Good Morning Friend

Below you can find today's members' tip and full preview. No doubt the poor sod is now cursed, as is usually the way when I email out, but never mind. I'm chasing a hat-trick of winners and we shall see today's selection reads the script. 

As always there's a full write up/preview. I don't like 'spoon feeding' tips, that's not good for anyone. You get to see my full workings and the method to my madness. I'm also always trying to improve my race reading/betting ability and you may well pick things up in these write ups also. Well, there's usually a trainer micro/stat or two to note down also. 

Let's crack on...

#1 – 2.18 Worc – Wagner – 1 point win -13/2 (888) 6/1 (gen)

Tip write up…

A fascinating contest here, a C4 novice handicap chase. I don’t like diving into these ‘novice’ handicaps too often but everything’s had a recent run and there are no ‘winter’ horses making a return/chase debut, which reduces the educated ‘guessing’ element in races like this. And most of them have raced a fair few times over fences, only Shinobi making chase debut.

Hopefully I can get a tune out of today’s selection and he’s composed in the finish… 

I'll get my coat.

Wagner – I think he’s the overpriced one in this line up at 6s. It’s the 9th run of his life and just his 6th chase (1/5, 2p) and there must be a bit more to come from this former point winner. He ran LTO as if he may have needed it a tad, first start 102 days, and he doesn’t have a bombproof record fresh. I also thought that if the rains do arrive an hour before this race, which they may do, he would handle cut/softer ground better than anything else in here. He’s a prominent racer who may well try and make all and LTO was the best he’s jumped, for all he’s been solid on recent starts.

He’s ‘doing a few things different’ also, as a reason for another jolt of improvement. There’s the second run after a break, combined with moving up in trip. He’s tried 2m7f/3m once before over fences around Taunton last season, but that was in proper heavy – he’s a horse that’s had problems with his wind, and proper testing may not be ideal, soft fine. Also, he is 0/4, 1p going RH, 2/4,3p LH, and there could be something in that. In any case, he’s been in solid form this season since his last wind op before his return in May.

The horse also gets 1st time CP, which could sharpen him up even more. I haven’t spotted an attitude problem but maybe they think he could focus more at times, I’m not sure. In any case AJH knows when to apply 1st time CP or Blinkers… 8/40, 12p +42 SP in all handicaps, 6/17,6p +27 BFSP when over 24-26f.

Ben Godfrey, the stable conditional, jumps on for the first time also. That poses some sort of question I suppose but built into his price. I’d be surprised if he hasn’t schooled him at home. But his 5lb could be handy and ‘technically’ takes him 2lb below his last win two starts ago -for all that Rex is probably a 5lb+ better rider over fences at the moment and it’s never wise to just subtract a claim and assume they’re well handicapped off X – jockeys claim for a reason, because they’re still learning/are not pros yet. Still, in the last year Trainer/Jockey are 10/28, 17p +11 SP together and AJH clearly knows when to use his claim and maybe is holding him back now in handicaps for that very purpose. So, his booking could well be a sign of intent.

The trainer… you could make a case that he’s the best trainer of a chaser in the race – well, in the last two years all of his chasers are 20/92, 35p, +24 SP. More than solid. He places them well and knows the time of day better than most. If he wasn’t all the way down in Dorset i’d be more tempted to have horses with him when the RTP Syndicate empire grows in time.

With chasers aged 6, in the last 5 years, 15/49, 26p, 31% sr, +37 SP. A micro to keep onside.

There’s one piece left of the jigsaw, the horse’s actual form/class – he has the profile of one still open to improvement and may do so for the step up in trip/second run back after a break. He may not stay of course, but he did win a point and if he was ‘proven’ over 3m, he wouldn’t be 6s. The price allows that play.

But… will he be good enough. Well LTO he bumped into a Tizzard chaser making chase debut who was clearly lobbed in off 93 (best to assume a Tizzard horse going chasing is chucked in until proven otherwise, whatever the hurdle form, good to see them back firing in the winners), for all Wagner may well have needed it a tad. Two starts back on 27th May he won here in a C4 over 20f off 3lb lower, no claimer that day, posting an RPR 121. (his last x3 RPRs 124, 121, 124 LTO, so consistent, and indicating his mark is workable). He beat Delight of Dubai in that race, who’s since improved for stepping up in trip, winning twice, but he still gets 9lb from her today. That will mean sod all if Wagner doesn’t stay of course, but he shapes as if well worth a go- all he was doing was staying on in that win. And he wasn’t stopping the run before that either, again may have needed it a shade, but it wasn’t a bad race and the winner has gone in again.

So, plenty of positives I think. He should race up there, in a no excuses position, and a drop of rain may help his cause, as it would blunt some of the others. He has more chases in him, hopefully this one. Whatever he does here, one to note. 

Of the rest…

I did stare at Kabrit for a time last night, 7s across the board. That may have tempted me in but 9/2 can’t, as I think that’s probably what he should be. 7s allowed me to possibly forgive a few niggles – well, he’s usually ridden very cold, has to come through horses, his jumping has been scrappy at times, I'm not sure he can be in front too soon/tricky, he may not want any rain and is he just a class 5 animal? Reading that back, maybe 7s wasn’t big enough! Still, he’s fit, in form and should run his race. And I do think this mark of 110 is workable. He takes a drop in class having been ‘running on’ LTO. They were all getting stuffed by Shoal Bay, who’d have been a nice 7/1 winner for us had the saddle not slipped. But still, it was a decent effort, he’s a solid horse, as is Quartz Du Rheu who’s unexposed – he’d run Haul Away close at Warwick a few days ago, front two clear. I suppose his Bangor run is a bit off putting, certainly at 9/2, didn’t jump well, maybe the course too tight. His two C5 wins before that were decent but the form isn’t worth much. I’d have had a dilemma at 7s, but at 9/2, especially given the running style, it is a comfortable leave and if i’ve got the morning value judgement wrong, so be it. Wagner has a bit more about him on paper, and he will have track position on him.

Those were the two at the odds I pondered most I think, although…

Coral is interesting… he is 0/8 chasing, including 4 in France, where he didn’t run too badly in a few chases aged 4, including 7l behind Saint Sonnet, who could have a big season for Nicholls now he’s no doubt acclimatised/matured. Or maybe he will just be disappointing again/is a talking horse. In any case, his recent runs are his level I think, i’m not sure he’s a 115-120 horse but I could be wrong. He’s been running well, winning a C5 over 20f here three starts back. Has C4 found him out the last twice, and/or has it all happened a bit too quickly in that class over that 20f? – possibly. As such a return to chasing and the step up in trip is interesting – doing something different as a reason for improvement, and he’s technically still unexposed, and he’s only 6. It’s his first chase for Fergal also but he does have the odd question now. How will he jump? I’m also on the fence as to whether he’s well handicapped or not, has the class for this race, and/or will have enough in hand. And I don’t think he will want any rani, if it comes. It could well not, but plenty forecast for the afternoon, maybe it will fall after this race. And, I’m not sure on his stamina! No point win and never tried it, he could relish it of course. So, a few unknowns. I certainly wouldn’t put you off at 13/2 if you like him, that’s never my job, but I preferred Wagner. I suppose his profile is arguably a bit more interesting than Kabrit’s, but he’s more proven as a chaser so far.

Of course, they may well all be chasing home Frau Georgia of course. The problem with her is that the form is hard to weigh up. She’s beat a pile of dross LTO, 85/90 horses, a couple in behind have run since and haven’t really franked it. Visually it couldn’t have been more impressive, she couldn’t have done much more and on some time figures the performance reads as well as what some of these have been doing recently. Still, this looks more competitive and she will have to properly race more in the latter stages, rather than sauntering home. That will really put her stamina to the test, her legs should have to quicker for longer. 

There is also a question, and only that, over going Left Handed – this her 21st career run, 0/8, 2p LH, 2/12,4p RH – maybe there’s nothing in that, but it’s still a question. I thought her jumping looked straight/fine at Perth, she jumped well. Softer ground would be a question also, if the rains came. I also don’t know where that form came from, they must have found a niggle/fixed something at home or changed routine. Although Mulholland did have a cloud over the yard last season I think, dodgy hay from memory/virus, and that’s always worth remembering when trying to forgive some poor runs etc, and means he could have a few well handicapped beats this season. I haven’t been scared enough at 5/2 to leave this race. I couldn’t back her at that price, but clearly no shock if she won again. She is well handicapped I think but this is so much deeper than LTO. Average OR of 111 today, (and x3 118+ horses), average for her win, OR 98.

If she takes it and a few of the others clearly run their race, then fair play. I could leave at her price, and I wanted to oppose. We shall see how wise that proves to be!

I could leave Clever As a Fox and Shinobi. The former hasn’t done much for 4/5 starts now and is clearly hard to train given the rest patterns, usually struggling to get more than two runs back to back before a break. He has ability and is well handicapped on some ok hurdles form – if he could transfer that to fences in a race of this nature, he’d go very close. But there’s just not much to go on and he didn’t show enough for me LTO, beaten too far out and his jumping was ponderous at times. That was a C3 novice chase up against 139/147 horses (marks obtained in the summer/British handicapper, an Irish 147 chaser would laugh at the pair of them no doubt) . The trip may have been sharp enough also, but again, he has stamina to prove. He’s back into a handicap here against lesser opposition on ratings, but I couldn’t be tempted in. I’d want to see more and him getting a bit closer before considering.

Shinobi makes chase debut, didn’t run in Points, just a bit too much guessing there in terms of jumping. He’s been hurdling a while but does turn up in form having won LTO, for all his form generally is so so and he’d need much more even if taking to chasing. A watching brief on him and if he takes, so be it.

Pace wise… hopefully Wagner tries to make all, although up in trip they won’t be ultra aggressive. Coral usually races up there but I can’t see Liam launching him at fences on his return to chasing, but he should lob along handy. Delight can race up there also, the rest slotting in behind. The fav will be mid division I suspect, Kabrit is usually anchored last and will run through horses/need them to come back to him. David Bass is usually aggressive but on chase debut, may not be so today, giving Shinobi time to get to grips with the game.

Wagner has no excuse not to run well today and if something is better treated/more class, so be it. On paper at the prices he’s the one I want onside. GL if following me in, not so much if you decide to go with something else! 🙂

That’s all for today,

Josh