Hello Friend
Firstly it is sad to report that poor old Boom And Bust paid the ultimate price and had to be put down at Sandown.
Yesterday was awful punting wise. The ground remained Good to Firm at Newmarket and as such I bet 1 point on MCT to win. On this occasion the market drift was a negative and he ran so poorly it is hard to judge his handicap mark and whether it is too high at the moment. Maybe he didn't like the track but he ran like the drift suggested he might. Fathom Five was disappointing again and he could never get to the front. Maybe it is time I left him alone now. He will run again before the end of June but I will face that dilemma when it arrives, he is 11 and quite possibly he has slowed down a bit too much in the last 12 months. There was a deluge at Brighton with the ground going from Good to Firm to Soft within a couple of hours. In all honesty if he was 3/1 and I knew it was soft the evening before I would have still backed him - mainly because he had yet to prove he couldn't handle soft as he had only raced on it a couple of times in handicaps. However, given how he ran yesterday, it looks like he needs it to be good at least.
5/24, 10 placed = + 11 points
Onto today...
3.00 Chester Navajo Chief
Ideal Cond. 121+ days off track Form in Cond. 1,1,1
Positives. He is making his seasonal return after a break and this is usually the time when you can predict how well he is going to run with some confidence. Class, distance, handicap mark, field size etc are all fine. He is also well drawn and should have no problems tracking the pace and waiting for the cutaway up the home straight. Also 3/5, 4 places in May.
Negatives. The going is a slight concern. His form in handicaps on Good to Firm is 0/8, 1 place. His only win on it was in his early career in a novice stakes race. His form on Good is fine. However, he has placed in a 20 runner race on good to firm and has yet to run on it after a break. His record on Good to Soft reads.. 1,2,1,1,1,1.
My Verdict. 1 point win 6/1 general (13/2 PP) I am concerned by the going but as he has yet to run on it after a break, I will take a chance. We have the fallback of backing him on Good to Soft in the future as well if today isnt the day.
4.10 Chester Kashgar
Ideal Cond. 16-30 days rest, Good to Firm - Good to Soft
Form in Cond. 3,1,1,4,2,1,3,1, 7 (1/12, 4 places outside of this)
Positives. He has his conditions and all race conditions are fine. Also 2/4, 3 places at the track. He is 1/4, 2 places in the 14/1 to 20/1 bracket so I wont be too put off by the market. He does have an inexperienced jockey on top but he is 1/1 at the track.
Negatives. The jury is out on his handicap mark as he is 4lb above his highest winning mark, which was his last win. His last run was poor but he has yet to run that well at Ascot and it is possible he doesn't like the track. He is drawn wide here which is tricky and his race could well be decided in the first furlong and what position he can get.
My Verdict. 1/2 point EW 20/1 (general) He has generally been consistent in his conditions and the price allows an EW bet. It will be hard for him from that draw but it isnt impossible and bar that there are no reasons to suggest he wont run his race.
In the 5.15 York, Keep It Dark runs. His profile is in races with 1-11 runners, there are currently 16 lining up - but if there are 5+ non runners he would be a bet!
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Those running that do not have their ideal conditions:- - Hopes N Dreams, Gran Caneria Queen (2.25 Chester)
- English Summer (4.10 Chester)
- Strandfield Lady (4.15 Navan)
- Gold Beau, Kalk Bay, Keep it Dark, Piceno (5.15 York)
- Sarangoo, Uncle Dermot (7.15 Chepstow)
- If I Were A Boy (7.45 Chepstow)
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Good Luck, Josh
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