Hello Friend
Predictably yesterday's efforts didn't amount to much, frustratingly picking the wrong one from my shortlist, but that's the game. The trick is to not do that too often. I never ignore winners or losers as there's always something to learn, reflect on or ponder moving forwards - if only the form, how it may work out, who may be worth tracking etc. You can find my review notes down below.
But first...
Trainer Track Profiles Jumps 2021/2: Bangor
Before that... below you can access my unique 'Trainer Track Profile' for Bangor, taken from my draft report which is a work in progress, I hope to have all tracks complete by the time Chepstow kicks off next Friday.
For those long suffering readers on my email list, I compiled these reports for a handful of seasons a couple of years ago, before trying a different approach stats wise. However, I've returned to this format, slightly different and with any luck an improved version.
Trainers do target certain racecourses and with certain types of horses. That isn't a bad foundation to build from.
In essence it's a collection of trainer stats pointers for each UK winter jumps track. There's a template I've used as a guide.
In this version I've tried to find a 'micro systems' for each track - the qualifiers from which will be posted daily in the members' posts, the afternoon before. While I'll hope they work 'systematically', time will tell. But they should be useful and will highlight winners.
There are then various other stats pointers you can use in any way you please. They provide a decent 'way in' and starting point for shortlisting.
Sometimes it's hard to know where to look in this game and time is at a premium. In part that's why I now 'specialise' and stick to 2m7f+ jumps races. But using stats to shortlist can be useful also. These stats will hopefully help.
Do note:- - Stats go back 8 full years to the start of 2013, where available.
- Excluding the 'micro systems', the rest of the stats are for horses sent off 14/1 or shorter starting price. But there will be winners sent off bigger of course.
- For the handicap stats - these refer to all handicaps, unless stated. You get 'standard' handicaps and of course 'novice' handicaps, which are different, but the stats cover them all unless specified.
If you like using trainer stats with any luck it's a useful addition to your punting armoury.
There are a couple of 'qualifiers' against the 'micro systems'... - 1.10 Bangor – Tequila Blaze (m12) 11/4
- 3.10 Bangor – Zafar (micro 9) (20/1<) 3/1
And having had a quick flick through, a few runners hitting some of the other micro stats. These took less than 5 minutes to find. Remember, they are a 'way in' and are trainer stats angles, nothing to do with the ability of the horse or in today's conditions etc, but if you've time, some may be worth a closer look, for all I know what happens now! :) - 1.10 - Indian Glory 25/1, Italian Summer 12/1
- 1.40 - Lost In Montmartre 5/2
- 2.40 - Hill Of Hope 8/1 , Master Sunrise 12/1, For Jim 6/1
- 3.10 - Damut I'm Out 15/2
* As posted in my members' post...
Tip review... I never like losing but am much better at being wrong these days and channelling such disappointment more positively. (sort of!)
No issue with Wagner, sound logic and i’ve sided with the one with more proven winning chase form, who may handle the ground better if the rains arrived – which they did, but not in time. However, that wasn’t his excuse- I don’t think he stayed (and a further example that a point win doesn’t necessarily translate, annoyingly!), or his wind has caught him out again. I couldn’t back him over 3m after that, but he really should pop up over 2m4f again at some point, for all his form so far does have a ‘summer’ feel to it. Backing 3s SP shots at 6s is the way to do it, and essential to get to the promised land of profit, long term. He ran well for a long way, no excuse. He will win again.
Sadly the other steamer won it, Fergal’s. 13/2> 11/4. Not a shock, I was close but not close enough, in the end just a few too many niggles for me, but it was his first ever chase for Fergal, and first on a decent surface. That was the key, along with 3m. 0/8 chasing previously. Were he 8s/10s I may have been less amused. My race reading has improved plenty in the last year/18 months – I watched his last two hurdle runs back and thought they may well have been going a stride too quick for him, running well to a point but not having the gears when it quickened up, but he didn’t go backwards in either, galloping to the line. He simply couldn't go any quicker.
A change of tempo over 3m and a return to fences was always going to be worth a go, and he did beat a subsequent winner in his hurdles win three starts back. I knew all that, just made the wrong call. Sadly he did jump well, did stay, was well handicapped and the ground was fine! I had misplaced niggled over all of those points, and the general level of his form (also 0/6,1p above C5). Of course he had a ‘more to come’ profile which is best to assume with a 6YO at some point. A fine ride from a young jockey going places. (Liam Harrison is stealing his claim, keep him onside) Watching I rather hoped for my sanity the morning fav got up, but there we go. Someone out there may have had covering fire given the write up. I didn’t. That’s the game, but i’d rather be close to him than nowhere near. Had I left Wagner and he scooted home, that would have irritated me more. I don’t think i’m ever backing two in a race like that, but maybe something to work on there.
And picking another correct fav to oppose is always a positive, if you get those beat you’re automatically creating value elsewhere.
I’m not sure what that form is worth, but he was beating an unexposed chaser who hacked up the time before. Fergal could find something else weak enough in the next 2/3 weeks, and that running style/jumping will hold him in good stead. He wasn't stopping come the line and I'm not sure i'd want to oppose him next time out. He races prominently, he jumps, responds to pressure and just keeps galloping.
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That's all for today,
Best of luck with any bets as always,
Josh
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