Good Morning, Friend
I hope you had a decent weekend, and well done if coming out ahead at Ascot on Champions Day. That looked hard work.
Cotswold Racing, who i've banged the drum plenty and follow myself, banged in Bayside Boy, a 40/1 BFSP winner, which lifted the mood somewhat. Kinross wasn't bad either. So, at least his followers had a good time of it, another profitable flat campaign.
I spent Saturday afternoon watching Ipswich Town at Portman Rd, having been invited by a couple of friends who are avid fans. Typically it was to be their first home defeat of the season, superb! My afternoon was compounded by the chaser I fancied running a shocker. It was one of those days, a mixed bag! Yesterday's football result lifted the mood somewhat :)
However, its a new week and we go again on the racing front.
Something for you to read...
Adam Norman's Racing Round-up
Below you can find Adam’s first ’round up’ article of the new season, touching on his recent racecourse visits. Adam’s long term edge comes from his paddock analysis/notes and here we get to peak through the window into his pro-punting world. These articles will follow every 1-2 weeks for members. I found it an enjoyable and informative read, and I hope you will too.
You may just enjoy flicking through while drinking a morning coffee or taking a lunchtime break. However, there are numerous nuggets for you to ponder and horses to add to trackers, if you so wish. I’m confident these articles will add to our enjoyment of this jumps season and add to our understanding of the great game. There are bound to be future winners mentioned below also, and horses to avoid, which is always useful…
Over to Adam…
Wetherby: October 12
Pretty drab fare, with small fields exacerbated by late non runners owing to the ground riding faster than described. There was very little to take from the meeting in terms of horses to follow but these early trips can tell us where the trainers are at with their winter horses.
Pam Sly’s Fransham looked short of peak fitness and drifted markedly in the betting, but this course specialist ran a cracker in the opener and will be in good shape for a crack at win number six here at the end of the month.
Romeo Brown was straighter than your average Sue Smith inmate at this time of year and his market drift looked unjustified prior to a bold front running effort. Collingham took the honours but it looks as though the handicapper was the winner here.
The juvenile hurdle won by Vintage Valley was one of the poorest you’ll see – there was little to look at beforehand and the only one with any size or scope looks as though he has plenty of ideas about the game – Highland Frolic not consenting to run on once asked for an effort at the top of the straight.
Plenty of summer horses still in good form and Saint Arvans looked to have the measure of Tardree when over jumping at the final fence. You’d doubt if the winner is kept on the go much longer but he jumped soundly in the main and remains unexposed over fences.
Whoshotthesheriff was the class in the race and he looked fit enough on his return but his jumping was rusty in the home straight and he’ll pick up a small race at some stage when things fall right for him, away from the worst of the ground. He is what he is.
Nicky Richards has his string in rude health, both summer and winter horses going well, and Caius Marcius was delivered late by Hughes to defeat four rivals, including Teescomponents Lad who is out for the season with a tendon injury. Snookered appeared to enjoy the slower pace and loomed up in the straight before running out of steam, so may be worth a look over around 2m5f.
Micky Hammond picked up the last two races but it’s hard to know what either achieved – probably nothing in excess of their current ratings.
Carlisle: October 13
Carlisle was more competitive the following day and Tommy’s Oscar looked pretty straight for this seasonal reappearance, overcoming a market drift to beat race fit Geromino by a narrow margin.
Below his best when last seen in the Champion Hurdle no less, the odds are he’ll fall below top class over fences but this was the perfect introduction and he looks to jump in a professional manner. A strong traveller, he’s undoubtedly a high class animal and it shows in the paddock.
Sandy Thomson’s runners tend to need their reappearance run but we can take nothing for granted and although I thought Salvino would come on for it, he’s not a very big horse and probably doesn’t take much getting ready. I thought B Lynn got there too soon and he may be capable of landing a maiden hurdle before returning to handicaps.
Jonjo O’Neill unleashed a couple of big money purchases in Springwell Bay and Saint Davy. The former overcame some dodgy jumps to beat a weak looking field in the novices hurdle – chief market rival Iorens isn’t much to look at – and this was routine stuff.
Much further back, Whataboutyeh did not catch the eye performance wise but Sam England has a staying chaser on her hands who is one to put in the locker for later in the season. He was carrying loads of overweight here and was totally outpaced. Fear not, we can be sure the horse will be handicapped over trips short of his best. If we have to wait another year before collecting, so be it.
Saint Davy was weak in the betting to take the bumper and was nicely on top after finding himself outpaced at the bottom of the hill. Compact and strong, he looked a stayer in the making and I’d expect him to start off over an intermediate trip when hurdling.
Runner-up Blue Ridge Hill surprised me with his effort as he looked big and burly. He wasn’t a bad looking sort though and he’s in good hands with Sam Drinkwater.
Small Present was well backed to win the handicap chase on only his second start over fences but the Smith horses really can’t be supported at this time of year and he never landed a blow. I think he wants a flatter track in any case.
Stylish Moment ran well for the in-form Lucinda Russell but he was a funny old horse in his early days at Alan King’s and is ultimately disappointing. He may well prove me wrong but I wouldn’t read much into this form and with a 2/30 record over obstacles I’ll be looking to take him on next time as he was more forward than many of these despite an absence.
Spot On Soph shaped with promise in the handicap hurdle and looks ready for a return to the larger obstacles, where she will operate from a higher mark. However, tighter tracks suit this handy mare and she can continue to build on last season’s efforts.
Getaway Luv was a first runner for Sean Quinlan’s wife Lizzie but the seven-year-old didn’t look fit in the 2m handicap chase and the market wasn’t wrong on this occasion. I like the profile of the horse though and he’s on a winning mark.
Wheelbahri did a lot of winning when ridden forcefully in the spring and things will be harder this season, but he’s a big strong horse and further success wouldn’t come as a shock. He was almost too fresh for this run and was repeatedly taken on for the lead, so I’d be happy to forgive the run.
Check My Pulse almost fell in here despite typically hitting a fence and I’m not sure he’d be up to a repeat.
Market Rasen: October 15
Market Rasen rounded off the week’s action and proceedings began with a good paddock for the novice hurdle but nothing would portend the events that followed.
Broadway Boy, a strapping chase type making his racecourse debut for the Twisters, was strong in the betting all day before being backed from 4s on the show to even money. I thought he looked a bit green for that kind of punt and it probably cost him in the race, being very novicey throughout.
BOG backers of eventual winner Let’s Have Another were the beneficiaries, pocketing returns of 8/1 after being chalked up at 9/4 early doors. I didn’t mind him at all in the paddock –indeed he looked the fittest and most forward of the quartet.
The outgoing favourite Free Handshake was already on the drift after looking to be carrying condition beforehand, but he was pushed right out after becoming fractious down at the gate and forcing a false start. He’d used up plenty of energy by the time the tapes went up and he ran out of puff before two out – I doubt if anything was wrong and he’d be worth another chance, although I didn’t think his form justified short odds in any case.
The disparity in price was also surprising in race two as Kracka Nut and Ontherouge were similar types, medium, compact individuals. Skelton’s looked more forward physically and had the run of the race, tracking the jolly before pouncing with a decent turn of foot. They pottered round though and the form may be suspect, however eventual third Wonderweasle loomed up two from home before weakening and she has enough size about her to remain interesting this season – she was carrying plenty of condition.
Harbour Lake won’t be missed in the market when he turns up in a better race next time having now won all four completed starts but he’s a likeable youngster with still plenty of filling out to do. I like his attitude and turn of foot.
He denied Nicky Richards another winner when getting on top of Big Bad Bear close home but the Cumbrian raider didn’t leave empty handed – the previously disappointing Snowy Clouds making all on his first start over fences. Time may tell Dibble Decker had enough on conceding 24lb.
The big race went to Kiltealy Briggs who has filled into his large frame but didn’t look anywhere near fit so his was a remarkable effort and he could just be well handicapped as he never does much in front.
By contrast, Killer Clown was fit enough and looks in the assessor’s grip, Guy also seemingly rated correctly without being able to find any improvement – he lacks the substance to be better than he is although some cheekpieces may help.
There was a low grade handicap chase in which the favourites William Cody and Isle Of Aron made very little appeal on account of their small stature – particularly the latter named who duly jumped appallingly.
Notimeforanother made the long journey from Keith Dalgleish’s yard and looked much the best in the paddock before a junior bumper, but the leggy Fiercely Proud showed plenty of speed to seal it quite early in the straight for Don Cantillon who is a dab hand in these races.
The form may be okay for the time of year and I’d expect the runner-up to gain compensation, while the third horse Tedtwo has plenty of size and scope and will relish the step up to two miles.
Thanks for reading, Adam.
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Tomorrow I'll be sending you my 'stats' bible for the season ahead, which I've no completed.
Have a great start to your week,
Josh
