Hello Friend

Apologies I missed out a qualifier from the earlier email...

8.45 Muss Ralphy Boy

Ideal Cond. 16-30 days, 7f or 1m

Form in Cond. 3,1,2,1,3, 1,9 (1/28 6 places outside)

Positives. He has his conditions again and so far has developed a clear rest pattern. He was on the tracker list before his win this season and then didn't run very well at Chester.(9) However his record in C3 handicaps now reads 0/9 1 place and he is confirming himself as a C4 horse at best.  He is back into C4 here. As such you could make an excuse for all of his runs since his last win, even though they have been poor. He is back down to his last winning mark and the jockey takes off another 5lb. The jockey is 0/5, 2 places on the horse. He is 1/3, 2 places over CD.

Negatives. Well his form has to be a concern but as I have said you can make excuses for those runs due to the class and running outside of his rest pattern. He is currently 12/1 and so far is 0/8,4 places when 17/2 - 12/1. Over 12/1 is 0/10, 1 place, so any drift would be a slight concern.  

My Verdict. 1  point win 12/1.  At this level and in this rest pattern he usually runs his race. There are 3 places at the moment if you prefer backing EW but I think I will stick to win only for this one. There is plenty in his favour and if he is going to bounce back it should be in these conditions. He is handicapped to go well.

***

Josh

p.s I will be sending updated results at the end of the month and will obviously reflect on performance to date etc. This will be with you Wednesday or Thursday this week.