Hello Friend

25/05/15

4.20 Carlisle Mercers Row

Ideal Cond. May, OR<70

Form in Cond. 7,1,1,7,2,3,1... 1 (1/30, 7 places outside these)

Positives. Has ideal conditions again, is still handicapped to win (has won from OR69), is in form and won this race last year from effectively a 2lb lower mark. (raced off OR65 last year but with 7lb claim, as opposed to 5lb claim today)

Negatives. Takes step back up to C5 level. 2/27, as opposed to 3/9 in C6, however one of those was this race last season. The ground is a slight worry. 0/13, 3 places on Good to Firm in handicaps. However he has yet to conclusively prove that he doesn't handle it and has finished a neck second and also won his maiden on Good to Firm.

My Verdict. 1 point win (6/1 SkyB, 9/2-5/1 others) Has his conditions again and owes us nothing having won at 16/1 last time out. I suspect this will be the last time we back him as he is a May horse. There is no reason to think he won't run his race again.

That is all for today,

Josh