Hello Friend
Jan Smuts was poor and there is not much more to add. Never in the race at all which was disappointing.
Results since live: 2/11, 5/11 Top 3 = +13 points to advised stakes
20/05/15
2.50 Ayr Fathom Five
Ideal Cond. April, May, June; C3 or below Form in Cond. 9,1,1,1,1,8,9,9,10,1,3,1,1,1,19,13... 13, 5, 6, 5, 2 (bold is runs this season) (0/47, 12 places outside of this)
Positives. Has his ideal conditions again and looked to be coming back to form last time, having looked out of sorts. As an 11yo he was getting close to last chance saloon territory but his run last time means I cannot ignore him tomorrow.
Negatives. None from a profile perspective and race conditions are fine. Clearly he isn't getting any younger.
My Verdict. 1 point win (6/1 B365, Betfair Sportsboook) The market has not fully formed as yet but it is reassuring that he is more prominent in the market. He should also be able to dictate from the front. He has lost me 1.5 points so far but if he can build on his run last time he could put that right.
4.20 Ayr Cool Baranca
Ideal Cond. Soft, 1m6f+ Form in Cond. 2,1,2,1 (0/24, 3 places, outside of this in flat handicap)
Positives. Has his ideal conditions. All other race conditions fine.
Negatives. It is possible the ground dries out which would not be ideal.(Good to soft in places mentioned, although officially Soft) He is also 2lb above his highest winning mark on the flat, although that win was by 2L. Has been in very poor form over jumps.
My Verdict. 1/2 point EW (12/1 Bet365) The market has yet to fully form but I will go EW at 12/1 or above. His recent form, handicap mark and slight niggle that it may not be soft enough,temper my enthusiasm for a win only bet. According to race conditions as they are at the moment he has his ideal conditions.
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6 Profile Horses ran outside of their ideal conditions today and were all beaten.
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Enjoy your evening,
Josh
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