Hello Friend
04/08/15
2.30 Salisbury Jungle Bay
Ideal Cond. July + August, C5 or below Form in Cond. 1,2,1,1 (0/20, 4 places outside)
Positives. Has conditions and is 3/9, 6 places in C5. Ground is fine. Distance ok, 1/12,2 places over 6f, 2/10, 5 places over 7f.
Negatives. He is still 2lb above his highest winning turf mark and has been in awful form. He did win off this mark on the AW. Even accounting for higher class he hasnt been running well. He is 0/7, 0 places when priced 14/1 or above. In saying that he has won on the AW at 20s.
My Verdict. No Bet. A difficult one but he appears to be unfancied (20/18 /1) and his recent form has been too poor, and it is only 14 days since his last run. The blinkers do return but I would want to see a bit more that he was about to bounce back. If he is backed that could be a sign, but our big priced selections have been running as the market suggests they would in general.
***
4.45 Catt Solar Spirit
Ideal Cond. Catterick; 6f or 7f; Class 4<£6k; 1-30 days; OR81 or less Form in Cond. 2,2,1,4,8,1,3,1,9,1,1, 3, 3 (0/73, 20 places outside)
Positives. Has his idea conditions again and drops into C5 where he is 3/9, 7 places. Has ran well twice in conditions already this season. He is 3/13, 9 places over CD and usually runs his race.
Negatives. None. Obviously not getting any younger but has shown enough this season to suggest he can still win.
My Verdict. 1 point win 7/1 (general)
***
8.05 Ripon Dr Irv
Ideal Cond. 1-8 runners, OR70 or below Form in Cond. 6,3,1,1,1,1, 2 (0/34, 11 places outside)
Positives. Well he has his conditions again and is 3/6, 6 places with 1-7 runners.
Negatives. All wins have been when 6/1 or below. 0/19, 3 places above this price and currently 12/1. He has been frustrating and is 0/7 for his latest trainer to date. There are also quite a few unexposed and progressive horses in here. He is 2/16 in C4.
My Verdict. No bet. I would like to see some money and for him to be fancied before backing him again. Currently 12/1. There is plenty of time for the money to come but it would appear that today isnt the day.
*** Non Qualifiers
-Valatino Oyster (2.45 Catt) Has changed yard and could be campaigned differently now. -Byrd In Hand (3.30 Salis) -Jan Smuts (4.15 Catt) -Orwellian (4.45 Catt)
*** Josh
| 