Hello Friend
No luck in the Highland National but no excuse. Onderun got an easy lead as expected but got beat into third after the last, the winner being very unexposed but in truth my pin was nowhere near him! Always something to work on. The other one is still running.
Today we have the jumps season finale at Sandown.
TIPS
3.35 Sandown
Sugar Baron - 1 point win - 14/1 (gen)
Regal Encore - 1 point win - 18/1 (gen)
Relentless Dreamer - 1 point win - 33/1 (gen)
Domesday Book - 1 point win - 50/1 (gen) (70.00 BF exchange)
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The final big 'festival type' handicap chase of the season... i'm attempting to add to recent handicap hncp chase winners since day 1 of 'The ' Festival, inc Close Brothers Novice 9s/Kim Muir 12s/Midlands National 25s/Irish National 33s /Topham Chase 16s/Scottish National 40s /Puch Lady Francis Mares Chase 8s / + about 7 C2+ hncp chases I haven't found winner of in that time :)
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My long list... the four selections.. Step Back (too short) / Rock The Kasbah (too short given form/beat in this before) / Missed Approach (too short/RH/Class/hncp mark a question) / and the two Tizzard horses which are lurkers, Theatre Guide (beat in this twice,can't see why would win now given current form etc) Royal Vacation (don't think he really stays 3m, had doubts, form iffy but run over hurdles last twice which is intriguing)
I probably haven't mentioned the winner! This race has a very odd feel where nothing would totally surprise me...you'd look post race and go, yep, I can make a case for him!
some stats...
10/10 had RUN over 3m2.5f or further in career. 8/1o had 0-2 handicap wins. Those stats leave 8/84 runners, 24p and leave...
BlackLion / Missed Approach / Bigbadjohn/ Sugar Baron / Rathin Rose / Domesday Book / Theatre Guide
Those that ran 4m3.5f+ LTO are 0/28,2p (The Grand National I think), and 8/10 ran 3m-3m2f LTO. Running 11-15 days ago is also a negative. Applying those would leave a tentative stats shortlist of 4:
Missed Approach / Sugar Baron / Domesday Book / Theatre Guide
I am running out of time this morning, should have got up at 7 and not 8, what with plenty of action in the Members' post also. I spent a good hour and a half staring at this and my pins landed on these four.
Sugar Baron...well he is on the stats shortlist above and he rarely runs a bad race here... I tipped him at Cheltenham which was a risk and on the soft ground he was never at the races - he can jump 'like a piano' at times! Nico has raced him more prominently around here before and I hope they do so again. IF he can hold a position and he jumps well (two big big IFs) he won't be far away at the death here and will be staying on up the hill. There is a chance they go quick enough here and some may fall in a hole. At 14s, I just couldn't leave him. One last go. (i think I tipped him in last year's Scottish National also, so, i'll be at the bottom of the cliff after this race if he doesn't win)
Domesday Book..well he's had a tendon injury, and comes here after a monster lay-off. He will probably need the run, he may not be good enough....but he races prominently, is a Festival winner, and is still lightly raced. And he was 50s - given his place on the stats shortlist above I wasn't going to over-think that really! It is a hopeful pick but I just hope they have him as fit as possible, as he will give me a good spin if so...and provided he is over that injury, it is very hard to come back from 'a leg' as they call it in the trade! (so i've heard)
Regal Encore... he is best right handed and I want to see him over this distance. He ran a cracker in the 'Hennessy' and if he were to repeat that run he would be right in the mix here. He could win, he could be tailed off after 4 fences, who knows! But he has a touch of class at his best and this race could set up for him. Richie can ride him prominently and if he could get a position on the inside, popping away ,and he isn't too far back at the Pond fence, i'm fairly sure he will stay on up this hill. He does find for pressure when on a going day, and maybe some compensation awaits for having to miss the Grand National (i think his blood was wrong, but not 100%) - it could be a blessing in disguise.
Relentless Dreamer...maybe I am in dreamland, sticking with the same trainer/jockey combo that did so well for us last week in the big one. Right handed/good ground appears to be his thing and he has run the odd race over an extended trip. He can race prominently and I just wanted to see what he could do going RH/Good to Soft/3m4f+... that combination 'could' see him build on previous chase efforts and leave behind what he has done in the past, which is still decent anyway. It could be that this track also suits him. Hopefully he can nab a prominent position, get into a rhythm and gallop...we shall see turning for home if he a) has the class and b) has the stamina. At a price I thought he looked interesting.
I did note, that in the last 7 renewals of this, 7 horses have returned after 60+ days off... 4 of them have placed and gone very close to winning. No doubt there will be some crappy stats flying about around 'no horse has won this after more than X days off' - well, they mean nothing without the context of how many runners/placed horses...and 0/7,4p in the last 7 years...well, there is no reason to be put off there! (and trainers in recent years are much more adept at readying horses at home than they were 10 years ago, and are more willing to do so before a big race target)
There is every chance that i haven't mentioned the winner, we all know that! I looked at Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation but talked myself out of them...I may have £2.50 on each at BFSP to claw something back just in case- those are the two at prices I would find most annoying were one to bounce back to life here. The former has had a couple of goes in this race and I convinced myself that the latter won't stay.
I can live with any horse winning this under/around 10/1 really...this felt a very strange renewal and I wanted some at prices onside. Step Back has the most facinating profile in this by some way but it is quite the step up from his C4 race around Fakenham LTO and I wanted to see some 26f form at that price. The run before that here was ok. But he is interesting and one to track moving forward as he 'could be anything' - he brings something different to the table here, given he is up against plenty of old/tired/seemingly out of form warriors. Minella Daddy is interesting for last year's winning trainer- I wasn't convinced on stamina in context of price, but if he stays he will go close...in theory if Regal Encore runs his race these two should be side by side! Rock The Kasbah- didn't seem to stay in this last year and comes here on the back of a P, and 98 days off...ok if 20s+ maybe, not at 10s/11s for me.
I could go through them all, but I won't. Any horse could win this and I wouldn't be in total shock in truth! Something will bounce back to life on this decent ground and whatever wins I will look back after the race and muse 'well, I could have found him'! (but then I do that with every winner of races I tip in that are a 'value' price! It's the only way to progress)
GL with any bets.
Josh
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