Good Morning Friend

I hope you've had a great week. 

It's starting to feel like 'national hunt' weather and while rain is never fun, its much needed for our jumping friends. One week to go until Chepstow kicks things off and it feels like the winter season really begins. How exciting. 

However, there is one last hurrah on the flat from me, with an ITV Races 'Through The Card' down below which i've copied from my members' post. 

The photo above is of 'our' (the new RTP Syndicate) unraced filly, still unnamed, who's out of Shirocco, sire of Annie Power - we can dream! Her mother's offspring have won x11 between them, including Pendra, and if she gets anywhere near his ability we will have some fun in the coming years. She looks a stamp of a mare already, with so much growing to do. She's pleasing Amy and the team, although no fast work as yet. She'll be out in early 2022 all being well, a few bumpers, possibly a novice hurdle or two. 

The 'big lad' Mercian Knight, may well start off his campaign at Uttoxeter on the 15th Oct. He'll win a 26f+ muddy slog somewhere this winter. Exciting times and we have a great group of members. You can keep an eye on them both and cheer them on for us. 

So not bad, I’ve probably put the mockers on today’s efforts, but I’ll give it a go. After all, these ITV races are easy to solve! Ahem.

As of 18.23 Friday…

All the usual caveats, I’d typically spend longer one x1 ‘tipping’ race (Jumps races, C4+, 2m7f+) than I would on the following, but sometimes instinct & not over thinking can work well, and there is always some method to my madness... 

1.45 Newmarket

Ms Gandhi – 12/1 – EW 4p

Ah, an easy race to kick things off, a 14 runner 3YO only fillies handicap! All lightly raced most still open to improvement. Easy. As per the trends/trainers post above, Varian has won this race before so knows what’s needed. He’s in fine form, Jack Mitchell does well for him and the filly’s in form, this just her fourth handicap. Some of her races have worked out ok and I thought a chance she may relish a strong pace at this trip, just tracking the 4/5 who may get on with it. I think she’s a ‘staying’ 10f horse, which could be no bad thing here today. LTO didn’t go to plan, it was a dawdle, she failed to settle, and may well just not have got home over that 12f, certainly not given the energy wasted. The fact they pitched her into that C2, having hacked up in a Ripon C4, making all, may be some indication of what they think of her/this mark. It’s an open race but on paper as good as chance as any I think, all the usual caveats.

2.05 Ascot

Hurricane Ivor – 3/1

One with ‘winners eyes’ here. Is he overpriced, I doubt it, but he’s just getting better and better on recent evidence and I don’t see why he won’t be bang there in this. They could get a fair bit of rain through the afternoon- good to soft is fine, if it turns into a proper bog, that would be a question – and it would enhance the chances of Dakota Gold I suppose, who hasn’t had his ground yet this season – he’s won the last two renewals of this, and I suppose it wouldn’t be a shock if this had been ‘the’ plan all season. He is open to attack from younger legs but he does get 5lb from Hurricane, who carries a penalty for his facile G3 win LTO, when beating Tis Marvellous. He could be thereabouts/hard to keep out of the three.

2.20 Newmarket

Fearby – 7/2

Hmm, a 30 runner Tatts Auction Stakes race, 81k to the winner, nice race to win. The fav is obvious enough I suppose, having bolted up in a listed race at Sandown and far from disgraced in Group 2 and 3 races since. He’s rated 105 here, next in 91, a few in 80s and then 70s. I could just trust the BHA ratings here, clearly if he runs to his mark, the rest in here have an awful lot on. He may not do of course, but I’ve no idea what would step forward and take this if he doesn’t….

In saying that… Zoom, 20/1… Richard Hannon is the only trainer represented here who’s won the race previously and I’ll trust he’s put Sean Levey on the right one of his four here, as he would have 1st pick. Has this been the plan? He knows the type of horses required and he does do well in these sorts of races. Think Happy Romance, and others. He only made his debut 14 days ago, running well enough. This the second run of his life, properly in the ‘could be anything’ category- of course that also means ‘could be all at sea into the dip/nowhere near good enough’. But, if you wanted an EW bet in this, 5 places, there’s logic for why he’d be near the top of the list at a price.

2.40 Ascot

Alounak – 8/1 EW

He could be a shade overpriced here, for all it looks a trappy race. He needs more than LTO but appears to have taken a step forward this season and his running on 3rd in The Ebor, beaten 1 3/4l was decent, and he was waiting for a run for a time. Big field premier handicap form can translate ok to Listed/Group 3 level. Hs form ties in with Quickthorn from that race, who’s half the price. His Chester run wasn’t too bad and he’s got the ability to mix it here. He stays further which may be no bad thing and soft ground won’t bother him.

Of those near the top of the market, i’d probably prefer Title at 10/3. The gelding op appeared to work wonders LTO, bolting up easily in a handicap off 103, posting an RPR 115. There’s a fair bit of untapped potential with him and he gets 6lb as a 3YO, which may help. Hukum has to give him 9lb. The fact Varian has pitched him into this G3 after LTO is probably some indication as to what they think (although from a revised mark of 110, handicaps were out the question), and softer ground no issue at all.

He probably is the most interesting horse in the race, given his unexposed profile.

2.55 Newmarket

Mother Earth – 3/1

Trust in Moore and O’Brien I think. She hasn’t done much wrong all season, albeit just beaten by Snow Lantern at Newmarket. She was a tad unlucky there and indeed LTO. O’Brien’s haven’t been firing as they can all season but they’re going better in the last 14 days, and it’s not impossible her class has been keeping her thereabouts, but like plenty in the yard may be healthier now, who knows. She’s got a pacemaker in here, not drawn too far away, and I didn’t see many holes really.

At a monster price, the outsider of the field Dreamloper, 33s-40s looked big I thought. I suppose she was naff in Ireland when last seen, maybe just didn’t enjoy travelling over. She was outpaced over 7f the run before. Three starts back she bolted up at Ascot in a G3, a performance which if replicated may be good enough to grab a place here. I don’t think she’s the class to win, not from what we’ve seen. The price bemuses me a bit – maybe it’s the ground, best form on quicker, combined with LTO’s effort and the fact Oisin probably had the choice of the two in this. Still, in terms of her best form, I thought that a tad insulting. Obv she’ll tail off again now! This is probably too deep, but she'll pop up again somewhere. 

3.15 Ascot

Great Ambassador – 4/1

Ed Walker has won this race previously and I want to side with the in-form progressive one here who brings some decent form to the table. He was 2nd in the Ayr Gold Cup when last seen, beaten by Bielsa there, who re-opposes. He had to give him 8lb there, and B could have been on the faster strip of turf. He stuffed the rest his side, and it was some effort really. They run off level weights here and in theory if both running the same race, he should finish ahead. Of course, if this game were that simple in terms of weights and measures, they’d be no bookies left. They’re drawn next to each other here so at least we will find out. Softer ground isn’t a problem for him, not on the evidence of his Steward’s cup 3rd when also unlucky, as away from the main action, beating his group. He won a Listed race at York easily enough two starts back. Of course a chance that Ayr effort has left a mark, but 4s looked fair enough.

Glen Shiel is the classy horse I suppose, a Group 1 winner at last seasons champions day, in a Group 3 today, having been competing in G1s the last three runs. He’s back on his preferred softer ground which offers an excuse for the last twice I think, for all they’re not machines. Hollie is elsewhere for her retainer I think. I can see why he’s 3/1, but he is 7 and maybe GAs younger legs will have him, for all he sets a fair standard if recapturing his best of even repeating three starts back from Royal Ascot.

3.35 Redcar

Chipotle – 5/1

Famous last words but surely he wont be out top 4 here, 1/5 the odds. I suppose he is a bit of a hostage to fortune as he will be behind horses, but he’s not done much wrong since his Royal Ascot win and has been shaping as if he needs 6f now, which he gets here. This is a fair drop in class from his last three starts, and he was unlucky the time before that in The Super Sprint. Eve’s in fine form the last 14 days, 6/20,7p , trainer/jockey 3/8 in that time. He’s the classy horse in the race and maybe he’ll take these apart, that wouldn’t surprise me at his best, for all he will need luck in running and does have to prove stamina, but I don’t think that will be a problem, all he did was stay on at Ascot’s stiff 5 when winning.

I prefer him to Fahey’s Vintage Clarets, for all not much between them on ratings. The rest need both of these to under-perform massively for me, while taking big strides forward themselves. But it is a 2YO race and they are entitled to do just that from one run to the next.

3.50 Ascot

Ascension 16/1, EW 5p

Just the 18 runner heritage handicap to finish and if i’ve struggled up to this point there’s always the jumps! 🙂

I’ve used my trends shortlist as a ‘way in’ here and tried to find something at a double figure price. I’m not sure why this one is quite so big here. He has had 84 days off but I assume because they’ve been waiting for softer ground, which his profile suggests he wants. I’ll have to take fitness on trust and that they’ve galloped any freshness out of him at home, you don’t want to be buzzy at the best of times, and certainly not in a race like this. I think he’s got the form to compete. Three starts back making all over 8f at Newbury in an ok C2. I’m not sure what went wrong at Chester but the run before he ran well in The Lincoln at Donny in March (where has that time gone?!) , travelling well for a long long way before fading. I can forgive his Ascot run, given the rattling fast ground. LTO out at York, over 10f, he cruised to 2/3f out, fading in the last 1f. He does move like he’s still got room in this mark.

Of some interest… they drop him right back in trip here, (for all a stiff track and it could be proper soft by race time) in a race with no pace on paper. Who’s going to bomb on? This race could be there for a waiting ride on the front, which isn’t usually the case over this CD. Will David try and blast off in front, make all, and use his stamina to good effect? I can dream.

The market may guide, if he loses a leg from 16s, I won’t hold out much hope and maybe its to set him up for something else- a handicap on Champions Day maybe?

River Nymph is the obvious one I suppose and Aldaary shows up well also against conditions, both still 'more to come', no surprise they’re the 1-2 in the market, both appear on my trends shortlist also.  

If you wanted one from near the top of the market, it's between those two. I'll no doubt pick wrong! I think i'd go for River Nymph! He won a decent CD handicap here in May, had one run after in a G3 where not disgraced, before being put away, avoiding the summer ground. He returned in a Listed race LTO, running well, 4/15, ‘running on’. I still think room in this mark off 104 and it wouldn’t be a shock if this had been a plan, protecting his mark in a higher class race LTO, with the bonus that he could have won it. Although this is 65k to the winner, that Listed contest 23k. I wonder which they’d prefer?! For all he’s still got his tackle /breeding potential. I suppose he’s ‘the’ obvious one, but sometimes obvious is best. He will handle the ground no bother, CD form, in form, he really shouldn’t be very far away at all. Aldaary should relish conditions also, especially of the rain comes. 

**

I think that's the lot. Hopefully an interesting read if nothing else, but i'll keep my fingers crossed for a winner or two. But they may help with placepots, the free ITV 7, any fun multiples or give you further confidence for a single on something you'd already plucked out. 

Best of luck and have a great weekend, 

Josh