Hello Friend,

I've had a small dabble in the 4.30 Punchestown, with what is now the outsider of the field. I may well look a fool for opposing Galvin, we shall see... tip as of 9am...

4.30 Punch – Lord Lariat – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 18/1 (gen)

Lord Lariat – this poke may amount to little but I thought he was overpriced here. He’s won fresh and gone close on seasonal return previously and when last seen was putting in a career best, winning the Irish National easily enough and posting a 156 RPR. He looked like a stayer worth keeping onside that day and it will be fascinating to see what he can achieve this season.

He’s a course winner over fence and he’s arguably open to the most progress out of today’s opposition. It’s hard to know where his ceiling may be, having apparently strengthened again over the summer. He prefers bouncing off decent, safe, ground with a bit of juice and there’s a chance he gets an uncontested lead here, can get into a rhythm, gets some breathers in and put his assured stamina to good use. His jumping was very good at Fairyhouse.

Of course, this may be a prep run for something/he may need it, but he was being primed for the Kerry National which he didn’t take up (i’m not sure why, maybe too quick) so with any luck he’s a1 here. His trainer can ready them if desired and if a1 would be a lively outsider here, receiving 12lb from the fav also. I thought if he was going to win a graded chase, today would be the day, given I think there are questions over the opposition at the prices. Connections may be hoping he’s better than a handicapper in time and today will tell them plenty.

Galvin – well he could decimate them of course, and if running up to his rating he would win this well enough, even having to give away that weight. He got on top late in this race last year on his seasonal return, the two Mullins horses having taken each other on for most of the race and setting it up for him, for all comfortable enough come the line. That wasn't a great race but then I suppose neither is this. Gordon has been vocal in saying how Down Royal is his Gold Cup, so much so it makes me wonder whether he’s left a bit to work on and doesn’t want him leaving his race here today. Of course he may not need to be anywhere near peak fitness to win, but I thought he could be vulnerable today, for all he could just fall in. But I wanted to oppose him. (he’ll no doubt win hard held!)

Run Wild Fred – he’s yet to win on his seasonal return in three attempts, for all he’s run well a few times but has always come on plenty for the return. After 2 falls when last seen it may be a case of wanting a clear round with other targets down the line. He is only 1/13 chasing and that win was in a handicap. It could be they can get his mark down a little bit more and plunder another big handicap pot, as it remains to be seen if he can make it into graded class, for all he is open to further progress this season. I was happy for him to beat me at 4s as I wasn’t sure what to expect, and I wasn’t sure if he’d be fit enough.

Battleoverdoyen – hmm, well he’s fit and a chance this has been a little plan, his last run, after a short break, a prep. While he retains some ability he clearly isn’t as good as he once was, for all a former G1 winner. His new owners paid 67k for him in September, which beggars belief to my eyes but what do I know. Gigginstown must have been delighted. He could take this I suppose, but I think he’s best over a bit shorter and there are stronger stayers on paper in this. He can also idle badly when in front for too long and may not have the class now. However, his race fitness may count for plenty if the rest need it badly, which isn’t an impossible scenario. But not enough there for me at 11/2.

Politesse wasn’t a big enough price for me either, for all she’s an admirable mare but only rated 136, and no doubt the selection’s form is better. However, I suspect she’ll be A1 for this and it could count for something, even from this rating. She overhauled Battleoverdoyen late at Galway last time, staying on well, but I didn’t think she’d be good enough today and will live with it at the price. She’s a likeable mare who could have more handicaps in her from this mark, but I’d like to think this is a step to far, and given she beat the one above last time, that tempered my enthusiasm for him also in a race like this. But I could have both of them wrong.

The 80/1 outsider looks up against it. (now a non-runner)

Pace wise… well Lord Lariat should race up there if here to run his race, and with any luck he bounces out, jumps like a stag and builds up a lead. Leading, and getting some breathers in, will help him, esp if not fully tuned up, and he may get away with it. In any case, he looked worth a small dabble at 18s to find out, as I wanted to oppose the top end, time will tell whether I'm an idiot for doing so. If he’s going to beat Galvin, it could be today, and connections will know where they stand after this. Could he make up into a Grand National horse?

Good luck if following me in,

Josh