Hello Friend
News of a qualifier tomorrow and four new Flat Profiles to add to the team.
19/05/15
4.20 Newcastle: Jan Smuts
Ideal Cond: 16f; May; 1-30 Days Form in Cond: 1,1,5,7,1, 10 (0/28, 11 places outside this)
Positives: Has his ideal conditions. Won this race last year off effectively a 7lb higher mark. Last year's win in this race is his only one at C5 level. (1/16 C5)
Negatives: None from a profile perspective or suitability to race conditions. I personally find it a bit strange that a senior professional jockey has not been employed but I wont try and second guess connections. He was very poor last time out and even though it turned soft, which was not ideal, he had ran well on it before and I am not sure if that was a valid excuse.
My Verdict: 1 point win (9/1 Bet365, SkyBet). He has his ideal conditions and won this race last year which, along with the odds, swayed me against backing him EW.
For Information: La Bacouetteuse runs in the same race. He is a Musselburgh horse and is 3/28, 7 places outside of his conditions. However he has won at Newcastle and in terms of the race conditions his profile is fine. However he is not a 'Flat Profiles' bet tomorrow.
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Hot Spice runs in the 3.00 and if it were Good to Firm would be a qualifier. However it is Good, Good to Soft in places. Having checked the weather there is plenty of rain around and I can't see it being good to firm.
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Results since Live: 10 bets / 2 wins / +14 points to advised stakes 5/10 have placed in the top 3 including a 3rd at 7/1 and 2nds at 20/1 and 7/1
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Click the link below for four new profiles. These have been added to the team immediately and will be highlighted when running in their ideal conditions...
That is all for today, enjoy your evening,
Josh
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