Good Morning Friend
Paddy Power Gold Cup Pointers
As you know I'm always keen to try and provide you with various useful information and snippets that may both save you time and help you home in on a winner or two. Whether that's in my Members Club or the free content I post/send out.
Every Saturday I pull together an 'ITV Trends & Trainer Pointers' post, with a focus on one or two big handicaps, and a list of all ITV races and horses representing trainers to have won said race previously. This usually goes up by Friday lunchtime, giving members plenty of time to work their way through.
With that in mind below you can find my trends/stats profile for The Paddy Power Gold Cup - sometimes the winner is on the trends shortlist, sometimes it's on the 'trainers' list, and sometimes it's nowhere to be seen!! :) But there's always method to the madness..
2.15 Chelt – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase
13/234 runners, 52 pplaces (total sample size)
13/13 had 2+ runs at Cheltenham (0-1: 0/50, 9p)
13/13 had 0-3 handicap wins (4+: 0/48, 7p)
12/13 had 0-10 runs in handicaps (11+ : 1/77, 12p)
12/13 had 4-8 career wins (0-3: 1/53, 8p; 9+ : 0/22, 3p)
11/13 official rating 148< (149+ : 2/82, 16p)
11/13 ran Left handed LTO (RH: 2/60, 11p)
10/13 had run at G1 in career (had not: 3/86, 15p)
Other
- Oldest horse in race: 0/20,2p
- Top and Bottom weights (inc joint) : 0/44, 10p
Trainers
- NTD: 3/18, 6p
- P Nicholls: 2/31, 8p
- Jonjo O’Neill: 2/12,3p
- X1: G Moore, E Williams, E OGrady, K Lee, A King, D Pipe
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Applying the trends…
Looking at those with 2+ runs at the track, 0-10 runs in handicaps and 0-3 wins in handicaps leaves 12/13 (12/109, 31p) and IF (always an if) upholding would point to a longer list of eight…
Protektorat, Lalor, Al Dancer, Midnight Shadow, Galahad Quest, Paint The Dream, Up The Straight, Deyrann De Carjac
4-8 career wins has been a positive and applied to the above is 11/13 (11/76, 25p) and IF upholding would point to three…
Lalor, Al Dancer, Midnight Shadow
Applying the 148 rating cap to the long list above, points to four…
Midnight Shadow, Galahad Quest, Up The Straight, Deyrann De Carjac
Trainers (to have won race/with runners)
- Lalor, Simply The Betts
- Coole Cody
- Deyrann De Carjac
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With any luck the winner is there somewhere, and you may well land on them.
It looks as competitive a renewal on paper as I can remember in recent years, best of luck if you have a fancy.
All the best,
Josh |
