case 7/2 looked about right. Thomas Darby has more questions to answer I think. I’m not sure he’s the strongest stayer at this trip, I wasn’t sure on him under pressure LTO/his head carriage (although I said that about the Nicholls beast that won at Taunton, tut) and I could leave at 15/2 – but at his very best, he could be in there pitching. On The Blind Side should be outclassed I think.

This race has an odd feel and isn’t the deepest Long Walk you’ll see. But Lisnegar just looked big at 6s to my eyes given his best form. A big run expected, no excuse here for me not to run his race and be bang there.

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Dolphin Square – if I’ve had a drab day to this point it’s probably written in the stars he’ll finish 6th (5 places x3 different companies, x4 bookies, and 5 places on betfair exchange, for all don’t know what that will pay, money back on the race as a worst case hopefully, 2.00), but I think he’s the one to beat and is the classiest handicap hurdler on show here, on what these have done to date and the others have to step up.

He arrives fit and in form at least, outpaced a tad around Lingfield, 2m7f there sharp enough and not at a frantic gallop. But he wasn’t beaten far come the line. I doubt they’d have wanted him to win that either, if this has been the plan. The Hobbs horses are ticking along fine and he’s 2/13, 9p with his runners in the race. One of those places includes Dolphin in this 2 years ago, off 131 in what to my eyes was a deeper renewal. He was too far back that day and swept around wide, only horse to run up the nearside rail. A solid 4th of 18, running on. He was 2nd over the CD last November also, in a deep enough Pertemps Qualifier which produced numerous subsequent winners. Again, a deeper race than this. A running on 2nd there (off 137, 134 today), and that was his first start in 271 days. I hope its significant they’ve wanted to get a run into him, they must have pencilled this in. IF he repeats either of those two efforts, he will not be out the first 5 here today, he won’t be out the first 4, and I think is the one to beat. He’s run well a few times since, but this CD, decent pace, big field, ok ground with some cut, is right up his street.

In handicap hurdles he’s… 0/3,3p at the track, 0/4,4p on Good-Good to Soft, 1/2,2p over 3m, 0/3,3p in C2, 0/4,3p in November, and 1/4,4p under his owner-jockey, David Maxwell. He’s 5/11,10p all rides on this horse. I mean what could possibly go wrong from an each-way perspective?!

It’s wise to go EW given the places, and David wouldn’t be the most polished in the saddle but he knows this horse very well, he knows his way around here, and this is a classy horse, still only 7. He tries, and with any luck David may have him a bit further forward than he can do. He will run on and looks like he stays better than most in here also.

I wanted him onside.

Of the others… well of the bigger priced ones…

Slate House is worth keeping an eye on, a different sort of profile but just too many questions at the moment. I’m in no doubt this mark is workable. His return run was so-so, held up last, doing sod all from 3 out. That was in the G2 that Paisley etc ran in LTO, but even so. I don’t know if the horse finds little for pressure these days or like many from the yard he was sick last season. IF they can get him back to being a racehorse, there are some wins in him still and he would dot up in a handicap somewhere, either hurdles or fences. Interesting he’s being nibbled at. He was the most intriguing of the double figure priced ones I thought.

I didn’t like many of the others at the top end, none looked overpriced anyway. Fergal’s looks short I suppose but maybe I’m underestimating Cartmel form! He’s fit, in form, unexposed over 3m. I wasn’t sure he’d be good enough but he’s now fav. Up in class here, his last two races haven’t worked out, he needs more. I’ll happily oppose and if I’m wrong, so be it. One For You looked the right price at 4s, as yet hard to know what the form of his return here is worth. He should build on that, may come on for the run, and Tom has picked him over Umndeni. He is unexposed. Will a repeat of LTO be enough? Maybe. But he ran as if fit and as if open to attack from something better treated. Still, he should occupy a place and if you can do that, you can win, just 4s looked tight. But I could be wrong. A TTP stats qualifier also. I’d fancy him over Fergal’s for sure, and over…

Certainly Red… in form, but up in the weights, up in class. He beat Moon King LTO, who I’m opposing in that 2.50 at Donny. If he hacks up there, it would strengthen this one’s chance, so something to keep an eye on. But still, those have been C4s and he’s up into an ok C2. Now on a career high mark, not for me. But again, he could be in there pitching.

The rest have a fair few questions also and if I haven’t mentioned the winner already, I wasn’t that close. I didn’t really like anything else for one reason or another.

Pace wise… not loads on paper here, Drumlee Watar will try and make all, Flemcara, Shannon B, Alrightjack usually track the pace. I hope David slots in behind those. If he holds him up out the back here today, a place is the best I can hope for as he will be left with too much to do, but he should really know that. Still, lots of time up this straight to get motoring.

Fingers crossed for a good day,

Thanks for reading, and best of luck with any bets as always. 

Josh

p.s don't forget Kieran's useful stats freebie HERE >>>

p.p.s Or my ITV Trends & Trainers post, which usually highlights a few winners. Can you find them?! Yours to use as you please, HERE >>>