Good Morning, Friend,
A couple things for you today, including my free 'Trainer Track Profiles' Jumps report Part 1 and some Cambridgeshire Trends.
But first... Perth & Nigel Twiston Davies...
Micro Angle... having said I couldn't find anything for 'Twister Season', I did have another dive in after his two winners...
77 bets / 25 wins / 45p / 32% sr / +52 SP / +69 BFSP / AE 1.54
It was a relief to flag a winner, Wasdell Dundalk, who made 5/2 look rather generous winning on the bridle. The race fell apart somewhat but no doubt he was in charge when the carnage unfolded. Things will get tougher for him now but it will be interesting to see how long he can keep performing for Lisa Harrison. He jumps well, Carlisle could suit him, but he's been transformed for a yard move, time and 3m. I got the weather wrong - well, I hadn't clocked they'd be so much rain, I'm sure that wasn't flagged on the morning Clerk update via BHA site, but maybe an error on my part! The other two of hers I flagged appeared to hate it, yes they'd handled 'summer soft', but yesterday turned into a winter bog and plenty didn't handle it, including those two. Darn.
Lucinda Russell is in form, and again, like Twister, has them ready on seasonal return if desired, and if the horse has the constitution to be readied early.
I hope you absorbed the other Twister micro and ignored my subjective 'value' assessment! He made 3s look massive, but easy to say after of course, for all no shock given his profile and that of the rest. Big Nige was 2/2 on the day, his first two winter runners of the season, and they're clearly fit if so desired, and in form. Both those horses had evidently done well for the summer and given time to strengthen up and mature. The final winner ran in Nigel's colours, and it makes sense to get those performing early on, as he'll want a new owner for them if he can find one, for all I think young Willie (now assisstant) likes to keep the odd one as a project.
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Trainer Track Profiles 2023/4
It's back, and you can read your free copy HERE >>>
This version just focusses on handicap hurdles, with handicap chasers to follow for any Members Club trialists (a job for the next day or two, 8-10 hours to squeeze in)
Hopefully it's all self explanatory, but any questions, you know where to find me!
As always a main thrust of what I do is to try and do some of the heavy lifting to help save you time, while providing some quality 'starting points' or shortlists for you to attack and in which to make your own punting decisions, which is what the majority of you on my list most enjoy, rather than 'just' being given a horse to back, for all there's a place for that of course!
These angles should give you a ready made daily shortlist to ponder. Once I've completed the Chase research, I will go through and work out which angles to save, (possibly all of them) and I'll be posting the 'daily qualifiers' in the Members' posts, the afternoon before the next day's racing. (Tues-Sat)
With any luck it helps you find a few more winners this jumps season...
Click HERE to read my new TTP Report >>>
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Saturday's Big Race Trends
Talking of pointers to help you find your own winners, a look at The Cambridgeshire Handicap below. HorseRaceBase hasn't updated with Saturday's card's as yet, so I can't 'apply' the trends, but I'll fire out a shortlist/trainer pointers at some point tomorrow. But for those of you who like to get cracking...
Newmarket – The Cambridgeshire
15/465, 60p
15/15 aged 3-6 (7+ : 0/45, 5p)
15/15 ran in a ‘non major’ or Group 2 last start (Group 3/Listed: 0/55, 2p)
14/15 had 3-8 runs this season (UK/IRE) (had not: 1/109, 6p) (9+ runs: 0/55,3p)
14/15 ridden by today’s jockey 0-3 races prev in career (4+ : 1/105, 7p)
14/15 carried 9-5 of less (inc any claims) (9-6+ : 1/58,4p)
14/15 running at same class as last start or up 1 class (were not: 1/71,3p)
14/15 ran in a handicap last start (non-hncp: 1/91,4p)
14/15 had yet to run beyond 1m4f in career (had: 1/63, 7p)
13/15 had never won at track (had: 2/88, 14p)
13/15 ran over 1m or 1m2f on last start
13/15 finished Top 6 last start (7th> : 2/132, 12p)
Other
Horse wore tongue tie: 0/26,0p
Top Weights (inc joint): 0/20,0p
Horse making handicap debut: 0/18,0p
Trainers
J Gosden: 3/21, 3p
M Tregoning: 2/10,3p
X1: P Cole, M Wigham, H Morrison, M Meade, I Mohammed, S B Suroor, M Channon, T Tate, B Meehan, R Fahey
0: R Varian (0/10,0p); A Balding (0/19,4p); M Johnston (0/19,1p); D O’Meara (0/14,0p); W Haggas (0/20,2p)
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I think that's all for today! Sadly Perth has been rained off so no potentials there and I haven't bothered with any flat cards today. I will look at the big handicap above for Sat, eeek, and Worcester has a couple of ok races tomorrow, i'll see if any 'horses of interest.
In the meantime, don't forget to flick through my Trainer Track Profiles report HERE >>>
All the best,
Josh
