Hello Friend
I hope you're having a great week and are looking forward to the weekend. It's been fairly quiet on the free posts this week, although the Punchy trainer pointers I put up yesterday, from the members' post, found a handful of decent priced winners/placed horses. And i'm still on a high from thee 40/1 Scottish National winner.
Today I've taken a look at the Highland National. I appear to have a decent enough record in all sorts of 'Nationals' but i'm not sure i've ever tipped the winner of this one. I'm in the form of my life at the moment, (+190 points in 46 days) so with any luck I can end that hoodoo with one of the following...
TIPS
3.45 Perth
Onderun - 1 point win - 10/1 (gen)
Lowanbehold - 1 point win - 12/1 (gen)
These are the only two horses in here whose prices seems a bit off to me- 10s seems generous for Onderun, especially given that he bolted up LTO, comes here fit, in good form, jumps for fun (well he did the last day) and races on the pace. I thought that was a shade too big. Formerly with Emma Lavelle he bounced back to form LTO for new connections. The Bewley's had been in the doldrums for an age - months and months without a winner, nothing running well. I suspect they'd had virus issue or something was up. They are going better now. This one got better the further he went LTO. He has won off a mark of 107 before, and gone close off 115. Jumping and stamina can matter more than handicap marks in tests like this. It is an educated guess as to whether he stays, but his staying on run at Plumpton over 28f and other bits and pieces would give some hope. I expect JB to bounce him out in front and from the pace maps I can see he could get an easy lead. In any case he will be front rank. My instinct was that 10s was well worth a play here. He has the class for this level and if he jumps as he did LTO, he could be the one they have to catch. He finished the last day strongly, so i'd like to think this 10 day return is ok. There is a chance he bombs out but I suspect he may be bouncing again and connections want to make hay, while the Perth sun is shining. (or not, I think they are due rain!)
Lowanbehold...well he hasn't really done anything wrong and 12/1 seems a tad harsh to my eyes. He generally tries and is consistent. He also relishes a marathon test it would seem and comes here fit and in form. He stayed on dourly at Hexam over 4m in November and stamina won him the race LTO. This looks an ideal test for him and if he can get a prominent position and hold it, he will keep finding/galloping on. I'd worry about him on decent ground around here but this should be ok. There is a chance he gets outpaced, even over this trip, which will then lead to errors, but that is built into the price. Worth a dabble at those odds.
Of the rest, well i'll just mention Ballymalin.... who could win this well and maybe worth a saver but 7/2 felt about right. He is usually help up and had a hard race LTO. He may have had enough time off though to recover and the trainer's horses are going well here this week. He does have to lug around 11-12 and i'm sure he isn't the biggest. He has an obvious chance on that last run and the odds compilers haven't missed it. Oh and top weights, 11-12, are 0/22,3p in this, so he has that against him.
I was happy to leave everything else. Itstimeforapint stays and stays, if this turns into a proper slog, but he can get outpaced, is inconsistent, and does have a question about his ability at C3, albeit the odd decent placed effort. If he can hold a position, and is evidently travelling well, he may do for me, but i prefer the two tipped...these three are the most interesting at the odds.
That's the lot for today,
GL with any bets,
Josh
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