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Latest Results since launch can be found below:-
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Thoughts on performance to date…
To be blunt the headline stats since launch do not make for pretty reading, although far from disastrous…
67 bets / 7 winners / 21 places (includes winners)
-7.2 points to ‘My Verdict’ Stakes
-11.7 points to ‘1 point win all selections’ stakes
-9.4 points to 1 point win when under 5/1 and 0.5 pt EW when 5/1+
Win Strike Rate 10.44%, Win/Place Strike Rate 31%
I am conscious the majority of you missed the 16/1 winner on day 2.
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It is safe to say that overall performance, both since launch and since the start of the season, has been a story of two halves… those that have been relatively fancied by the market, and those that have not. Clearly overall performance has not been anywhere near expectations.
There has been a clear divide for those that have gone off under 10/1 as opposed to those with an SP of 10/1 or higher. This clear difference to date isn't something I expected and some changes need to be made moving forward to my staking, and how I deal with those 10/1+.
The stats for those that are fancied should give us all confidence for the remainder of the season, and plenty to ponder moving forward with the bigger priced selections.
The stats for those selections with an SP under 10/1, to 1 point win bets are…
Since Launch: 28 bets / 6 wins / 15 places (inc wins) / +5.8 points
This sequence has included second places at 15/2, 8/1, 6/1, 4/1, 11/2, 8/1. In my opinion at least 3 of those could be described as potential winners that got away.
But, that is racing, and I am a believer that these things even themselves out over the course of a season.
That is a near enough 54% win and place strike rate. A 21% win strike rate. 12 of the 28 (43%) have been in the Top 2.
Since the start of the season, including selections before launch, the stats for those with an SP under 10/1, to 1 point win bets now read…
51 bets / 11 winners / 28 places (inc wins) / +29.3 points
This 55% win/place strike rate is decent. The 21% win SR is ok, and if say 4 of those 17 placed horses had won we would be on a 30% win strike rate.
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This clearly contrasts with those that have not been well fancied. The majority of the team have the odd ‘clunker’ in their profiles and I suppose it has been no surprise that a lot of those that have run badly this season have either drifted or stayed static in the market, but gone off at 10/1 or over.
The stats for those that are 10/1+ SP are nothing short of dire at the moment; although with a bit more luck the losses could have been negated.
Since Launch, 10/1+, 1 point win bets: 39 bets / 1 win / 6 places / -22 points
These results include seconds at 20/1, 20/1, 12/1 and 10/1.
A couple of those were agonising and could have been worth 22 points, but that would still leave us on even for those bets. Clearly when playing at those odds you would expect a much lower strike rate but so far it has been a bit too poor, although in the grand scheme of things is a small sample and a run of big priced winners couldn't be ruled out.
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So, what to do moving forwards…
Well hopefully those stats for horses under 10/1 come the off give you some confidence moving forwards. It is tempting just to bet on those in truth. With a bit more luck that +5.8 points could easily have been higher.
I think betting 1 point EW on those under 10/1 would have only been worth 3 more points. +16 points in place money on top of the results so far, -13 points from those that have not placed. Sticking to win only bets appears the way forward with those.
The real conundrum is what to do with the bigger priced horses. Clearly I would have liked those stats to have been healthier but so far the market has been a key guide for when a horse is going to run its ‘clunker’ – which a lot have in the locker each season. The odd poor run per horse is to be expected, with the aim that over the course of the season a profile horse will win once or twice (or more) in conditions and will end up in profit. Not many have a higher than 50% win strike rate in conditions so we will clearly be backing losers – it is clearly about getting better at identifying which ones to avoid – and price appears to be a significant guide so far. For only 6 of the 39,1 win, (15%) to have run any kind of race is not healthy moving forwards – not to my eyes anyway, although you would expect a few more big priced winners at some point. This means agonising losing runs and lots of patience, and so far many lost points. Clearly I need to be more decisive in how to approach these bets.
Given the stats above it makes no sense to place the same staking amount on those under 10/1, as it is with all those over 10/1.
You will have read when I highlight a horse’s chance that I often include the ‘odds stats’ and maybe I need to pay more attention to those. If say, we had placed ¼ point win bets on all those 10/1+ we would be looking at losses of -5.75, as opposed to -22 to 1 point win bets. Using that range of staking is an option, as is making a firm decision not to bet on more of the ‘unfancied ones’ and when to bet EW. That emotional fear does of course loom that as soon as I change course, the big priced winners will start to go in, eradicating those losses.
For now I will continue to play it on a horse by horse basis, and for now My Verdict staking will never come to more than 1 point. But clearly making better judgements on these 'unfancied' horses is required as I have no concerns on those under 10/1 moving forwards. If those stats continue as they have been for the past couple of months that group of horses should be very profitable come the end of the season, especially with a bit more luck.
Of course ‘My Verdict’ has only ever been a guide and I provide as much relevant information about the horse as possible, to allow you to bet as you please, for those that want to. Hopefully with the information above this will help in any future decisions you make when betting.
As always your comments, thoughts, questions via email are welcome,
Let's hope we start backing a few more fancied horses, such as in the past couple of days,
Josh
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