Hello Friend

I hope you're having a good week so far.

The first 'April Trainer' qualifier goes today, Inca Rose 6/1 in the 4pm Southwell. It will be interesting to see how she goes. 0/7,4p in her career so far, first run after a wind op/in 95 days, maybe that has transformed her. The yard are in form, falling mark also. We shall see, looks a competitive little contest.

The Grand National

Below you can find my stats and trends pointers for the big race. I've only gone back to 2013, the year the fences were modified. I'll be using these to create a trends shortlist and we shall see if it helps. It has in many races this season.

I am up in Liverpool tomorrow for six days, including all three at Aintree. I can't wait to get back to the city where I spent 13 happy years although typically it's not going to be the warmest/direst week. It will good to get back to Aintree and catch up with all the usual faces.

Anyway, I hope the below may help...

Saturday 5.15 – The Grand National

8/316, 32p (since fences modified in 2013)

8/8 2^nd or 3^rd in weights, (exc claims), or 11^th or lower (but not bottom) (were not: 0/89, 5p)

8/8 had 1-5 places (inc wins) in handicap chases (did not: 0/121, 6p)

• 8/8 had 1-8 places (inc wins) in handicaps (did not: 0/82, 5p)

8/8 had run at Grade 1 or 2 in career (had not: 0/45, 3p)

8/8 had 3+ runs in last 365 days (had not: 0/50, 3p)

8/8 had 17+ career runs (had not: 0/60, 5p)

8/8 had 10+ chase runs (had not: 0/57, 5p)

• 8/8 had 10-23 chase runs (did not: 0/103, 8p)

8/8 had 3+ runs this season (2< : 0/71, 4p)

• 5/8 had 3 or 4 runs

• 3/8 had 7+ runs

• 2< : 0/71, 4p; 5 or 6: 0/80, 6p

8/8 ran left handed LTO (RH: 0/86, 7p)

7/8 been ridden by today’s jockey at least twice (had not: 1/123, 10p)

• 6/8 ridden 2-7 times previously (6/118, 13p)

7/8 had 9< runs in handicap chases (10+ : 1/120, 10p)

7/8 had 2-5 runs at Grade 3 level (0-1: 1/72, 5p; 6+ : 0/64, 5p)

7/8 had at least 13 runs going left handed (12< : 1/137, 14p, last year’s winner)

7/8 had 1-3 handicap chase wins (0: 1/87, 5p; 4+ : 0/47, 5p)

6/8 origin of horse IRE (6/195, 22p)

• GB: 1/33,2p

• FR: 1/83, 7p

6/8 carried 10-13 or less (11-00+ : 2/82, 7p)

6/8 had won at least once last three starts (had not: 2/183, 15p)

6/8 had 3-8 runs in handicaps (6/103, 14p)

Other

• Horse had x4 chase wins only: 0/70, 2p

• Horse PU LTO: 0/46, 3p

• Horse ran 46-60 days ago: 0/50, 5p

Trainers (13 years)

• G Elliott: 2/26, 4p

• X1: O Sherwood, Henry De Bromhead, V Williams, Jonjo O’Neill, P Nicholls, L Russell, D McCain, M Morris, D Pipe, Dr Newland, S Smith

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That's all for today's email,

All the best,

Josh