Hello Friend Well consistent runs and second/third places are a sign that the principle is intact (predicting when horses will run well based on past performance) but they do start to get tiresome and hopefully some of these will start winning soon. I feel like that was Jan Smuts' race to win but appeared to get going too late and ran out of track over 2m -- frustrating! Sadly the other two ran like most horses we have backed at 10/1+ although for a moment Ralphy Boy looked like he was coming to make a challenge before fading. We go again tomorrow looking to end what has been a frustrating run of bar rattling. Those horses that are relatively fancied continue to run their races and the winners will not be far away. 30/06/15 2.45 Hamilton Uncle Brit Ideal Cond. 8f-9.5f; OR60 or below ; 1-120 days Form in Cond. 1,1,2,1,6,7 3,1 (0/12, 1 place outside) Positives. This more recent addition to the team (after his win this season and in the update report) has his conditions again. Having won off OR59 this mark of OR58 should not be a problem. All race conditions fine and on only the 5th start for this trainer could be open to more improvement. The booking of Graham Lee suggests he isn't here to make up the numbers. For a hold up horse there also looks to be plenty of pace on. Negatives. None in terms of his profile and suitability to race conditions. My Verdict: 1 point win (range from 13/2-8/1, use odds checker)
5.00 Brighton Siouxperhero Ideal Cond. July and August, C5 or below, 8f+ Form in Cond. 1,2,3,13,3,7,1,1,1,1,1
(1/16, 4 places outside) Positives. Well you will have noticed that it is not quite July but for the sake of 1 day I think it is best to be flexible. He usually comes to himself at this time of year and there were signs on his last run to indicate that would be the case this season. All race conditions fine and he is 1/4, 2 places over CD. He is handicapped to go well. He is actually 5/7 in fields of 1-7 and you could make a case just to back him on that basis. Unlike a few of those we have been backing recently he has won a couple of times when relatively unfancied, so unless there is a massive drift the price does not concern me. Negatives. None in terms of profile and suitability to race conditions. It may be that he peaks a bit further into the month of July but he ticks plenty of boxes for this. My verdict. 1 point win (10/1 - 12/1) It does looks a competitive little race for the grade but he will pop in at some point in the next couple of months and lets hope it is tomorrow.
7.40 Chepstow Pick A Little Ideal Cond. 1-11 runners, April, May, June Form in Cond. 1,1,1,9,2,3,3, 1,1,5, 2 (0/27, 1 place outside) Positives. Has his conditions again and has been running well, going agonisingly short last time when defeated by a neck. Another of those seconds! He gets Richard Kingscote on board today who is 2/2 on him. He usually drops off after June so this could well be the last time to catch him. A repeat of his last run will see him go close. He is creeping up the weights but did win off OR72 back in 2013 so this mark of 71 should not be beyond him. Negatives. None. My Verdict. 1 point win 2/1 (general)
*** Non-Qualifiers Annaluna (8.10 Chepstow) - so far this horse has only run well when returning within 16-30 days (4/5, 5 places) 0/7, 3 places outside this. He is still unexposed on the turf and is 4/7 over 2m, and 2/3 over tomorrow's CD, including this race last year. Is in not sort of form this season but while he doesn't have his conditions based on what he has done to date, there are a few positives there for your information. 9Euroquip Boy (9.10 Chepstow)
*** All the best, Josh
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