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How I lost £2650 betting on horses, aged 18. What did I learn?
My Story…
Don’t worry, I’ll try not to bore you all to tears, but I suspect most of you reading this don’t know who I am, so I thought it may be useful to share a bit about me and my ‘journey’ within horse racing and betting. It didn’t start very well!
The story below includes 4 main learning points which I suppose are the foundation on which I’ve looked to build and improve.
Before I get onto that, a quick recap…
-If you missed it, your free Trainer Track Profiles report is HERE>>>
-I recorded a video explaining my thinking behind those stats and how I researched them in HorseRaceBase, that’s HERE>>>
485 of you have hit play so far, and I hope you found it useful. Only one of you has hit the dislike button so far! You can't please everyone :)
- getting in touch…well you can hit reply to any email I send, post a comment on the blog, or 'harass' me on Twitter HERE>>>, or Facebook HERE>> , if you so wish :)
With any luck you enjoying being on this free list moving forwards, as I like to think I send out plenty of quality free content (in normal times, 2-4 emails a week) that may interest you over time.
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Right, let me jump to it…
The boring bit… who am I? Well, I grew up in a small town called Mildenhall, 10 minutes or so up the road from Newmarket. I’m a Liverpool FC fan (don’t hold that against me, last night wasn’t much fun) thanks to the odd family member as well as a childhood desire to take on some of my close friends, who were United fans. When the time came to decide which University I should go to, there was only one city I was interested in heading, and even more so after I visited the place. That was 2007 and as I write to you now, I still haven’t left.
My interest in racing didn’t develop until I was 18 (i'm now 29, 30 creeps closer) and headed to Aintree for the first time, in October 2007. Monet’s Garden was strutting his stuff (RIP old boy) and a young Kauto Star would chase him home that year.
None of my immediate family are into the horses, so I’m thankful for that first trip to the races, as it got me hooked.
Now the fun bit...losing £2650…
At that time my first interest was betting and more so ‘gambling’ (which is what I determine as uneducated betting. I didn’t know what I was doing).
What drives me now isn’t just wining money but a passion for the sport, the animals and the people. And solving the puzzle.
Back then it was all about greed and a quick fix. I was naïve and foolish.
With eyes fixated on winning thousands, I googled a tipping service, got sent a glossy brochure and parted with £650 or so for full access to tips for 12 months. I thought that was a reasonable price at the time. Gulp.
I dived in betting £20 per point and over the next 8 months would blow a 100 point bank. I always thought it would turn around if I stuck with it. It never did.
What with the sign up fee that was a -£2650 dent in the funds. Nearly two overdrafts maxed out and I wouldn’t climb out of those for a good 4 years. Brilliant. Painful. Don’t do that. My friends don't let me forget!
From that point on I decided to buck up my ideas and educate myself about the sport, putting my brain to some use. I mean I didn’t have any money to bet with. It wasn’t long before I got the proper bug for the game.
I stumbled across a few decent people in the blogging world, some of whom will have invited you to get hold of my free guide! : )
I remember reading Nick Mordin’s ‘Betting for a Living’ which is a timeless classic and I learnt plenty from that, and it’s still useful now. (I’ll send out a blog post nearer Christmas focused on racing books, there are a few decent ones and you good readers usually chip in with your thoughts. We are a community after all)
From that point on I’ve been on a journey, trying to improve every year.
I started my racing blog in late 2013 and from there it’s grown. From that pitiful low (I got what I deserved) I’ve learnt plenty along the way, and if you’ll indulge me for a moment I’ll try and summarise as best I can…
1. After a few years I realised it is possible to win betting on the horses long term. I’d like to think I’m proof of that. Not many do it would seem. Most estimates are that around 1-3% of punters win long term. It’s not easy. Denise Coates’ pay packet would tell you that. And you must take a long-term view.
2. I think a proper interest in the sport is important - in the animals, the people, the challenge and the puzzle. I think that’s what gets me through the low moments and those long losing runs that we all have from time to time. That buzz when you watch an old replay of Denman winning the Hennessy for the second time off top weight, as an example. Or is that just me?! :) I’m also lucky to have a couple of shares in horses with Amy Murphy, which has been a thrill and has forged a closer bond with the horses.
3. The importance of starting small and betting what you can afford to lose. Clearly I shouldn’t have dived in with £20 bets all those years ago but of course I never expected to lose a 100 point bank. Always be prepared to lose your bank and set your stakes accordingly. I learnt that the hard way. From that point on I’d spend a good while betting £2.50s, 5s, and progressing from there. It took time and you can’t rush it. The sport has to be fun, and that’s linked to betting what you’re happy to lose, in a worst case.
4. The MATHS! Now, I’m a history/politics graduate and I have a basic maths brain. Maybe that’s why I prefer trainer behaviour and trends. You don’t need to be Einstein to be a very successful recreational punter and you don't need to produce your own 'tissues'. BUT… and this is important… It’s a mathematical reality that to win long term you need to back horses which have a better chance than the market implies. This is the so called ‘value’ discussion which I won’t have here but it’s imperative to be trying to find horses that are bigger odds than you think they should be – that are overpriced against their chance in your eyes. That’s the key to long term success.
Of course, it’s easier said than done and there is always room for improvement. Long term isn’t today, tomorrow, next month or even the next year. It took me a couple of years to grasp that important lesson and move away from just trying to find ‘winners’. It's a game of price.
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I’d probably say those are the four main lessons which have given me a better foundation and mindset with which to attack this great sport, and have given me a springboard to be successful.
Many of you reading this will be successful punters no doubt, and may have learnt those lessons a long time ago. Or you may think they’re all tosh!
But, understanding those four points has helped me immeasurably. I’ve never enjoyed the sport or the challenge more.
Later in the week I’ll discuss how I’ve put what I’ve learnt into practice, the keys to my punting success and how I’ve helped others. I’m proudest of the community of punters that I’ve built, all sharing in each other’s success.
No doubt you’ve guessed by now that a large chunk of my betting is trainer stats based and I rely on a portfolio of strategies (all mainly linked to the free stats report above). But I also like attacking a race cold and challenging myself, usually in top quality big-field jumps handicaps.
I started the free blog by looking at handicap chases over 3 miles or further. Every c2/G3 handicap chase I look at can be found on the free posts. I’m a big believer in providing what I hope is quality free content.
On Saturday I plan to attack The Hennessy (or the Ladbrokes Trophy as it is now) and will email out a link to my preview.
The free tips (all mainly high class handicap chases) are on +209.5 points since the start of 2016, at around a 50% return on investment. All mainly 1 point win.
A decent +£1047.50 to £5 bets (a sensible starting point!)
This year i've been lucky enough to land on The Irish National and Scottish National winners at 33s and 40s. I do like a big price. :)
So, do look out for that. If nothing else you may enjoy the write ups and any comments from fellow readers.
For now, I’ll leave you to get on with your day.
I hope you found some of that interesting and maybe you can relate to parts of it.
This can be an unforgiving game at times but the highs can’t be matched for me.
In a few days time I’ll share some ‘proof’ of my success and some positive words from my band of loyal followers. Some of you may enjoy what I have to share and my unique approach to this great game of ours.
But before that I’ll be back in touch on Saturday with the Hennessy preview, and I’ll throw in some other freebies you may also enjoy.
As always, take care and thanks for your time,
Josh
p.s you can find my blog HERE>>>. Do bookmark it. If you want something to flick through the 'Free Reports/Systems' tab may be of interest. That's where you can also find a new free fortnightly guest post from track-side pro punter Adam Norman. His 'Little Black Book' is a great read, and they can be found HERE>>> | 