Good Morning, Friend,
To Perth...
But before those musings, don't forget to grab your discount for Paul Ferguson's excellent National Hunt Bible. I should add, I'm not getting anything financially for this 'promotion', it's just a great book, produced by a top fella, and some value for you loyal readers. In saying that, they have sent me x4 copies in the post, x3 of which i'll use as prizes for a few members club 'tipping competitions' in the next couple of months. All good fun.
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Perth Musings...
2.55 - Dalileo - 8/1 EW (with a micro for Nigel Twiston Davies...)
4.05 - Malangen - 5/1 EW
4.40 - Wasdell Dundalk - 5/2
Three horses for a bit of jumps interest and I'm hoping Lisa Harrison has a good day, who by all accounts wouldn't be the most prolific of trainers but at least the horses all arrive in form and like it around here. I haven't ventured into the C5s, where she also has a few runners, and we know what happens now, but some races at that level give me even more of a headache and I didn't wish to wade in.
2.55 -
Before I mention Dalileo, something of use for the season whatever those three above do today. Nigel Twiston Davies has the fav in here, 3/1, handicap hurdle debut, and he's the one horse who could just be better treated than these, be much better in a few runs time, and win well enough. That may depend on how ready he is, and 'Twister Season' hasn't been reliable at all in the last couple of years, maybe a different approach taken to Sept/Oct but I could find no angles of note for the yard at this time of year, having been a cash-cow 4-7 seasons ago, but maybe the market has long cottoned on, at last.
Anyway... I thought his was short enough today and I've looked for an EW stab, 3p (hopefully no NRs), however...
Nigel Twiston-Davies/ All Handicap Hurdles (inc novice hncps) / Horse making handicap hurdle debut / Sam Twiston-Davies riding / 15/2 or shorter SP / 2010...
79 bets / 27 wins / 38p / 34% sr / +47 SP / +61 BFSP / AE 1.78
x7 of those winners have come since start of 2021, and if you dived deeper and just focussed on the qualifiers in December, Jan, Feb, March...
47 bets / 21 wins / 28p / 45% sr / +56 SP / +66 BFSP / AE 2.34 (2021> 7/13,10p)
With any luck that angle continues to pay over time, I've saved it in my HRB account and will flag the qualifiers on the blog as the season goes on.
Uncle Bert hits the general angle today, and if he's a1, you'd think will be bang there. If there are any chinks...
I thought Dalileo may give him something to think about and would hopefully be 'best of the rest'. I thought 8s a bit generous here. Trainer/jockey are in form, 1/5,2p last 30 days, and McMenamin is 3/14,6p on all of Lisa's Perth runners, those winners in recent weeks.
Of some interest, 2 of Dalileo's 3 wins have come in September, and he's a CD winner for Shark Hanlon a couple of seasons ago off an 8lb higher mark. He followed that up by chasing home Goal Lil off 109 and I think this mark is workable. What interested me is that this is his first go over 20f, and over this CD, for Lisa, having tried 3m for the most part and not looking the strongest of stayers late on, and then dropping back to 16f on his last start, here in soft, where he was outpaced but plugged on. Now he returns to 20f, at Perth, in soft, fit, in form, well handicapped - if he's to win again, I thought it could well be over this CD, which may be his optimum. He's bumped into a few subsequent winners also a couple of times and has been clear of the rest of the field. I'm hoping he gives Uncle Bert something to think about here, who may well have more class from 2 out, but we shall see. It's his first run at the track and I don't know if Twister has them firing after a break as yet. This will tell us more.
4.05 - Malangen -
5/1 looked a shade overpriced here to my eyes and I'm hoping an EW bet to nothing, more fool me! He's hardly run a bad race on his last five starts, including two wins here, which were both on soft, and he did it fairly comfortably come the line last start, overhauling the runaway leader with the rest stuffed. Some of his previous form reads well also, esp bumping into Born Famous a few starts back, who was lobbed in, but he nearly beat him. He just looks likely to run his race and will hopefully get an aggressive ride over this trip, as he either needs a strong pace over 16f (not guaranteed here) or he needs to make it a test himself. I thought he set a decent handicapping standard for the others to match.
He's this price because there are two with sexier profiles above him, Irish raiders, who are lightly raced, and will no doubt bound clear and leave this lot flailing. However, I'm not sure as to what their form is worth as yet and I wanted to oppose. They're not penalty kicks and Malangen, IF running his race with all the usual caveats, should give them something to think about.
4.40 - Wasdell Dundalk -
I'll mention him as if I was going track-side with 'I want winners' eyes, I'd flag him in a 'Through the Card', for all my head tells me 5/2 is about right, and isn't value, for all a small field. here. McMenamin is on again, and he's actually 2/5,3p on Lisa's chasers here, those two wins on this lad. He's still well handicapped on old form for Jonjo O'Neill but comes here in fine form, fit, having won comfortably enough the last twice, travelling well, jumping well, looking progressive as a chaser and unexposed over 3m. Again, I thought he set a decent bar here, given his well being, course form, jumping, fitness, and still well handicapped. Born Famous has to prove a mark of 130 is workable still, having moved back to her previous owner/trainer, having been leased to Iain Jardine, who had a fine run with her. The plan is to breed at some point, maybe when this year is out. A fine mare who could outclass these but just whether well handicapped still, and can keep in touch around here.
There should be more to come from Haute Estime this season, fitness to prove but has won on seasonal debut, Lucinda in ok form, but will need to be a1 here on return, to jump well and with stamina to prove, which she may. Wasdell is the solid one - but it's that time of year, those 'summer' horses vs the returning 'winter' jumpers. Still, I thought Wasdell the one to beat.
In 'Perth' seasons to come, it will be interesting to see if Lisa uses Danny M more, who's developing into a fine jockey on the northern circuit, maybe a combo to watch, esp when his boss Nicky Richard's doesn't require his services.
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As always,dDo with those musings as you please! You may think i'm talking tosh, don't like the price, now like Twister's horse even more, and so on!
Tomorrow I'll send out my 'Trainer Track Profiles' Hurdles report, and start to flesh out my plans for the return of my 'Members Club', which all being well I'll open the doors to on Sunday, and if i'm behind schedule, Tuesday! Of course it will include a cheap 'trial', likely 21 days or so.
Thanks to the 50 or so of you who've said 'hello' on Telegram, it's always great to connect, and the 'members club' will include a private chat group for members, which I'm pretty sure will soon will add plenty to all of our racing experience this winter. You can find me with the username: @RTPJosh
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That's all for today, as always, thanks for reading,
Josh
